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I'm really excited to be here;

2
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I'm excited to talk with you all,

3
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share some of what I know, 
some of what I've learned.

4
00:00:25,991 --> 00:00:27,942
But I'm also kind of confused.

5
00:00:27,942 --> 00:00:32,892
Because in my mind, TED Talks,
TEDx Talks, TEDxYouth Talks,

6
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they're given by people
with a path and a vision.

7
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And I still have no idea 
what I want to be when I grow up.

8
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I've been putting off having to choose.

9
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When I was very small,
I was told that I was smart.

10
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And not just any kind of smart:

11
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I was told that I was scientifically
and mathematically inclined,

12
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as opposed to someone like my brother

13
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who was deemed talented
in things like language and art.

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I was told, "Girls can too,"

15
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which was a phrase meant to inspire me

16
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to keep studying mathematics
and go into the hard sciences.

17
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I was told about my dad's work
for the Air Force,

18
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about how he always wished
he had completed his pilot's license,

19
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and how when he was a kid,
he used to build rockets.

20
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I was told bedtime stories
of Shannon Lucid and Sally Ride,

21
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and if I wanted to stay up late
to watch a shuttle launch,

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my parents let me.

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It's no surprise that I wanted
to be an astronaut.

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At five,

25
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I could have told you I wanted to earn
my bachelor's degree from Annapolis,

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become a jet jockey,

27
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and then apply to NASA.

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Everyone was so proud
and so impressed at this little kid

29
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with this well-thought-out
and well-researched life.

30
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But when I was 14,
I stopped really caring about school.

31
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Our country was two years into a new war,


32
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and as I started to learn
more about the military,

33
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I realized I didn't want to be
a part of that system.

34
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Despite being one of the most common paths
to becoming an astronaut,

35
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I started to find
I didn't want to go Annapolis,

36
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I didn't want to be a jet jockey,

37
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I didn't want to become an astronaut.

38
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This thing,

39
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this goal that I had been pointed at
by parents and teachers and friends,

40
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this piece of my identity,

41
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was suddenly gone.

42
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I had lost my destiny.

43
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I felt like such a disappointment,

44
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like whatever I did
for the rest of my life,

45
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no matter how well I did it,

46
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it would always be in the shadow
of this monumental failure,

47
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a failure to even get started.

48
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Luckily, the grownups
weren't completely wrong.

49
00:02:43,873 --> 00:02:47,799
I still depend on mankind's number one
evolutionary advantage:

50
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our brains.

51
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We don't have the biggest brains
in the animal kingdom,

52
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not by a long shot.

53
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But this is the prefrontal cortex,

54
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and we've evolved to have really big ones
when compared to the rest of our brains.

55
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The prefrontal cortex is responsible

56
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for everything that we think
that make us different from other animals.

57
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It's responsible for executive function.

58
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It's responsible
for our ability to empathize,

59
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our ability to think ahead and plan,

60
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predict what's going to happen
in the future.

61
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It's responsible for social control.

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Our really big prefrontal cortexes
makes us problem-solving machines.

63
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We're decisions makers.

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When presented with a list of options,

65
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we're not only able to quickly
and efficiently make a choice,

66
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but we're able to generate new options

67
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from outside of
the originally defined set.

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Think of all of the choices
that you're making right now,

69
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just sitting in this theater.

70
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You're choosing not to get up
and start dancing.

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You're choosing to listen.

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You're choosing not to wet your pants,

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(Laughter)

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I hope.

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(Laughter)

76
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Most of these choices

77
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your brain makes without you having
to devote any conscious awareness to them.

78
00:04:01,827 --> 00:04:04,912
But some choices, like what to be
when you will grow up,

79
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are a much, much bigger deal.

80
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Since closing the door
on being an astronaut,

81
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my education background
has been in economics, political science,

82
00:04:12,893 --> 00:04:16,876
mathematics, neuroeconomics
and neurobiology.

83
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Which basically means

84
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when I was presented
with a list of majors in college,

85
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I just refused to make a decision

86
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and looked for the box
marked "All of the above."

87
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(Laughter)

88
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But I'm going to let you in
on a little secret.

89
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It turns out that economics,
neuroscience and political science

90
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all actually study the exact same thing,

91
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which is, Why do people make
the decisions that they make,

92
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sometimes even working
against their own best interest?

93
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We see people working minimum-wage jobs
voting against minimum-wage hikes.

94
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We see parents refusing to vaccinate
their otherwise healthy kids

95
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despite the fact that
that is evolutionary disadvantageous

96
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at both the individual
and societal levels.

