WEBVTT

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I'm really excited to be here;

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I'm excited to talk with you all,

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share some of what I know, 
some of what I've learned.

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But I'm also kind of confused.

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Because in my mind, TED Talks,
TEDx Talks, TEDxYouth Talks,

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they're given by people
with a path and a vision.

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And I still have no idea 
what I want to be when I grow up.

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I've been putting off having to choose.

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When I was very small,
I was told that I was smart.

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And not just any kind of smart:

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I was told that I was scientifically
and mathematically inclined,

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as opposed to someone like my brother

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who was deemed talented
in things like language and art.

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I was told, "Girls can too,"

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which was a phrase meant to inspire me

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to keep studying mathematics
and go into the hard sciences.

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I was told about my dad's work
for the Air Force,

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about how he always wished
he had completed his pilot's license,

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and how when he was a kid,
he used to build rockets.

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I was told bedtime stories
of Shannon Lucid and Sally Ride,

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and if I wanted to stay up late
to watch a shuttle launch,

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my parents let me.

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It's no surprise that I wanted
to be an astronaut.

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At five,

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I could have told you I wanted to earn
my bachelor's degree from Annapolis,

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become a jet jockey,

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and then apply to NASA.

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Everyone was so proud
and so impressed at this little kid

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with this well-thought-out
and well-researched life.

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But when I was 14,
I stopped really caring about school.

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Our country was two years into a new war,


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and as I started to learn
more about the military,

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I realized I didn't want to be
a part of that system.

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Despite being one of the most common paths
to becoming an astronaut,

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I started to find
I didn't want to go Annapolis,

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I didn't want to be a jet jockey,

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I didn't want to become an astronaut.

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This thing,

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this goal that I had been pointed at
by parents and teachers and friends,

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this piece of my identity,

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was suddenly gone.

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I had lost my destiny.

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I felt like such a disappointment,

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like whatever I did
for the rest of my life,

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no matter how well I did it,

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it would always be in the shadow
of this monumental failure,

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a failure to even get started.

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Luckily, the grownups
weren't completely wrong.

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I still depend on mankind's number one
evolutionary advantage:

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our brains.

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We don't have the biggest brains
in the animal kingdom,

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not by a long shot.

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But this is the prefrontal cortex,

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and we've evolved to have really big ones
when compared to the rest of our brains.

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The prefrontal cortex is responsible

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for everything that we think
that make us different from other animals.

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It's responsible for executive function.

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It's responsible
for our ability to empathize,

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our ability to think ahead and plan,

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predict what's going to happen
in the future.

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It's responsible for social control.

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Our really big prefrontal cortexes
makes us problem-solving machines.

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We're decisions makers.

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When presented with a list of options,

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we're not only able to quickly
and efficiently make a choice,

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but we're able to generate new options

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from outside of
the originally defined set.

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Think of all of the choices
that you're making right now,

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just sitting in this theater.

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You're choosing not to get up
and start dancing.

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You're choosing to listen.

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You're choosing not to wet your pants,

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(Laughter)

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I hope.

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(Laughter)

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Most of these choices

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your brain makes without you having
to devote any conscious awareness to them.

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But some choices, like what to be
when you will grow up,

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are a much, much bigger deal.

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Since closing the door
on being an astronaut,

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my education background
has been in economics, political science,

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mathematics, neuroeconomics
and neurobiology.

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Which basically means

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when I was presented
with a list of majors in college,

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I just refused to make a decision

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and looked for the box
marked "All of the above."

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(Laughter)

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But I'm going to let you in
on a little secret.

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It turns out that economics,
neuroscience and political science

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all actually study the exact same thing,

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which is, Why do people make
the decisions that they make,

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sometimes even working
against their own best interest?

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We see people working minimum-wage jobs
voting against minimum-wage hikes.

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We see parents refusing to vaccinate
their otherwise healthy kids

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despite the fact that
that is evolutionary disadvantageous

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at both the individual
and societal levels.

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We see teenagers who've been bombarded
with anti-smoking information

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their whole lives,

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who know the risks
associated with smoking,

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start anyway.

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And we as a society are so confused
about why people would do these things

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that we use science and social science

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and TED Talks and crystal balls
and mathematics

NOTE Paragraph

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to figure out why.

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Why would people do these things?

