1 00:00:09,510 --> 00:00:15,733 Last Chance Films 2 00:00:17,233 --> 00:00:20,515 In association with 3 00:00:21,905 --> 00:00:26,466 Event Horizon Productions 4 00:00:26,816 --> 00:00:29,327 Presents 5 00:00:29,707 --> 00:00:36,640 ARCTIC DEATH SPIRAL AND THE METHANE TIME BOMB 6 00:00:42,140 --> 00:00:47,233 Emergency Broadcast System 7 00:00:49,054 --> 00:00:51,159 We interrupt our programming. 8 00:00:51,319 --> 00:00:54,800 THIS IS A NATIONAL EMERGENCY. Important details will follow. 9 00:00:54,969 --> 00:00:58,399 The emergency alert "system" has been activated. 10 00:01:08,100 --> 00:01:10,408 Ladies and gentleman. 11 00:01:10,528 --> 00:01:15,520 The very word secrecy is repugnant, in a free and open society. 12 00:01:15,700 --> 00:01:17,982 We decided long ago, 13 00:01:18,132 --> 00:01:23,474 that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted concealment of pertinent facts 14 00:01:23,614 --> 00:01:28,278 far outweigh the dangers which are cited to justify it. 15 00:01:28,418 --> 00:01:30,552 But I am asking your help, 16 00:01:30,682 --> 00:01:35,276 in the tremendous task of informing and alerting the American people. 17 00:01:35,506 --> 00:01:39,990 For I have complete confidence, in the response and dedication of our citizens. 18 00:01:40,130 --> 00:01:42,618 Whenever they are fully informed. 19 00:01:42,928 --> 00:01:48,339 Many rivers and the air in many cities, remain badly polluted. 20 00:01:48,859 --> 00:01:53,980 And our citizens, suffer, from breathing that air. 21 00:01:54,440 --> 00:01:59,359 We lived with conditions like these for many many years. 22 00:02:00,028 --> 00:02:04,108 But much that we once accepted as inevitable, 23 00:02:04,288 --> 00:02:08,668 we now find absolutely intolerable. 24 00:02:08,907 --> 00:02:11,245 Each of us all across this great land 25 00:02:11,355 --> 00:02:15,542 has a stake in maintaining and improving environmental quality, 26 00:02:15,712 --> 00:02:19,570 clean air and clean waters, the wise use of our lands, 27 00:02:19,710 --> 00:02:24,740 the protection of wildlife and natural beauty, parks for all to enjoy. 28 00:02:24,930 --> 00:02:28,339 These are part of the birthright of every American. 29 00:02:28,499 --> 00:02:33,480 To guarantee that birthright, we must act, and act decisively. 30 00:02:33,669 --> 00:02:36,419 It is literally now, or never. 31 00:02:36,869 --> 00:02:41,039 Our program will emphasize conservation. 32 00:02:41,229 --> 00:02:45,159 The amount of energy being wasted, which could be saved, 33 00:02:45,320 --> 00:02:51,140 is greater than the total energy that we are importing from foreign countries. 34 00:02:51,310 --> 00:02:54,620 We will also stress development of our rich coal reserves. 35 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:57,379 In an environmentally sound way. 36 00:02:57,709 --> 00:03:03,009 Now it seems to me that if, we would concentrate on resolving the problems, 37 00:03:03,199 --> 00:03:06,552 uh... of the automobile, the combustion engine, 38 00:03:06,732 --> 00:03:09,965 thee, the pollution factor and we've gone a long way in that, 39 00:03:10,345 --> 00:03:14,189 I think of myself as an environmentalist. I uh... 40 00:03:14,189 --> 00:03:18,769 I don't wanna see all this beauty around us wiped out and destroyed. 41 00:03:18,930 --> 00:03:23,750 We all know that human activities are changing the atmosphere 42 00:03:23,930 --> 00:03:28,580 in unexpected, and in unprecedented ways. 43 00:03:28,919 --> 00:03:34,899 I recommend that we adopt a BTU tax on the heat content of energy, 44 00:03:35,070 --> 00:03:38,379 as the best way to provide us with revenue to lower the deficit, 45 00:03:38,539 --> 00:03:42,978 because it also combats pollution, promotes energy efficiency, 46 00:03:43,118 --> 00:03:46,095 promotes the independence economically of this country, 47 00:03:46,215 --> 00:03:48,392 as well as helping to reduce the debt. 48 00:03:48,502 --> 00:03:53,030 And it is environmentally responsible. It will help us in the future, 49 00:03:53,160 --> 00:03:55,750 as well as in the present with the deficit. 50 00:03:55,900 --> 00:03:59,030 The United States is committed to strengthening our energy security 51 00:03:59,150 --> 00:04:01,370 and confronting global climate change. 52 00:04:01,500 --> 00:04:05,150 And the best way to meet these goals is for America to continue leading the way 53 00:04:05,280 --> 00:04:09,700 toward the development of cleaner, and more energy efficient technology. 54 00:04:09,850 --> 00:04:12,119 We're gonna leave this planet... 55 00:04:12,479 --> 00:04:16,770 At least as good as the, planet we inherited, from our parents 56 00:04:16,950 --> 00:04:20,880 but, we've got... we've got a bigger problem with climate change. 57 00:04:21,020 --> 00:04:24,280 We sent, we sent a billion dollars to foreign nations, 58 00:04:24,450 --> 00:04:27,629 many of them hostile, and in the... because of our addiction to oil, 59 00:04:27,759 --> 00:04:30,689 and in the bargain we're melting the polar ice caps. 60 00:04:32,059 --> 00:04:34,829 Changing the weather patterns all around the globe... 61 00:04:35,010 --> 00:04:39,870 The science is clear that man-made emissions of air pollution and global warming gases 62 00:04:40,010 --> 00:04:42,860 are changing our atmosphere. - Anthropogenic global warming is still an issue 63 00:04:42,990 --> 00:04:45,590 that the scientists are still debating and you know it and I know it. 64 00:04:45,649 --> 00:04:48,700 The debate on the causes of Climate Change are far from settled. 65 00:04:48,830 --> 00:04:51,540 Well the climate's always changing. That's not the fundamental question. 66 00:04:51,659 --> 00:04:55,619 The fundamental question is whether man-made activity, is the, is what's contributing most... 67 00:04:55,739 --> 00:05:00,279 I think CO2 Is a problem, and therefore I don't think it needs to be regulated. 68 00:05:00,409 --> 00:05:03,060 We all breathe CO2, climate changes, 69 00:05:03,240 --> 00:05:08,910 but there's no evidence at all that it's man-made CO2 that causes the climate to change. 70 00:05:09,079 --> 00:05:14,299 The idea of human induced global climate change is... 71 00:05:14,510 --> 00:05:17,960 one of the greatest hoaxes perpetrated 72 00:05:18,089 --> 00:05:20,979 out of the scientific community. It is a hoax. 73 00:05:21,159 --> 00:05:25,139 I'm only concerned about the, incredible frenzy and hype 74 00:05:25,279 --> 00:05:27,289 for something that's a total myth. 75 00:05:27,430 --> 00:05:32,000 It's AMAZING to me how aaah, upset so many people are... 76 00:05:32,180 --> 00:05:37,300 The existence of all these billions of people on earth, have all influenced the climate of earth. 77 00:05:37,479 --> 00:05:42,870 but NONE of it, is of significance, uhh... and thank goodness, 78 00:05:43,040 --> 00:05:45,148 things are doing just fine. 79 00:05:45,358 --> 00:05:50,039 The question is the degree to which man influences the climate and whether actually we can... 80 00:05:50,249 --> 00:05:53,540 ...this is anything we should worry about or whether we should be... 81 00:05:53,700 --> 00:05:56,990 bombing the global economy into the dark ages to try and stop it. 82 00:05:57,160 --> 00:06:00,283 Ya know, the greatest hoax I think has been around, 83 00:06:00,453 --> 00:06:03,136 in many many years, if not hundreds of years 84 00:06:03,266 --> 00:06:06,530 has been this hoax on the environment and global warming. 85 00:06:06,669 --> 00:06:08,709 You notice they don't call it global warming anymore. 86 00:06:08,709 --> 00:06:10,000 No no no. It's because it's getting cooler! 87 00:06:10,000 --> 00:06:10,790 It's "Weather Control". 88 00:06:10,790 --> 00:06:14,540 Yeah! It's getting cooler, you can't call it global warming anymore. 89 00:06:14,540 --> 00:06:17,650 So what we need, what the world needs is more fossil fuels. 90 00:06:17,649 --> 00:06:22,579 The evidence we have, is not just that fossil fuels aren't ruining our planet. 