97
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We see teenagers who've been bombarded
with anti-smoking information

98
00:05:05,004 --> 00:05:06,437
their whole lives,

99
00:05:06,437 --> 00:05:09,707
who know the risks
associated with smoking,

100
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start anyway.

101
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And we as a society are so confused
about why people would do these things

102
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that we use science and social science

103
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and TED Talks and crystal balls
and mathematics

104
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to figure out why.

105
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Why would people do these things?

106
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And everybody does this.

107
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No one is immune from these breaks
in what economists call "rationality."

108
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We all have things that can show us
predictably biased choices.

109
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I'm going to give you an example.

110
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Let's play a game.

111
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I'm going to flip a coin -
it's a fair coin.

112
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If the first flip comes up heads,
you get two dollars.

113
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I flip it again;

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if it comes up heads a second time,
you get four dollars.

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A third time, eight dollars.

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Fourth, 16, until the coin comes up tails.

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And then I pay you your money.

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So if the coin comes up heads five times
in a row before the first tails,

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you get 32 dollars.

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If it come up 20 times in a row
before your first tails,

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you get over a million dollars.

122
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So think to yourself,

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how much would you be willing to pay
to play this game?

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If you're like most people,

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you'd be willing to pay
less than 25 dollars.

126
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But if you played this game forever,

127
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you would be expected to make
an infinite amount of money,

128
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no matter how much you paid per game.

129
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This game has an infinite expected value,

130
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and yet everybody has a point,
a number usually really low,

131
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that they'd no longer
be willing to pay to play.

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Here's another one.

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It's like getting your eyes
checked at the eye doctor:

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I'm going to present A or B, and you'll
tell me which one you think is better.

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So A, I give you a million dollars,

136
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just like that.

137
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Cold million, you walk away,
go home, it's wonderful.

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Or B,

139
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you can take a gamble.

140
00:07:03,250 --> 00:07:06,462
There's an 89% chance
of winning a million dollars,

141
00:07:06,462 --> 00:07:11,930
a 1% chance of winning nothing -
you walk home empty-handed -

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and a 10% chance
at winning five million dollars.

143
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Which would you choose?

144
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If you're like most people,
you'd actually choose A -

145
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no risk, no gamble,

146
00:07:22,769 --> 00:07:25,111
you just walk away with the cold million.

147
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Here's the next one: choice C.

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There's a 89% chance
of getting zero dollars

149
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and an 11% chance of getting a million,

150
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or D, there's a 90% chance
of getting zero dollars

151
00:07:40,306 --> 00:07:43,008
and a 10% chance of getting five million.

152
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This time, if you're like most people,

153
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you'd pick D and hope
for the five million.

154
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But if we do some quick math,

155
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we actually find that
the first two choices are equivalent.

156
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and that when it's framed one way,

157
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you pick A,

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and when it's framed another way,

159
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you pick D.

160
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Just based on how the information
is presented to you,

161
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I can get you to pick door number one
or door number two.

162
00:08:09,823 --> 00:08:12,633
And the weird thing is
that making any other decision

163
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probably feels really wrong.

164
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It turns out that intuition
and economic rationality

165
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don't always agree.

166
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So these are just two economic examples
of biases in decision making.

167
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It turns out that
there's actually a lot of factors

168
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that can predictably bias
what we choose.

169
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The first was an example

170
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of inappropriately weighting
small probabilities.

171
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There's less than a 3% chance

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that you'll win at least $32
in the quarter-flipping game,

173
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and as a result, we have a hard time
even taking into account

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the chance of making a million.

175
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This same bias is seen in people
who fail to vaccinate their kids.

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If your unvaccinated child
only has a 5% chance of getting sick,

177
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it's really hard to take into account

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the possible consequences
of them not being vaccinated,

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00:09:01,762 --> 00:09:04,357
which could be as high
as the child's life.

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The second example is of a framing effect.

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This affects everything
from what cereal we buy at the store

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00:09:11,183 --> 00:09:14,415
to how we report judgments
of our own emotions.

183
00:09:14,415 --> 00:09:17,206
For example, you're much more likely
to report being happy

184
00:09:17,206 --> 00:09:19,807
if I ask, "Are you happy?"

185
00:09:19,807 --> 00:09:23,169
than if I ask, "Are you unhappy?"

186
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Other biases include
aversion to uncertainty

187
00:09:26,133 --> 00:09:28,397
and making choices that try to avoid it.