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And everybody does this.

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No one is immune from these breaks
in what economists call "rationality."

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We all have things that can show us
predictably biased choices.

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I'm going to give you an example.

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Let's play a game.

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I'm going to flip a coin -
it's a fair coin.

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If the first flip comes up heads,
you get two dollars.

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I flip it again;

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if it comes up heads a second time,
you get four dollars.

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A third time, eight dollars.

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Fourth, 16, until the coin comes up tails.

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And then I pay you your money.

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So if the coin comes up heads five times
in a row before the first tails,

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you get 32 dollars.

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If it come up 20 times in a row
before your first tails,

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you get over a million dollars.

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So think to yourself,

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how much would you be willing to pay
to play this game?

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If you're like most people,

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you'd be willing to pay
less than 25 dollars.

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But if you played this game forever,

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you would be expected to make
an infinite amount of money,

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no matter how much you paid per game.

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This game has an infinite expected value,

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and yet everybody has a point,
a number usually really low,

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that they'd no longer
be willing to pay to play.

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Here's another one.

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It's like getting your eyes
checked at the eye doctor:

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I'm going to present A or B, and you'll
tell me which one you think is better.

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So A, I give you a million dollars,

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just like that.

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Cold million, you walk away,
go home, it's wonderful.

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Or B,

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you can take a gamble.

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There's an 89% chance
of winning a million dollars,

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a 1% chance of winning nothing -
you walk home empty-handed -

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and a 10% chance
at winning five million dollars.

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Which would you choose?

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If you're like most people,
you'd actually choose A -

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no risk, no gamble,

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you just walk away with the cold million.

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Here's the next one: choice C.

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There's a 89% chance
of getting zero dollars

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and an 11% chance of getting a million,

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or D, there's a 90% chance
of getting zero dollars

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and a 10% chance of getting five million.

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This time, if you're like most people,

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you'd pick D and hope
for the five million.

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But if we do some quick math,

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we actually find that
the first two choices are equivalent.

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and that when it's framed one way,

NOTE Paragraph

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you pick A,

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and when it's framed another way,

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you pick D.

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Just based on how the information
is presented to you,

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I can get you to pick door number one
or door number two.

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And the weird thing is
that making any other decision

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probably feels really wrong.

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It turns out that intuition
and economic rationality

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don't always agree.

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So these are just two economic examples
of biases in decision making.

NOTE Paragraph

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It turns out that
there's actually a lot of factors

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that can predictably bias
what we choose.

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The first was an example

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of inappropriately weighting
small probabilities.

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There's less than a 3% chance

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that you'll win at least $32
in the quarter-flipping game,

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and as a result, we have a hard time
even taking into account

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the chance of making a million.

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This same bias is seen in people
who fail to vaccinate their kids.

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If your unvaccinated child
only has a 5% chance of getting sick,

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it's really hard to take into account

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the possible consequences
of them not being vaccinated,

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which could be as high
as the child's life.

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The second example is of a framing effect.

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This affects everything
from what cereal we buy at the store

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to how we report judgments
of our own emotions.

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For example, you're much more likely
to report being happy

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if I ask, "Are you happy?"

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than if I ask, "Are you unhappy?"

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Other biases include
aversion to uncertainty

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and making choices that try to avoid it.

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We can miss out on
some really great opportunities

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by trying to avoid unknown unknowns.

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We're also biased by the number
of options that are presented to us.

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Having a wide range of options,
it turns out, isn't always better.

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It can make deciding harder

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and actually affect both our levels
of happiness and anxiety.

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So how do these biases
affect big decisions

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like what to be when you grow up?

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We're going to do
some quick audience participation.

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Raise your hand if you've ever been told

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that you can be anything
you want to be when you grow up.

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Yeah? You can put your hands down.

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Being told that you can be anything 
you want feels pretty good.

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It feels like you can live your life

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according to your own rules,
your owns wants, your own goals.

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Like you can become
the person you want to be:

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proud, successful, happy.

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It give you a feeling
of agency over your life,

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a feeling of freedom.

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Life is an open field,

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and you can go anywhere you want to go.

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But humans don't have infinite time.

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While you may be able
to do anything you want,

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you probably won't be able
to do everything you want.

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Having to choose between so many options

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can be anxiety inducing
and detrimental to our happiness.