91 00:06:22,579 --> 00:06:23,918 They're making it much better... 92 00:06:23,918 --> 00:06:26,329 Climate related deaths are going down. 93 00:06:26,329 --> 00:06:29,519 And, so, what we need is many many more fossil fuels. 94 00:06:29,589 --> 00:06:32,579 So that people can eat. And they can have food. 95 00:06:32,579 --> 00:06:35,979 Through the years of high school, "Aqua Net" hair spray use have done 96 00:06:35,979 --> 00:06:39,520 more damage to the ozone than any global warming scam has. 97 00:06:39,520 --> 00:06:41,020 Aqua. I remember Aqua Net. 98 00:06:41,020 --> 00:06:42,489 Aqua Net. 99 00:06:42,489 --> 00:06:43,418 (Laughter) Every every, every. 100 00:06:43,433 --> 00:06:45,010 I remember Brill creme. 101 00:06:45,010 --> 00:06:47,040 But I don't think that had anything to do with the climate change. 102 00:06:47,029 --> 00:06:49,115 "A little dab'll do ya" Remember that? That's it! 103 00:06:49,115 --> 00:06:52,800 There´s more! The CO2 can also go... 104 00:06:52,800 --> 00:06:56,710 (Crazy Gestures & Comic Sounds) 105 00:06:56,709 --> 00:07:00,899 At times when CO2 was rich in the atmosphere, 106 00:07:00,899 --> 00:07:06,859 there was... greater growth of farms, vineyards and so forth. 107 00:07:06,860 --> 00:07:10,139 Uh, I guess in England, there was a time when 108 00:07:10,139 --> 00:07:14,449 growth of vineyards was so great there was this wine all over the place and... 109 00:07:15,560 --> 00:07:19,839 But I'm still open to the possibility. So if there's anyone from Exxon-Mobile here... 110 00:07:19,839 --> 00:07:25,129 I've got a bank account and routing number available for you. (Laughter) 111 00:07:25,240 --> 00:07:27,519 One could argue from an economic point-of-view... 112 00:07:27,519 --> 00:07:32,300 We should be burning fossil-fuels like "Gangbusters" to generate as much wealth as we can. 113 00:07:32,300 --> 00:07:37,899 Divert some of that into alternative energy research and we might get to those alternative energies 114 00:07:37,899 --> 00:07:40,549 faster, than if we... starve poor people 115 00:07:40,549 --> 00:07:45,709 and ruin the world's economies, and reduce CO2 emissions. 116 00:07:45,709 --> 00:07:47,009 (Applause) 117 00:07:47,009 --> 00:07:50,116 Now, as we agreed, you owe me two beers. 118 00:07:50,116 --> 00:07:51,633 (Laughter) 119 00:07:51,633 --> 00:07:59,180 "Scientific American" editorialized on the escalating ugliness of climate denier tactics and rhetoric. 120 00:07:59,180 --> 00:08:03,490 The editors wondered if we are a people increasingly estranged from critical thinking, 121 00:08:03,490 --> 00:08:07,989 divorced from logic, alienated from objective truth. 122 00:11:59,488 --> 00:12:02,048 Now to the big headline from "Climate Scientists" tonight. 123 00:12:02,148 --> 00:12:05,116 The UN International Panel on Climate Change 124 00:12:05,216 --> 00:12:09,857 says we are hurdling toward the day when Climate Change could be irreversible, 125 00:12:09,967 --> 00:12:12,778 with catastrophic consequences they say. 126 00:12:12,888 --> 00:12:16,419 It's only going to get worse if we don't take drastic measures. 127 00:12:16,559 --> 00:12:21,020 We've seen an increasing number of regions over the decades, starting to lose ice, 128 00:12:21,140 --> 00:12:23,799 but this is the first time we've seen it ALMOST globally. 129 00:12:23,900 --> 00:12:26,109 Most ominously, the report says 130 00:12:26,249 --> 00:12:29,689 we are in REAL danger of exceeding our carbon limit of one-trillion tons. 131 00:12:29,799 --> 00:12:33,840 Scientists say that would warm the earth more than three and a half degrees Fahrenheit, 132 00:12:33,940 --> 00:12:37,119 making the impacts of climate change MUCH more dangerous... 133 00:12:37,249 --> 00:12:40,989 And that's the worry. Many of the worlds cities are in the crosshairs. 134 00:12:41,090 --> 00:12:43,410 Most of the people around the world live in coastal areas, 135 00:12:43,530 --> 00:12:46,509 it's where most of your major cities are because that's where ports are. 136 00:12:46,589 --> 00:12:48,199 And they are at sea level. 137 00:12:48,269 --> 00:12:52,720 So even small changes in sea level rise can displace millions of people. 138 00:12:52,800 --> 00:12:58,310 Scientists fly over a giant chunk of Antarctic ice as it cracks and collapses. 139 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:02,660 The chunk is enormous. About seven times the size of Manhattan 140 00:13:02,780 --> 00:13:04,980 160 Square Miles. 141 00:13:05,080 --> 00:13:07,099 It was part of the Wilkins Ice shelf. 142 00:13:07,199 --> 00:13:12,532 The biggest on Antarctica yet, scientists say to fall victim to Global Warming. 143 00:13:12,665 --> 00:13:15,309 Watching Wilkins ice shelf disappear at the moment, 144 00:13:15,389 --> 00:13:18,699 we learn a lot more about how Ice responds to climate change. 145 00:13:18,829 --> 00:13:22,459 The Ice is just a small fraction of the Antarctic ice sheet. 146 00:13:22,549 --> 00:13:25,449 But it broke off well before scientists predicted. 147 00:13:25,560 --> 00:13:30,290 A sign they said that Climate Change may be happening faster than expected. 148 00:13:30,390 --> 00:13:32,770 One expert told us last year: 149 00:13:32,909 --> 00:13:39,309 "I think what we, what we do know is that ice, uhh, uh, is probably our best sensor, 150 00:13:39,480 --> 00:13:42,480 of these large scale changes taking place. 151 00:13:42,580 --> 00:13:46,249 And in many ways I think we're in unchartered territory." 152 00:13:46,709 --> 00:13:51,619 Ice plays a vital role in cooling the Earth's temperature and regulating sea levels. 153 00:13:51,789 --> 00:13:57,228 As it´s lost, the planet gets warmer, sea levels rise and more ice is threatened. 154 00:13:57,338 --> 00:13:59,728 A vicious environmental circle. 155 00:13:59,838 --> 00:14:03,799 There are glaciologists now who are getting very worried. 156 00:14:03,929 --> 00:14:08,059 But they haven't really come out and said what they think. 157 00:14:08,219 --> 00:14:11,772 Take a good look at it, because it won't be there for long. 158 00:14:11,922 --> 00:14:14,345 It's cracking and it's breaking up. 159 00:14:14,485 --> 00:14:17,649 And it's only one of dozens of Antarctic ice shelves 160 00:14:17,769 --> 00:14:20,738 collapsing faster than anyone predicted. 161 00:14:20,848 --> 00:14:25,269 I would say the vast majority of we we're looking at back there is broken up this year. 162 00:14:25,410 --> 00:14:27,649 It was a cool summer right? Chicago, New York, 163 00:14:27,769 --> 00:14:30,300 places like that, so. How could it be Global Warming? 164 00:14:30,410 --> 00:14:32,499 This is how. Look at the context. 165 00:14:32,619 --> 00:14:35,889 These blue dots over North America represent below average temperatures 166 00:14:36,019 --> 00:14:39,709 for the Summer... June, July, August. What we call "Climate Logical Summer". 167 00:14:39,839 --> 00:14:44,340 But look at the context. They're lost in a sea of red dots across much of the rest of the globe. 168 00:14:44,469 --> 00:14:46,938 Just a couple other blue dots here and there. 169 00:14:47,059 --> 00:14:49,790 Those red dots are above-average temperatures. 170 00:14:49,910 --> 00:14:54,099 What that translates to in terms of a ranking for this summer and for August 171 00:14:54,229 --> 00:14:58,979 globally, second warmest on record. Period of record going back a little more than a century. 172 00:14:59,139 --> 00:15:02,279 June through August globally. The third warmest on record. 173 00:15:02,420 --> 00:15:06,230 The oceans which had cooled for a couple years now recovered with a vengeance. 174 00:15:06,389 --> 00:15:11,129 August the warmest on record. June through August also the warmest on record. 175 00:15:11,608 --> 00:15:16,169 Now, if the scientists are anywhere near correct, 176 00:15:16,340 --> 00:15:20,689 then this is the greatest challenge facing humanity today. 