188
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We can miss out on
some really great opportunities

189
00:09:30,731 --> 00:09:33,231
by trying to avoid unknown unknowns.

190
00:09:33,411 --> 00:09:37,174
We're also biased by the number
of options that are presented to us.

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00:09:37,174 --> 00:09:41,459
Having a wide range of options,
it turns out, isn't always better.

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00:09:41,459 --> 00:09:43,445
It can make deciding harder

193
00:09:43,445 --> 00:09:47,352
and actually affect both our levels
of happiness and anxiety.

194
00:09:48,057 --> 00:09:50,161
So how do these biases
affect big decisions

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00:09:50,161 --> 00:09:52,416
like what to be when you grow up?

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We're going to do
some quick audience participation.

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00:09:55,237 --> 00:09:57,658
Raise your hand if you've ever been told

198
00:09:57,658 --> 00:10:01,446
that you can be anything
you want to be when you grow up.

199
00:10:03,176 --> 00:10:05,728
Yeah? You can put your hands down.

200
00:10:06,038 --> 00:10:09,791
Being told that you can be anything 
you want feels pretty good.

201
00:10:09,791 --> 00:10:11,510
It feels like you can live your life

202
00:10:11,510 --> 00:10:14,583
according to your own rules,
your owns wants, your own goals.

203
00:10:14,583 --> 00:10:16,993
Like you can become
the person you want to be:

204
00:10:16,993 --> 00:10:19,699
proud, successful, happy.

205
00:10:20,269 --> 00:10:22,486
It give you a feeling
of agency over your life,

206
00:10:22,486 --> 00:10:24,132
a feeling of freedom.

207
00:10:24,762 --> 00:10:26,503
Life is an open field,

208
00:10:26,503 --> 00:10:29,694
and you can go anywhere you want to go.

209
00:10:30,414 --> 00:10:33,114
But humans don't have infinite time.

210
00:10:33,544 --> 00:10:36,075
While you may be able
to do anything you want,

211
00:10:36,075 --> 00:10:39,273
you probably won't be able
to do everything you want.

212
00:10:39,643 --> 00:10:42,137
Having to choose between so many options

213
00:10:42,137 --> 00:10:45,921
can be anxiety inducing
and detrimental to our happiness.

214
00:10:46,471 --> 00:10:49,553
We as humans hate eliminating options,

215
00:10:49,553 --> 00:10:52,995
even if we know that
that's not a path we want to choose.

216
00:10:53,215 --> 00:10:55,291
We feel like we're losing out on something

217
00:10:55,291 --> 00:10:58,551
simply by giving up
the possibility of something.

218
00:10:59,861 --> 00:11:02,333
I want you to raise you hand
if you're even been told

219
00:11:02,333 --> 00:11:05,404
anything similar to one of the statements
that I'm about to say.

220
00:11:05,404 --> 00:11:07,834
Just put your hand up and leave it, okay?

221
00:11:08,418 --> 00:11:13,538
If you put your mind to it,
you could be really great at blank.

222
00:11:14,838 --> 00:11:16,609
Whatever that is for you.

223
00:11:17,009 --> 00:11:19,160
If you dedicate your life to it,

224
00:11:19,160 --> 00:11:20,922
you could help cure cancer

225
00:11:20,922 --> 00:11:24,796
or do some other difficult
and yet very specific feat.

226
00:11:25,586 --> 00:11:26,861
If you really try,

227
00:11:26,861 --> 00:11:32,006
you could win a Nobel Prize
or an Olympic gold medal or an Oscar.

228
00:11:33,142 --> 00:11:34,198
How about this one?

229
00:11:34,198 --> 00:11:36,675
You'd make a really great astronaut.

230
00:11:36,675 --> 00:11:38,391
(Laughter)

231
00:11:38,391 --> 00:11:40,022
You can put your hands down.

232
00:11:40,302 --> 00:11:43,703
These statements are very different
from the first statement.

233
00:11:43,703 --> 00:11:46,523
Well, both are meant
to motivate and inspire.

234
00:11:46,733 --> 00:11:50,003
The first instills a sense
of freedom and agency.

235
00:11:50,003 --> 00:11:54,044
The second implies a responsibility
to the path that's been laid out.

236
00:11:54,914 --> 00:11:56,521
If this person is right,

237
00:11:56,521 --> 00:12:00,518
and I could help cure cancer
if I just devote my entire life to it,

238
00:12:01,078 --> 00:12:04,762
then is it bad if I want to become
a professional cellist?