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We as humans hate eliminating options,

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even if we know that
that's not a path we want to choose.

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We feel like we're losing out on something

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simply by giving up
the possibility of something.

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I want you to raise you hand
if you're even been told

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anything similar to one of the statements
that I'm about to say.

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Just put your hand up and leave it, okay?

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If you put your mind to it,
you could be really great at blank.

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Whatever that is for you.

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If you dedicate your life to it,

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you could help cure cancer

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or do some other difficult
and yet very specific feat.

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If you really try,

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you could win a Nobel Prize
or an Olympic gold medal or an Oscar.

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How about this one?

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You'd make a really great astronaut.

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(Laughter)

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You can put your hands down.

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These statements are very different
from the first statement.

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Well, both are meant
to motivate and inspire.

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The first instills a sense
of freedom and agency.

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The second implies a responsibility
to the path that's been laid out.

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If this person is right,

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and I could help cure cancer
if I just devote my entire life to it,

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then is it bad if I want to become
a professional cellist?

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If I truly could win a Nobel Prize,

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am I depriving the world
by focusing on painting?

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If I can be the next Meryl Streep,

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is it wrong that I want to code
for a tech startup?

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If we're told that we can be
anything we want to be,

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then we make our own decisions,

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bearing the stress and the anxiety
that come with that.

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When someone else sets our path,

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we don't have to worry
about closing doors,

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but we lose a sense of autonomy.

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And taking any other path
than the one laid out for us

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feels like we're letting someone down
or doing something wrong.

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The pressure that comes with being told
that you could be great at something,

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that you have the potential
to win a Nobel Prize

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or save the polar bears
or be an astronaut,

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can actually prevent you

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from doing something
that you really want to do.

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Almost every smart, talented
or hardworking person I know

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has felt this pressure
at some point in their lives.

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Even if they don't know exactly
what they want to be when they grow up,

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being told that they could be great
at a specific thing

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makes them feel responsible
for achieving that goal.

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It's a responsibility
that is placed on them,

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often accidentally,
by parents or teachers or friends,

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and if it's internalized,
it can be destructive,

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fueling anger or resentment.

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The possible anxiety
of having too many choices

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doesn't seem so bad when it comes
with the freedom to set your own path.

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I don't have the answers

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on how to decide
what to do with your life,

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what doors to close
or what opportunities to pursue.

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But it can help to recognize
that you have choices,

00:13:47.981 --> 00:13:49.871
no one sets your path but you.

00:13:49.871 --> 00:13:53.095
But in case the anxiety
does start to get paralyzing,

00:13:53.095 --> 00:13:55.010
I want to leave you with this:

00:13:55.200 --> 00:13:58.050
No matter what you choose
to do with your life -

00:13:58.050 --> 00:14:02.210
and you can do anything,
including nothing at all -

00:14:02.210 --> 00:14:04.728
you are still important,

00:14:04.728 --> 00:14:06.297
you are still worthy of love,

00:14:06.297 --> 00:14:09.484
and there will still be
people who love you.

00:14:10.424 --> 00:14:14.102
Being smart or talented is a privilege.

00:14:14.102 --> 00:14:17.711
It allows you to do something,
possibly multiple things,

00:14:17.711 --> 00:14:21.661
better, faster or easier
than the average person.

00:14:22.141 --> 00:14:26.563
But being smart or talented
is not a responsibility.

00:14:26.873 --> 00:14:29.335
It's not your job to save anyone;

00:14:29.335 --> 00:14:31.688
it's not your duty to fix anything;

00:14:31.688 --> 00:14:34.813
it's not your responsibility to create.

00:14:35.463 --> 00:14:40.398
You, just like everybody else
in this world, have only one job:

00:14:41.078 --> 00:14:42.433
love.

00:14:43.063 --> 00:14:44.651
Love yourself,

00:14:44.651 --> 00:14:47.780
do your very, very best to love others,

00:14:48.050 --> 00:14:51.008
and whatever it is
you decide to do with your life,

00:14:51.248 --> 00:14:53.146
do it for love.

00:14:53.876 --> 00:14:56.361
If you follow that, you can't go wrong.

00:14:56.361 --> 00:14:57.435
Thank you.

00:14:57.435 --> 00:14:59.652
(Applause)