177 00:15:20,849 --> 00:15:24,449 It is the greatest challenge humanity has ever faced, 178 00:15:24,588 --> 00:15:27,399 and probably WILL ever face. 179 00:15:27,530 --> 00:15:30,550 If someone asks me, if the climate system were changing. 180 00:15:30,710 --> 00:15:33,249 I would say, look at the data. 181 00:15:35,419 --> 00:15:40,528 The Arctic is, is experiencing, uh.. I would say a crisis. 182 00:15:42,288 --> 00:15:46,939 The meltdown is changing long held beliefs about the Arctic and it's weather patterns. 183 00:15:47,089 --> 00:15:50,619 As well as being blamed for affecting conditions around the globe 184 00:15:50,779 --> 00:15:54,109 and triggering a rise in global sea levels. 185 00:15:59,330 --> 00:16:02,050 From all these collective studies of the whole Arctic region, 186 00:16:02,180 --> 00:16:06,170 you can see that it's warming much faster than the rest of the planet. 187 00:16:06,360 --> 00:16:09,209 In 2012, we had the new record set 188 00:16:09,339 --> 00:16:12,458 in terms of melting over the Greenland ice sheet. 189 00:16:14,728 --> 00:16:17,149 But here, amid this snow and ice 190 00:16:17,280 --> 00:16:20,950 It's hard to believe that the ice sheet is melting as fast as scientists say. 191 00:16:21,089 --> 00:16:22,400 But it is. 192 00:16:22,580 --> 00:16:27,470 Scientists say, we are watching the polar regions melt right before our eyes. 193 00:16:28,640 --> 00:16:31,929 So you can tell, there's a stream, here. 194 00:16:32,099 --> 00:16:36,389 And then there's a bunch of flow coming down on this right side. 195 00:16:37,809 --> 00:16:43,799 Interpreting the info that comes from satellites called "The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment". 196 00:16:43,969 --> 00:16:46,948 In science circles, it's called "GRACE". 197 00:16:47,088 --> 00:16:50,918 "GRACE" can detect the most subtle minute changes in land ice, 198 00:16:51,048 --> 00:16:53,988 down to the width of a human hair. 199 00:17:09,989 --> 00:17:13,039 The faster speeds that we're seeing uhh... 200 00:17:13,179 --> 00:17:15,968 In Greenland are not going to slow down. 201 00:17:16,108 --> 00:17:18,689 That's not the way, uh, ice sheets behave. 202 00:17:52,489 --> 00:17:56,239 Ooohohohooooo! Aaaaaah! 203 00:17:56,439 --> 00:18:00,649 Ouch! Oh my God! 204 00:18:01,549 --> 00:18:05,256 "Here comes the water... 205 00:18:05,996 --> 00:18:08,503 Uh ohoo." 206 00:18:12,413 --> 00:18:14,430 "Look at that." 207 00:18:18,900 --> 00:18:22,033 "ohoo, ohoo..." 208 00:18:29,943 --> 00:18:32,646 Woooooow! 209 00:18:38,356 --> 00:18:41,290 So how big, was this calving event that we just looked at? 210 00:18:41,440 --> 00:18:45,990 We'll resort to some illustrations again to give you a sense of scale. 211 00:18:48,880 --> 00:18:52,990 It's as if the entire lower tip of Manhattan broke off. 212 00:18:53,129 --> 00:18:56,219 Except that... the thickness, the height of it 213 00:18:56,380 --> 00:19:01,190 Is equivalent to buildings that are two and a half or three times higher than they are. 214 00:19:15,759 --> 00:19:20,829 That's a magical, miraculous horrible, scary thing 215 00:19:21,460 --> 00:19:26,180 I don't know that anybody's really seen the miracle and horror of that. 216 00:19:28,679 --> 00:19:34,039 It took a hundred years for it to retreat eight miles, from 1900 to 2000. 217 00:19:34,259 --> 00:19:37,800 From 2000 to 2010, it retreated nine miles. 218 00:19:37,950 --> 00:19:42,900 So in ten years, it retreated more than it had in the previous one-hundred. 219 00:19:47,000 --> 00:19:50,509 First of all, we're going to look at the 220 00:19:50,969 --> 00:19:56,359 runaway behavior, that is actually happening, to the Arctic system. 221 00:19:56,819 --> 00:19:59,109 Going almost exponential. 222 00:19:59,269 --> 00:20:04,390 We saw the rate of change of ice area, accelerating. 223 00:20:04,590 --> 00:20:08,350 We saw the change in ice mass, or thickness 224 00:20:08,490 --> 00:20:14,530 also accelerating and moving towards zero, over the next two or three years. 225 00:20:15,290 --> 00:20:17,270 And taken all together, 226 00:20:17,340 --> 00:20:24,329 we have the unmistakable footprint of a system in, what we call, self-amplification 227 00:20:24,439 --> 00:20:26,709 or, "Runaway Behavior". 228 00:20:26,870 --> 00:20:29,790 Uhh, you may remember that in 2007, there was a, uh, 229 00:20:29,930 --> 00:20:32,180 a big study that came out from this group called 230 00:20:32,330 --> 00:20:35,118 "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". 231 00:20:35,248 --> 00:20:42,518 And, they looked at computer models of how rapidly Arctic ice would go away. 232 00:20:42,750 --> 00:20:47,908 And, as of early 2007, this is what they were telling us. 233 00:20:48,058 --> 00:20:49,830 That, aahm... 234 00:20:49,970 --> 00:20:56,130 We would see, gradual drop in Arctic... ice minimum. 235 00:20:56,410 --> 00:21:01,770 going down to where we probably still have a fair amount of ice left in the year 2100. 236 00:21:01,920 --> 00:21:04,630 Worst case, maybe by 2070, 237 00:21:04,819 --> 00:21:10,689 we would see open water, in the Arctic, in the Summertime. 238 00:21:11,669 --> 00:21:13,979 That very same year, 239 00:21:14,989 --> 00:21:22,559 we saw, in the actual observations, a huge drop in the Arctic ice. 240 00:21:22,910 --> 00:21:26,710 And, that drop has continued so that in 2012, 241 00:21:26,870 --> 00:21:28,680 this is now where we are. 242 00:21:28,820 --> 00:21:34,309 So we're something like fifty years ahead of the worst case scenarios, 243 00:21:34,479 --> 00:21:38,819 that the scientists were giving us just five years ago with Arctic Ice. 244 00:21:39,609 --> 00:21:46,538 I'm actually in agreement with many climate change deniers, in that the IPCC is wrong. 245 00:21:46,770 --> 00:21:50,849 But I think, they're actually wrong, because they're too conservative. 246 00:21:51,009 --> 00:21:54,630 And they haven't really been telling the story of what really could happen... 247 00:21:54,779 --> 00:21:57,789 Can you summarize the effect of an ice-free Arctic on the world. 248 00:21:57,970 --> 00:22:01,669 Yes, the effect of an ice-free Arctic on the world is a very large one, 249 00:22:01,889 --> 00:22:05,049 because it goes way beyond the Arctic itself. 250 00:22:05,238 --> 00:22:07,999 Because once thee sea ice has disappeared, 251 00:22:08,140 --> 00:22:12,980 firstly, that produces a decrease in the global albedo, 252 00:22:13,140 --> 00:22:16,630 the amount of radiation reflected by the earth. 253 00:22:16,790 --> 00:22:22,030 And has a knock-on effect in the sense that the warmer air masses in the Arctic in summer, 254 00:22:22,210 --> 00:22:24,610 cause a retreat of the snowline, 255 00:22:24,749 --> 00:22:30,309 and the snow-line decrease has just as big an effect on the albedo as the sea ice decrease has. 256 00:22:30,549 --> 00:22:35,520 So as global albedo change, which affects thee temperature of thee entire planet, 257 00:22:35,670 --> 00:22:37,430 it warms it all up. 258 00:22:37,598 --> 00:22:41,029 Uh, and then, there's the fact that as the sea ice retreats 259 00:22:41,179 --> 00:22:46,759 it allows the water masses around the shelves of the Arctic to warm up. 260 00:22:46,929 --> 00:22:52,789 And that warms up the seabed and releases more Methane from the sub-sea permafrost 261 00:22:52,909 --> 00:22:55,180 which is melting away. 262 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:59,798 And, that methane itself is a very very powerful greenhouse gas. 263 00:22:59,978 --> 00:23:04,848 So we're having a methane kick, uh, coming in from the retreat of the sea ice, 264 00:23:05,018 --> 00:23:09,980 which again, is a global effect rather than simply an Arctic effect. 265 00:23:10,580 --> 00:23:13,088 When the IPCC is uh... 266 00:23:13,298 --> 00:23:15,899 It's not a whole load of people agreeing. 267 00:23:16,049 --> 00:23:19,740 It's a load of people saying, oh, it's this, it's this, it's this. 268 00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:24,530 It's just that, nearly, everybody thinks that we are warming the planet, 269 00:23:24,720 --> 00:23:27,940 they, disagree about how fast it'll happen. 