239
00:12:05,232 --> 00:12:07,958
If I truly could win a Nobel Prize,

240
00:12:07,958 --> 00:12:11,645
am I depriving the world
by focusing on painting?

241
00:12:12,809 --> 00:12:14,735
If I can be the next Meryl Streep,

242
00:12:14,735 --> 00:12:18,055
is it wrong that I want to code
for a tech startup?

243
00:12:19,075 --> 00:12:22,268
If we're told that we can be
anything we want to be,

244
00:12:22,268 --> 00:12:23,772
then we make our own decisions,

245
00:12:23,772 --> 00:12:26,620
bearing the stress and the anxiety
that come with that.

246
00:12:27,270 --> 00:12:29,356
When someone else sets our path,

247
00:12:29,356 --> 00:12:31,984
we don't have to worry
about closing doors,

248
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but we lose a sense of autonomy.

249
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And taking any other path
than the one laid out for us

250
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feels like we're letting someone down
or doing something wrong.

251
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The pressure that comes with being told
that you could be great at something,

252
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that you have the potential
to win a Nobel Prize

253
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or save the polar bears
or be an astronaut,

254
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can actually prevent you

255
00:12:52,738 --> 00:12:55,841
from doing something
that you really want to do.

256
00:12:56,691 --> 00:13:00,980
Almost every smart, talented
or hardworking person I know

257
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has felt this pressure
at some point in their lives.

258
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Even if they don't know exactly
what they want to be when they grow up,

259
00:13:07,567 --> 00:13:10,385
being told that they could be great
at a specific thing

260
00:13:10,385 --> 00:13:13,606
makes them feel responsible
for achieving that goal.

261
00:13:14,066 --> 00:13:16,694
It's a responsibility
that is placed on them,

262
00:13:16,694 --> 00:13:21,574
often accidentally,
by parents or teachers or friends,

263
00:13:21,574 --> 00:13:24,629
and if it's internalized,
it can be destructive,

264
00:13:24,629 --> 00:13:27,325
fueling anger or resentment.

265
00:13:28,105 --> 00:13:30,994
The possible anxiety
of having too many choices

266
00:13:30,994 --> 00:13:35,317
doesn't seem so bad when it comes
with the freedom to set your own path.

267
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I don't have the answers

268
00:13:37,866 --> 00:13:40,886
on how to decide
what to do with your life,

269
00:13:40,886 --> 00:13:44,505
what doors to close
or what opportunities to pursue.

270
00:13:44,905 --> 00:13:47,981
But it can help to recognize
that you have choices,

271
00:13:47,981 --> 00:13:49,871
no one sets your path but you.

272
00:13:49,871 --> 00:13:53,095
But in case the anxiety
does start to get paralyzing,

273
00:13:53,095 --> 00:13:55,010
I want to leave you with this:

274
00:13:55,200 --> 00:13:58,050
No matter what you choose
to do with your life -

275
00:13:58,050 --> 00:14:02,210
and you can do anything,
including nothing at all -

276
00:14:02,210 --> 00:14:04,728
you are still important,

277
00:14:04,728 --> 00:14:06,297
you are still worthy of love,

278
00:14:06,297 --> 00:14:09,484
and there will still be
people who love you.

279
00:14:10,424 --> 00:14:14,102
Being smart or talented is a privilege.

280
00:14:14,102 --> 00:14:17,711
It allows you to do something,
possibly multiple things,

281
00:14:17,711 --> 00:14:21,661
better, faster or easier
than the average person.

282
00:14:22,141 --> 00:14:26,563
But being smart or talented
is not a responsibility.

283
00:14:26,873 --> 00:14:29,335
It's not your job to save anyone;

284
00:14:29,335 --> 00:14:31,688
it's not your duty to fix anything;

285
00:14:31,688 --> 00:14:34,813
it's not your responsibility to create.

286
00:14:35,463 --> 00:14:40,398
You, just like everybody else
in this world, have only one job:

287
00:14:41,078 --> 00:14:42,433
love.

288
00:14:43,063 --> 00:14:44,651
Love yourself,

289
00:14:44,651 --> 00:14:47,780
do your very, very best to love others,

290
00:14:48,050 --> 00:14:51,008
and whatever it is
you decide to do with your life,

291
00:14:51,248 --> 00:14:53,146
do it for love.

292
00:14:53,876 --> 00:14:56,361
If you follow that, you can't go wrong.

293
00:14:56,361 --> 00:14:57,435
Thank you.

294
00:14:57,435 --> 00:14:59,652
(Applause)