1
00:00:00,700 --> 00:00:09,899
Now, the first answer is two-third, and the reason is we observed A once, and this was all we observed.
2
00:00:09,900 --> 00:00:13,666
So maximum life would give us a probability of one, but because we used Laplacian smoothing,
3
00:00:13,667 --> 00:00:19,066
and there's two different possible states, we add one, as before, which makes two-thirds.
4
00:00:19,067 --> 00:00:28,632
Two-thirds is also the correct answer for the next question. There's one, two, three, four transitions out of A,
5
00:00:28,633 --> 00:00:37,299
three of which leads to A again. So maximum life would give us three-quarters, but because we do Laplacian smoothing,
6
00:00:37,300 --> 00:00:42,999
we add one fake transition over here, and there could've been two of those, one to A and one to B, we had two over here,
7
00:00:43,000 --> 00:00:49,632
which is four over six or two over three. And there's no transition out of B in this example.
8
00:00:49,633 --> 00:00:57,199
So for maximum life we wouldn't even know what to say. But in our case, with Laplacian smoothing, we add one fake observation
9
00:00:57,200 --> 00:01:01,667
divided by two as a denominator, so we get half for the last question.