270 00:23:28,120 --> 00:23:33,370 They disagree about whether negative or positive feedbacks are going to be more important. 271 00:23:33,689 --> 00:23:37,819 This is one of the more conservative scientific bodies on the planet. They work by consensus, 272 00:23:38,049 --> 00:23:40,658 and, after the scientists reach consensus... 273 00:23:40,788 --> 00:23:44,159 they then, vet they're report through the political process. 274 00:23:44,329 --> 00:23:48,279 So politicians have to sign off on the IPCC's assessment before it's released. 275 00:23:48,460 --> 00:23:51,840 And they conclude that, that we've reached "Runaway", 276 00:23:52,159 --> 00:23:54,619 in the absence of Geo-engineering. 277 00:23:55,099 --> 00:23:57,248 And, this is not in the model. 278 00:23:57,388 --> 00:24:00,058 The models don't show this happening. This IS happening. 279 00:24:00,209 --> 00:24:06,278 So what happens when we update the models, so that it does reflect that the Arctic is melting? 280 00:24:07,208 --> 00:24:09,259 So we're seeing effects. 281 00:24:09,439 --> 00:24:13,519 And, one of thee primary effects, that, uh... 282 00:24:14,499 --> 00:24:18,729 grabs most peoples attention is what's happening with the Arctic sea ice, 283 00:24:18,890 --> 00:24:24,150 the ice that's floating on the Arctic ocean, that covers usually most of the Arctic Ocean. 284 00:24:24,330 --> 00:24:32,040 Last year 2012 was the record low as lowest, Arctic summer ice that we have seen 285 00:24:32,140 --> 00:24:34,790 ever since we've been observing it. 286 00:24:34,959 --> 00:24:37,990 Whereas the rest of the globe has cooled, since 1997, 287 00:24:38,150 --> 00:24:44,329 temperature in the Arctic has started to increase and increase, increasingly rapidly. 288 00:24:44,449 --> 00:24:47,538 The hotter it gets, the faster it gets hotter. 289 00:24:47,708 --> 00:24:53,830 2007 alone, in one year, it melted more in the previous year 290 00:24:53,970 --> 00:24:57,990 by an area equal to three times the size of California. 291 00:24:58,390 --> 00:25:02,420 And it will be all gone, in five or ten years. 292 00:25:02,630 --> 00:25:08,250 It's pretty clear from the death spiral, that's the way in which the volumes of ice 293 00:25:08,399 --> 00:25:12,529 in the summer are zeroing in towards uh, towards zero, 294 00:25:12,699 --> 00:25:17,089 that the ice can't last more than a couple more years. 295 00:25:19,510 --> 00:25:25,640 There's no way... that ice mass, of the end of September, 296 00:25:25,920 --> 00:25:31,520 can continue going round this circle, for the next five decades. 297 00:25:32,109 --> 00:25:36,269 It's moving very rapidly into the zero point in the center. 298 00:25:36,869 --> 00:25:40,620 It's been decreasing for several decades. 299 00:25:40,790 --> 00:25:43,839 In fact, way back into the nineteen-sixties and seventies, 300 00:25:44,019 --> 00:25:49,680 we have a trend pattern of decreasing area of sea ice, particularly at it's minimum. 301 00:25:49,850 --> 00:25:55,009 and the minimum sea ice occurs in September at the end of the summer warming. 302 00:25:55,458 --> 00:25:59,940 But, do have a look at the last few years, from 2007 onwards. 303 00:26:00,120 --> 00:26:05,019 The data points have been pulling way down below the straight line. 304 00:26:05,769 --> 00:26:11,259 It becomes more and more obvious that straight line representations are no longer 305 00:26:11,449 --> 00:26:17,140 the appropriate statistical tool for demonstrating what is going on in the Arctic. 306 00:26:17,360 --> 00:26:24,396 Then we see it looks like the end of the Arctic sea ice area 307 00:26:24,866 --> 00:26:28,362 in September, by about 2015. 308 00:26:28,532 --> 00:26:33,080 So we're seeing a temperature rise, this is the NASA temperature graph, 309 00:26:33,219 --> 00:26:38,089 going back to 1880 when we feel we have good global coverage with instruments. 310 00:26:38,229 --> 00:26:40,710 We can take it back much further. 311 00:26:40,880 --> 00:26:45,049 In fact, a very significant paper came out, just this past Spring, 312 00:26:45,239 --> 00:26:51,050 which looked at a number of different... temperature Proxies, as we call them, 313 00:26:51,210 --> 00:26:57,119 like tree rings and corals and stalactites in caves and things like that. 314 00:26:57,279 --> 00:27:00,619 And we pushed back the temperature record eleven-thousand years... 315 00:27:00,788 --> 00:27:02,749 And what you've got is this, uhn... 316 00:27:02,880 --> 00:27:05,650 you've got us coming out of the ice age, back here, 317 00:27:05,790 --> 00:27:11,260 and then we've got a slow, slow, slow gradual, gradual decline, until the last century. 318 00:27:11,509 --> 00:27:13,959 And then, this is us. Here. 319 00:27:14,300 --> 00:27:19,179 So, we're... we're... we're pretty clear that, that, uhh... 320 00:27:19,669 --> 00:27:22,619 something's changed in the last two-hundred years 321 00:27:22,769 --> 00:27:27,288 and the only thing that we've been able to track down that really answers it is the... uhn 322 00:27:28,728 --> 00:27:32,089 greenhouse gases that human beings have been putting out. 323 00:27:32,810 --> 00:27:39,620 What's going on in the Arctic area at the moment is, probably, the fastest moving response, 324 00:27:39,850 --> 00:27:44,340 to Global Warming and Climate Change anywhere on the planet. 325 00:27:46,830 --> 00:27:52,250 In 1859, the English physicist John Tyndall, using equipment of his own design, 326 00:27:52,480 --> 00:27:58,000 showed that certain gases in the atmosphere blocked and absorbed long wave or heat radiation. 327 00:27:58,000 --> 00:28:02,379 Four decades later, Svante Arrhenius, with thousands of manual calculations, 328 00:28:02,379 --> 00:28:10,110 made an estimate of the global warming power of CO2, that was very close to today's best models. 329 00:28:10,109 --> 00:28:14,270 In the 1950's, american Charles Keeling began to measure accurately 330 00:28:14,308 --> 00:28:17,558 the steady increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. 331 00:28:17,558 --> 00:28:23,190 Spectrographic analysis soon showed that the new carbon was, without a doubt, man-made. 332 00:28:23,190 --> 00:28:24,929 So it's a rare gas. 333 00:28:24,929 --> 00:28:27,890 The atmosphere is almost all, Nitrogen and Oxygen. 334 00:28:27,890 --> 00:28:32,059 But you see here that, out of a million molecules of air in 1958, 335 00:28:32,058 --> 00:28:36,940 about 314 of them would be carbon dioxide molecules. 336 00:28:36,940 --> 00:28:42,570 And you see the graph there at the lower left, tracing the first few years. 337 00:28:42,569 --> 00:28:45,879 So, you can see a lot of things on this graph just, right away. 338 00:28:45,880 --> 00:28:48,870 First of all, it's increasing with time. 339 00:28:48,869 --> 00:28:52,289 And here's what the Keeling curve, which is the popular name for this, 340 00:28:52,289 --> 00:28:53,730 looks like today. 341 00:28:53,730 --> 00:28:56,980 And you can see that what was 314 then, 342 00:28:56,980 --> 00:29:01,759 is now 395 or so, pushing 400 today. 343 00:29:01,759 --> 00:29:05,179 That's a remarkable story right there. 344 00:29:05,179 --> 00:29:08,820 Because that increase is something like 25%. 345 00:29:08,819 --> 00:29:14,528 Mankind is changing the chemical composition of the atmosphere in important ways. 346 00:29:14,528 --> 00:29:18,190 And, the greenhouse effect had been understood for a long time. 347 00:29:18,190 --> 00:29:25,190 The fact that Carbon Dioxide, and other molecules trap infrared energy, they trap heat essentially, 348 00:29:25,339 --> 00:29:29,449 had been known to experimental physicists in the middle 1800's. 349 00:29:29,449 --> 00:29:32,750 John Tyndall, in London, put Carbon Dioxide in a tube 350 00:29:32,750 --> 00:29:38,240 and measured how it could absorb infrared energy, which he could shine on it. 351 00:29:38,240 --> 00:29:46,270 The first attempts to understand the implications of this for climate date back to the 1890's. 352 00:29:46,270 --> 00:29:49,499 So, in a sense, the science was there, 353 00:29:49,958 --> 00:29:54,111 connecting Carbon Dioxide amounts of the atmosphere to Climate Change 354 00:29:54,111 --> 00:29:58,924 until we had the measurements showing that the CO2 was actually increasing 355 00:29:58,924 --> 00:30:02,419 and increasing much more quickly than had been foreseen in the nineteen century. 356 00:30:02,419 --> 00:30:06,900 There were more people using more coal and oil and natural gas, 357 00:30:06,900 --> 00:30:11,859 and the rapidity of the growth of CO2 was a surprise to everyone. 358 00:30:12,619 --> 00:30:17,339 Popular mechanics magazine wrote about this in 1953. 359 00:30:17,339 --> 00:30:24,339 The products of research were showing us that if we continue to add Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere, 360 00:30:24,359 --> 00:30:28,158 by burning fossil fuels, we're going to see a rise in temperature 361 00:30:28,278 --> 00:30:34,288 This was the work of Doctor Gilbert Plas, who published a very significant paper on this. 362 00:30:34,288 --> 00:30:41,288 This had been an issue that had been kicked around for the previous hundred years or so, 363 00:30:41,538 --> 00:30:49,358 but, it was this research that really kind of nailed it in so far as making the science clear. 364 00:30:50,020 --> 00:30:55,520 Yet it's taken us this long to really even begin to get through to the public dialogue 365 00:30:55,519 --> 00:30:57,069 on how important this is. 366 00:30:57,069 --> 00:31:02,509 The amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is what matters to the climate. 367 00:31:02,509 --> 00:31:07,418 Climate just reacts to how many and what kinds of heat trapping gases are there. 368 00:31:07,419 --> 00:31:10,510 The more there are of an important gas, like CO2 369 00:31:10,510 --> 00:31:13,389 which is by far the most important man-made gas, 370 00:31:13,390 --> 00:31:14,520 the warmer it gets. 371 00:31:14,519 --> 00:31:18,109 Now, on this graph is temperature and Carbon Dioxide. 372 00:31:18,109 --> 00:31:21,298 Let's look at the black line first. That's Carbon Dioxide. 373 00:31:21,298 --> 00:31:23,409 1880 on the left, the present on the right, 374 00:31:23,490 --> 00:31:28,519 and so, we know that it was rising gradually before Keelings measurements began. 375 00:31:28,519 --> 00:31:33,009 And that, in the times before the 1800's, 376 00:31:33,009 --> 00:31:36,980 when human activities presumably had no strong effect on climate, 377 00:31:36,980 --> 00:31:42,210 It was near a value of 280 and these same units of molecules per million molecules. 378 00:31:42,210 --> 00:31:48,490 So CO2 has been rising, but in all the years before the 1930's, 379 00:31:48,490 --> 00:31:51,048 you might say, every year was below that average, 380 00:31:51,048 --> 00:31:53,829 and in recent years, every year's been above it. 381 00:31:53,829 --> 00:31:58,839 Again, the natural variability is due to factors like El Nino and the occasional strong Volcano, 382 00:31:58,839 --> 00:32:02,099 which temporarily cools the climate for a year or two. 383 00:32:02,099 --> 00:32:07,480 And uh, so these things here are some of the strongest El Nino's on record. 384 00:32:07,480 --> 00:32:10,000 But that there's a warming now and that this period is different 385 00:32:10,000 --> 00:32:13,240 from this period, isn't in doubt at all. 386 00:32:13,240 --> 00:32:16,130 So the question that people typically ask is... 387 00:32:16,130 --> 00:32:18,699 How do we know this isn't just some kind of a normal cycle? 388 00:32:18,699 --> 00:32:21,859 OK. It's getting warmer but, It's been warmer in the past. 389 00:32:21,859 --> 00:32:24,089 It's been colder in the past. 390 00:32:24,089 --> 00:32:26,959 How do we know this is different from the past? 391 00:32:26,960 --> 00:32:27,840 Well. 392 00:32:27,839 --> 00:32:33,269 We can measure what's coming into and out of the planet by satellite, 393 00:32:33,269 --> 00:32:35,908 and the satellites do a pretty good job of this. 394 00:32:35,909 --> 00:32:41,559 We know, that, the planet is in energy imbalance. 395 00:32:41,558 --> 00:32:48,130 We know that that energy imbalance is completely consistent with the predictions 396 00:32:48,130 --> 00:32:51,470 that have been made about greenhouse gases. 397 00:32:51,470 --> 00:32:54,339 And we know that that's quite a big energy imbalance. 398 00:32:54,339 --> 00:32:55,798 It's not small. 399 00:32:55,798 --> 00:33:02,798 In fact, it's equal to about 400 thousand Hiroshima nuclear bombs exploding everyday. 400 00:33:03,409 --> 00:33:05,880 That's about four or five every second or so. 401 00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:11,110 That's how much energy is being trapped, primarily in the ocean 402 00:33:11,110 --> 00:33:14,990 because the ocean is the biggest heat sink, by far. 403 00:33:14,990 --> 00:33:20,690 So, natural sources are in balance between emission and absorption. 404 00:33:20,690 --> 00:33:23,970 The oceans are actually net absorbers but... 405 00:33:23,970 --> 00:33:26,370 Human beings. It's one-way traffic. 406 00:33:26,369 --> 00:33:30,019 So it's only us that can be causing the increase. 407 00:33:30,019 --> 00:33:34,148 Everything else, even volcanoes, is balanced by uptake. 408 00:33:34,148 --> 00:33:37,599 So, it's only us, that can be causing the increase. 409 00:33:37,599 --> 00:33:41,089 From here you are in the early nineteen hundreds til today. 410 00:33:41,089 --> 00:33:44,479 Blue is cooler than average, and yellow and orange are warmer than average 411 00:33:44,479 --> 00:33:47,339 and you can see here, it's still some blue areas and so on. 412 00:33:47,339 --> 00:33:53,688 But starting in the 1970´s, you start to see the yellow and orange colors predominating. 413 00:33:53,688 --> 00:33:57,508 By the time this ends in 2010 or so, 414 00:33:57,508 --> 00:34:01,119 you can see what the world looks like today in this picture. 415 00:34:01,119 --> 00:34:02,429 There's warming everywhere. 416 00:34:02,429 --> 00:34:05,370 There's more warming over the continents than over the oceans. 417 00:34:05,369 --> 00:34:07,609 There's more warming in the North than in the South. 418 00:34:07,609 --> 00:34:09,690 And there's the strongest warming in the Arctic. 419 00:34:09,690 --> 00:34:13,369 This is a Mercator projection so it exaggerates the area of the Arctic. 420 00:34:13,369 --> 00:34:16,460 But the warming is strongest in high Northern latitudes. 421 00:34:16,460 --> 00:34:19,688 And that's because of a number of feedbacks that we think we understand 422 00:34:19,688 --> 00:34:23,818 of which the most important is that, when warming occurs in the far North, 423 00:34:23,818 --> 00:34:26,119 the ice and snow melt , as we've seen. 424 00:34:26,119 --> 00:34:31,277 And, the ice and snow having melted revealed darker water and darker land that was under them, 425 00:34:31,940 --> 00:34:34,789 which reflect less sunlight and therefore absorb more sunlight. 426 00:34:34,789 --> 00:34:39,228 So the chain of events is Carbon Dioxide causes the warming, 427 00:34:39,228 --> 00:34:40,777 the warming melts snow and ice, 428 00:34:40,777 --> 00:34:44,277 the melted snow and ice make the surface darker, 429 00:34:44,277 --> 00:34:46,829 the darker surface absorbs more sunlight, 430 00:34:46,829 --> 00:34:48,829 and that adds to the warming. 431 00:34:48,829 --> 00:34:51,649 The human trigger is now almost irrelevant. 432 00:34:51,648 --> 00:34:54,748 The feedbacks have taken over. 433 00:34:54,748 --> 00:34:57,298 The mirror that's at the top of the world is gonna be gone. 434 00:34:57,298 --> 00:35:01,579 It won't be gone in the wintertime but the Sun's not shining on it in the wintertime. 435 00:35:01,579 --> 00:35:03,640 So, it matters in the summertime. 436 00:35:03,639 --> 00:35:10,400 One of the key effects that this has is that when all of these Northern areas are covered 437 00:35:10,400 --> 00:35:13,619 with white reflective snow and ice, 438 00:35:13,619 --> 00:35:17,249 it bounces most of the Solar energy off, 439 00:35:17,248 --> 00:35:19,838 bounces it back off into space. 440 00:35:19,838 --> 00:35:22,419 But, when we are seeing 441 00:35:22,419 --> 00:35:27,368 more and more open water, dark soil and dark surfaces, 442 00:35:27,369 --> 00:35:29,749 then the solar energy tends to get absorbed. 443 00:35:29,748 --> 00:35:32,208 So instead of reflecting 90% of all the energy, 444 00:35:32,208 --> 00:35:35,228 you're absorbing 90% of all the energy. 445 00:35:35,228 --> 00:35:39,919 So, this is what scientists call: "A Positive Feedback", 446 00:35:39,920 --> 00:35:43,278 and they don't mean that it's good. 447 00:35:43,278 --> 00:35:47,708 It's not a positive thing for us because, it's more like a vicious cycle, 448 00:35:47,708 --> 00:35:50,939 more heat equals less ice, and less ice equals more heat 449 00:35:50,939 --> 00:35:54,759 and it just sort of continues on in a spiral. 450 00:35:54,759 --> 00:35:56,909 And that's what we're seeing in the Arctic. 451 00:35:56,909 --> 00:36:02,690 And that's why the Arctic is warming at about twice the rate of the rest of the planet. 452 00:36:02,690 --> 00:36:07,619 And that means that Sun's energy is being absorbed into the tundra, 453 00:36:07,619 --> 00:36:15,589 the frozen areas of the Northern continental masses and into the open ocean where the ice was. 454 00:36:16,219 --> 00:36:21,630 So that the whole system is now accelerating and accelerating and accelerating 455 00:36:21,630 --> 00:36:24,479 and the hotter it gets the faster it gets hotter. 456 00:36:24,528 --> 00:36:26,900 The faster it gets hotter, the more water vapor. 457 00:36:26,900 --> 00:36:29,209 The more water vapor, the faster it gets hotter. 458 00:36:29,208 --> 00:36:31,199 The faster it gets hotter, the less ice. 459 00:36:31,199 --> 00:36:35,009 The less ice, the less reflection so the faster it gets hotter... 460 00:36:35,009 --> 00:36:36,798 You begin to get the idea? 461 00:36:36,798 --> 00:36:38,920 It has to be a downward curving, 462 00:36:38,920 --> 00:36:42,979 what we call exponential decay. 463 00:36:42,978 --> 00:36:49,379 And you project that line forward as is done in this particular setting of the equations 464 00:36:49,380 --> 00:36:52,588 and understanding of Arctic ice mass loss, 465 00:36:52,588 --> 00:36:59,588 then, once again, it shows zero ice floating on the Arctic ocean... 466 00:36:59,599 --> 00:37:02,870 by the end of Summer... 2015. 467 00:37:03,309 --> 00:37:11,259 Which confirms precisely, my own work on the decay of Arctic ice area to the same date. 468 00:37:11,789 --> 00:37:17,099 Mind you, at the same time, the thickness of the ice has also been diminishing. 469 00:37:17,099 --> 00:37:20,079 The ice in the Arctic now is thinner than it used to be, 470 00:37:20,079 --> 00:37:22,610 thus more vulnerable to melting. 471 00:37:22,949 --> 00:37:25,528 And just to give you an example of what's happening 472 00:37:25,528 --> 00:37:28,059 just in this past season... 473 00:37:28,059 --> 00:37:30,450 This is from March 474 00:37:30,449 --> 00:37:33,760 March and April of 2013. 475 00:37:33,760 --> 00:37:39,679 Looking at this area above Alaska. 476 00:37:39,679 --> 00:37:44,690 We had a cyclone going on, up in this area, that was moving, causing some torque on this ice 477 00:37:44,690 --> 00:37:50,179 and the ice just started to fracture and break up, in a manner that was very very unusual. 478 00:37:50,179 --> 00:37:53,798 I talked to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center, 479 00:37:53,798 --> 00:37:59,650 and they said: "What you're seeing here is happening because this ice would've been maybe 480 00:37:59,650 --> 00:38:04,349 twenty feet thick thirty years ago, and now it's only three feet thick." 481 00:38:04,349 --> 00:38:07,430 And so it´s getting pushed around and broken up. 482 00:38:07,430 --> 00:38:13,690 And much of this did in fact refreeze, but it refroze in a manner that was much thinner, 483 00:38:13,690 --> 00:38:20,339 much more fragile, and it´s now being pushed around, deformed much more easily 484 00:38:20,339 --> 00:38:23,639 and melted much more quickly then it would've been fifty years ago. 485 00:38:23,639 --> 00:38:28,978 When our people think about Climate Change, they think in 2100. 2100! 486 00:38:28,978 --> 00:38:32,099 We might have two feet of more sea level. 487 00:38:32,099 --> 00:38:34,320 Gee, well, I can kinda deal with that... 488 00:38:34,320 --> 00:38:38,190 We're talking about 2010. 2020. 489 00:38:38,639 --> 00:38:40,978 It's gonna be really serious impacts. 490 00:38:40,978 --> 00:38:45,578 If any of these things happen which could happen... anytime. 491 00:38:45,579 --> 00:38:49,519 It's like playin Russian Roulette with kind of a few bullets in the chamber. 492 00:38:49,518 --> 00:38:52,028 As the temperature starts to increase more quickly, 493 00:38:52,028 --> 00:38:56,650 then other feedbacks are also brought into play, 494 00:38:56,650 --> 00:39:00,698 and more powerfully then they had been previously. 495 00:39:03,028 --> 00:39:07,199 The sixth consequence concerns what's happening to the Greenland icecap. 496 00:39:08,689 --> 00:39:13,749 Now, it sits there as a one-and-a-half mile thick 497 00:39:14,889 --> 00:39:19,139 layer of ice across a large piece of land mass. 498 00:39:20,268 --> 00:39:22,938 Once upon a time, 15 000 years ago, 499 00:39:22,938 --> 00:39:28,768 we had great ice sheets, covering our most populous zones 500 00:39:29,998 --> 00:39:31,588 in the Western hemisphere. 501 00:39:31,588 --> 00:39:39,148 Those ice sheets retreated, very rapidly when the climate and the oceans switched. 502 00:39:39,179 --> 00:39:46,869 And what we're getting here now is a rate of retreat that, I believe, is unprecedented 503 00:39:46,998 --> 00:39:49,929 in terms of the last ten-thousand years. 504 00:39:49,929 --> 00:39:54,949 Earlier this month, the surface of the ice sheet covering Greenland melted more widely 505 00:39:54,949 --> 00:39:58,498 than has been seen in thirty-three years of satellite imagery. 506 00:39:58,498 --> 00:40:01,338 We got some reports that there was melt going on around Greenland. 507 00:40:01,338 --> 00:40:04,659 Literally, like so much water running off that it was washing out bridges and things. 508 00:40:04,659 --> 00:40:07,578 That there were runways that were on the snow that were having problems. 509 00:40:07,579 --> 00:40:09,609 You just had to be here, 510 00:40:09,608 --> 00:40:16,248 this time last year, to watch this bridge, completely wash-out. 511 00:40:16,248 --> 00:40:21,399 The discharge of the river, at the point was... 512 00:40:21,400 --> 00:40:23,889 basically two-hundred times that of the Thames. 513 00:40:23,889 --> 00:40:28,699 The effect is small, so far... 514 00:40:28,699 --> 00:40:34,079 but, Greenland's mass loss has doubled over the last decade. 515 00:40:34,079 --> 00:40:39,690 And if that pattern of doubling continues over coming decades, 516 00:40:39,690 --> 00:40:45,029 then we're gonna have to rewrite some of the predictions that we've made 517 00:40:45,029 --> 00:40:48,259 about how rapidly this is gonna happen. 518 00:40:48,259 --> 00:40:52,989 The bed of the ice sheet and the interior ice sheet is frozen to it's base. 519 00:40:52,989 --> 00:40:54,478 And it's starting to slip. 520 00:40:54,478 --> 00:40:59,679 This is the bedrock. OK? 521 00:40:59,679 --> 00:41:01,588 And this is your ice. 522 00:41:01,588 --> 00:41:06,139 And this is your water. 523 00:41:06,139 --> 00:41:11,978 And that this water suddenly and violently drains through this channel. 524 00:41:11,978 --> 00:41:16,948 Then suddenly you have a change in direction but it goes very fast. 525 00:41:16,949 --> 00:41:19,349 We're focusing on this little lake over here, 526 00:41:19,349 --> 00:41:25,009 you can see these mountain water lakes popping up across the surface of the ice sheet 527 00:41:25,009 --> 00:41:28,420 as the weather gets warmer and warmer. 528 00:41:28,420 --> 00:41:32,179 So, what you'll see here is this meanders along, it meanders along 529 00:41:32,179 --> 00:41:36,150 until it goes down, into the ice, right there. 530 00:41:36,150 --> 00:41:37,989 And as it goes down, 531 00:41:37,989 --> 00:41:42,219 it's delivering all that heat down into the deep levels of the ice. 532 00:41:42,219 --> 00:41:45,659 So now the heat goes down here and, just like a stick of butter, 533 00:41:45,659 --> 00:41:48,409 the ice sheet begins to get soft. 534 00:41:48,409 --> 00:41:52,689 It begins to move faster and that water goes down to the bottom 535 00:41:52,689 --> 00:41:55,778 and, because it's an incompressible fluid, 536 00:41:55,778 --> 00:41:58,248 It will support, even a kilometer of ice. 537 00:41:58,248 --> 00:42:03,948 It will lubricate even a huge volume of ice and make it move faster over that rocky surface. 538 00:42:03,949 --> 00:42:08,068 So that accelerates the process as well. 539 00:42:08,068 --> 00:42:13,170 The water across the surface of this ice sheet is rampant, 540 00:42:13,170 --> 00:42:19,400 and it's causing untold damage to the base of the ice sheet, 541 00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:24,430 and it's doing that in deep interior regions that never before, 542 00:42:24,429 --> 00:42:30,948 not least in the last ten-thousand years, have been susceptible to that warming. 543 00:42:30,949 --> 00:42:32,809 That water input. 544 00:42:32,809 --> 00:42:36,609 That water draining down into the ice is relatively warm. 545 00:42:36,608 --> 00:42:43,950 The average temperature of the ice sheet, at depth, is several degrees below the freezing point, 546 00:42:44,119 --> 00:42:48,659 whereas the water that's draining in is right at the freezing point. 547 00:42:48,659 --> 00:42:55,629 So this is relatively warm water that drains in and it heats the ice sheet, internally. 548 00:42:55,630 --> 00:42:59,789 Warmer ice deforms more easily than cold ice. 549 00:42:59,789 --> 00:43:05,469 So, an increase in melt water draining in to the ice sheet has a softening effect, 550 00:43:05,469 --> 00:43:08,509 especially when the amount of melt water is increasing. 551 00:43:08,509 --> 00:43:11,599 You know, Greenland is 23 feet of sea level. 552 00:43:11,599 --> 00:43:14,890 7.3 meters, if it all melts. 553 00:43:14,889 --> 00:43:18,288 And the history is very clear. 554 00:43:18,289 --> 00:43:21,019 When it was warm, there's no ice on Greenland. 555 00:43:21,018 --> 00:43:23,899 When it's cold, there's lots of ice on Greenland. 556 00:43:23,900 --> 00:43:28,118 And so it's very clear Greenland is very tightly tied to temperature 557 00:43:28,118 --> 00:43:30,889 and if it gets too hot it goes away. 558 00:43:30,889 --> 00:43:36,409 And too hot is not very many degrees above where we are now... 559 00:43:36,409 --> 00:43:38,788 And this is the Ilulissat glacier. 560 00:43:38,789 --> 00:43:43,160 This is the calving front of Ilulissat glacier that we flew along on the first day. 561 00:43:43,159 --> 00:43:46,308 This is the fastest moving ice stream in the world. 562 00:43:46,309 --> 00:43:47,959 It's 400 feet high. 563 00:43:47,958 --> 00:43:53,948 The water is coming down under the ice and squirting out down here, below the water line, 564 00:43:53,949 --> 00:43:55,748 like... a Jacuzzi. 565 00:43:55,749 --> 00:43:59,090 And it's creating circulation down here 566 00:43:59,090 --> 00:44:05,969 and it's drawing warm ocean water in underneaththe the water line here. 567 00:44:05,969 --> 00:44:10,329 And it makes it accelerate the calving off of the giant glaciers. 568 00:44:10,329 --> 00:44:14,109 And this whole bay here is just full of gigantic glaciers. 569 00:44:14,109 --> 00:44:16,589 As that movement accelerates... 570 00:44:16,588 --> 00:44:20,588 the ice upstream begins to crack and deform, like this, 571 00:44:20,588 --> 00:44:26,078 and, you can see, as it cracks, that water begins to collect in those cracks. 572 00:44:26,079 --> 00:44:31,919 And that water begins to absorb more heat and, because water is heavier than ice, 573 00:44:31,919 --> 00:44:37,469 it actually begins to hydro fracture it's way, down into the ice sheet. 574 00:44:37,469 --> 00:44:40,659 accelerating the movement even further. 575 00:44:40,659 --> 00:44:45,448 So what you're seeing is that, at every stage, 576 00:44:45,448 --> 00:44:51,984 there is a different kind of a process that, not only feeds on itself, 577 00:44:51,984 --> 00:44:56,220 but feeds into all the other processes in the cycle. 578 00:44:57,480 --> 00:45:00,048 On the ice sheet, if you wanna know what's happening, 579 00:45:00,048 --> 00:45:03,529 you need to just follow the water and see what it's telling you. 580 00:45:03,588 --> 00:45:05,858 And this is the story that it's telling us. 581 00:45:05,858 --> 00:45:10,218 This is why scientists are starting to feel that 582 00:45:10,249 --> 00:45:18,905 Greenland and ice sheets across the planet have the capacity to move much faster 583 00:45:18,905 --> 00:45:26,021 then what they have during human experience. 584 00:45:27,051 --> 00:45:34,499 So, the big concern is that we don't tip ourselves into some kind of an event like that 585 00:45:34,630 --> 00:45:40,899 where the ice sheets begin to move at a pace that is really beyond human capacity to keep up with. 586 00:45:42,139 --> 00:45:48,228 As we move to acceleratingly increasing temperature change, 587 00:45:48,228 --> 00:45:54,868 as the waters all around Greenland are no longer covered with floating ice, 588 00:45:55,678 --> 00:46:00,969 and as the temperature of those waters around begins to increase, 589 00:46:00,969 --> 00:46:06,368 so, of course the air over Greenland is hotter. 590 00:46:07,838 --> 00:46:10,588 The waters around it are hotter. 591 00:46:11,598 --> 00:46:14,458 The ice surface begins to melt, 592 00:46:15,578 --> 00:46:17,449 right across the dome. 593 00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:24,060 Well, last year in this place where we actually flew into, Kangerlussuaq, 594 00:46:24,060 --> 00:46:26,209 this is what the river looked like there. 595 00:46:26,209 --> 00:46:28,818 It was overflowing, this bridge was washing out, 596 00:46:28,818 --> 00:46:31,059 giant machinery was being swept away 597 00:46:31,059 --> 00:46:38,448 because we were seeing melting that was happening over the entire surface of the ice sheet. 598 00:46:41,829 --> 00:46:46,789 They had never seen this kind of water flow there in that river. 599 00:46:47,449 --> 00:46:52,920 So. The consequences for the Greenland ice cap are massive. 600 00:46:53,940 --> 00:46:58,869 And as it melts, it adds fresh water to the global ocean, 601 00:46:59,639 --> 00:47:01,989 and starts to raise the sea level... 602 00:47:02,909 --> 00:47:11,099 If it goes quickly then we can expect 2, 3, 5, 7 meters of sea level change... 603 00:47:11,509 --> 00:47:13,558 right across the world, 604 00:47:13,559 --> 00:47:16,099 to happen, on a decadal basis. 605 00:47:16,099 --> 00:47:18,560 i.e., within 10 to 20 years. 606 00:47:19,579 --> 00:47:24,269 That would be catastrophic for civilization, 607 00:47:24,268 --> 00:47:30,658 many of whose urban centers would be below sea level, in the new situation. 608 00:47:31,409 --> 00:47:35,028 Actually, the Greenland ice sheet is de-glaciating. 609 00:47:35,028 --> 00:47:36,958 It's retreating... 610 00:47:36,958 --> 00:47:39,848 but it's retreat is dynamic. 611 00:47:39,849 --> 00:47:47,559 It's drawing down the interior of the ice sheet, faster than the models assume at present. 612 00:47:47,818 --> 00:47:51,838 And hence, the ice sheet and it's interior is accelerating, 613 00:47:51,838 --> 00:47:55,198 and the melt of the margin is enhanced, 614 00:47:55,198 --> 00:48:01,088 and I think that means that this ice sheet is ... actively de-glaciating. 615 00:48:01,699 --> 00:48:07,319 And that's... a pretty serious problem, for sea level rise. 616 00:48:09,489 --> 00:48:11,970 Let's move on now to the fourth consequence. 617 00:48:11,970 --> 00:48:15,350 And that is the impact on the tundra. 618 00:48:16,719 --> 00:48:21,378 Those land masses, that border onto the Artic ocean, 619 00:48:22,048 --> 00:48:26,249 now have a warmer, open sea coast, 620 00:48:26,969 --> 00:48:32,339 and the warmer air and the warmer temperatures are being fedback over the land mass. 621 00:48:32,998 --> 00:48:38,799 And of course what that does is increase the rate of melting of the tundra permafrost, 622 00:48:38,799 --> 00:48:44,338 and we get this depth of permafrost melt, which we call the cast, 623 00:48:44,338 --> 00:48:46,789 increases year on year. 624 00:48:47,699 --> 00:48:50,359 That also has consequences. 625 00:48:51,579 --> 00:48:58,519 For instance, there's a lot of biological material in the deep freeze of the tundra, 626 00:48:58,518 --> 00:49:03,310 and as that thaws out, it begins to decay, the microbes have a field day 627 00:49:03,310 --> 00:49:08,679 and out comes more carbon dioxide and more methane from the rotting vegetation. 628 00:49:09,659 --> 00:49:12,688 So, methane is being released into the atmosphere... 629 00:49:12,688 --> 00:49:19,018 not only from the ocean floor, but also, as I said, from the melting of the tundra. 630 00:49:19,688 --> 00:49:22,468 And the more methane there is in the atmosphere, 631 00:49:22,469 --> 00:49:24,929 as this next slide shows, 632 00:49:24,929 --> 00:49:28,769 the greater the greenhouse effect, and methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas. 633 00:49:29,279 --> 00:49:31,969 When the permafrost thaws, 634 00:49:32,220 --> 00:49:36,919 the organic matter in the permafrost thaws as well and begins to decay. 635 00:49:36,919 --> 00:49:39,380 The microorganisms start to eat it. 636 00:49:39,380 --> 00:49:43,528 If there's no oxygen, the microorganisms make methane. 637 00:49:43,528 --> 00:49:49,789 If there's oxygen, the microorganisms make carbon dioxide. 638 00:49:50,869 --> 00:49:54,129 Ahh, permafrost. Right here. 639 00:49:54,569 --> 00:49:57,560 Frozen dirt. 640 00:49:57,560 --> 00:50:01,588 We found, as far as the organic matter coming out of this hill slope, 641 00:50:01,588 --> 00:50:03,859 is that it's much more bio-available, 642 00:50:03,859 --> 00:50:08,269 meaning it's yummier for the microbes that are decomposing it, 643 00:50:08,799 --> 00:50:12,939 than carbon, or organic matter near the surface today. 644 00:50:12,938 --> 00:50:14,899 So that has climate implications. 645 00:50:14,900 --> 00:50:17,969 Because that means that this organic matter is processed quicker, 646 00:50:17,969 --> 00:50:21,229 it's return to the atmosphere is carbon dioxide and methane, 647 00:50:21,228 --> 00:50:24,058 and can feed back on climate that way. 648 00:50:24,058 --> 00:50:29,458 Sites like this where the permafrost is releasing organic matter act as accelerators. 649 00:50:29,458 --> 00:50:32,919 They speed up the process of human caused climate change. 650 00:50:32,920 --> 00:50:36,079 So it's uh, it's a large amplification of what we're doing. 651 00:50:36,079 --> 00:50:38,089 It feeds back on to our impact. 652 00:50:38,088 --> 00:50:42,338 It's important to realize that the scale and rate of change that we're talking about now 653 00:50:42,338 --> 00:50:46,360 is several degrees, two to five degrees in just a hundred years. 654 00:50:46,360 --> 00:50:50,648 So this is much faster than has happened in the last 50 million years. 655 00:50:50,648 --> 00:50:55,209 We're talking about unprecedented climate change and a very rapid abrupt response 656 00:50:55,209 --> 00:50:57,670 from this eco-system. 657 00:50:57,670 --> 00:51:01,379 There have been changes in the Arctic, in the permafrost, 658 00:51:01,379 --> 00:51:03,629 in terms of the temperature overtime, 659 00:51:03,630 --> 00:51:07,059 not only in the shallow layers near the surface, 660 00:51:07,059 --> 00:51:09,829 but at 10, 20 and 50 meter depths. 661 00:51:09,829 --> 00:51:12,699 You're seeing changes that are even more rapid. 662 00:51:12,699 --> 00:51:14,930 That indicates that not only is there heating near the surface, 663 00:51:14,929 --> 00:51:19,649 but that this heat is being transported to depth, very efficiently. 664 00:51:21,950 --> 00:51:26,188 The permafrost stores methane. 665 00:51:26,188 --> 00:51:29,059 As Richard was talking about, it's currently melting. 666 00:51:29,369 --> 00:51:33,099 It's warmer up there. It's like, 5 degrees warmer up in the Arctic than it is... 667 00:51:33,099 --> 00:51:35,118 The average temperature of the world is only up a degree 668 00:51:35,118 --> 00:51:37,409 but in the Arctic it's up five degrees. 669 00:51:37,409 --> 00:51:44,409 And it's releasing 50 million tons per year, which is a billion tons of CO2. 670 00:51:44,518 --> 00:51:46,428 And it's obviously rising. 671 00:51:46,428 --> 00:51:49,689 If it all went, we'd basically all be dead. I mean. 672 00:51:49,689 --> 00:51:52,588 And, it's happening now. 673 00:51:52,588 --> 00:51:55,028 And the problem here is it's accelerating. 674 00:51:55,028 --> 00:51:59,728 Once it starts generating, through this process or any of the other ones I talk about, 675 00:51:59,728 --> 00:52:04,149 once those processes generate more CO2 than we do, 676 00:52:04,149 --> 00:52:08,629 it won't matter if we stopped completely, 677 00:52:08,629 --> 00:52:10,088 it's gonna keep going. 678 00:52:10,088 --> 00:52:12,018 These are positive feedback loops. 679 00:52:12,018 --> 00:52:16,338 And by the way, it's not in the models. 680 00:52:24,088 --> 00:52:31,528 The fifth implication of the Arctic dynamics concerns the feedback of the methane release. 681 00:52:32,219 --> 00:52:37,159 It is probably one of the most important issues that we have to examine. 682 00:52:37,159 --> 00:52:40,479 We will be in danger of destabilizing these things called methane hydrates 683 00:52:40,479 --> 00:52:43,739 which store a lot of methane on the bottom of the ocean, 684 00:52:43,739 --> 00:52:46,399 in a kind of frozen form, 685 00:52:46,399 --> 00:52:48,099 10 000 billion tons of this stuff. 686 00:52:48,099 --> 00:52:51,559 And they are known to be destabilized by warming. 687 00:52:51,559 --> 00:52:55,420 This chunk of ice may look pretty unremarkable at first glance, 688 00:52:55,420 --> 00:52:59,579 but put a match to it and something amazing happens... 689 00:52:59,579 --> 00:53:03,189 As reported in this month's issue of the Atlantic, it's called methane hydrate, 690 00:53:03,188 --> 00:53:05,389 and it's actually not unusual at all. 691 00:53:05,389 --> 00:53:10,659 In fact, there are more than one-hundred thousand trillion cubic feet of it on Earth. 692 00:53:10,659 --> 00:53:13,578 Volume wise, that's like the size of the Mediterranean sea. 693 00:53:13,579 --> 00:53:19,729 And it has a greater energy capacity than all the coal, oil and natural gas on Earth combined. 694 00:53:19,729 --> 00:53:22,308 And well methane burns clean. 695 00:53:22,309 --> 00:53:24,590 Unburned methane is a potent greenhouse gas, 696 00:53:24,590 --> 00:53:27,188 and if it leaks, it can be devastating to the environment. 697 00:53:27,188 --> 00:53:32,179 The USGS is confident leakage won't be a problem, as long as proper precautions are taken. 698 00:53:32,179 --> 00:53:36,989 There are potential irreversible effects of melting the sea ice. 699 00:53:36,989 --> 00:53:45,899 If it begins to allow the Arctic ocean to warm up and warm the ocean floor, 700 00:53:45,908 --> 00:53:49,368 then, we'll begin to release methane hydrate. 701 00:53:49,368 --> 00:53:56,028 About 80 years ago, we switched to studying the East Siberian Arctic shelf. 702 00:53:56,028 --> 00:54:00,909 And actually, we've been studying it for the last 80 years. 703 00:54:00,909 --> 00:54:03,608 Continuously, year by year by year. 704 00:54:03,608 --> 00:54:08,969 Conducting one or two expeditions a year. 705 00:54:08,969 --> 00:54:15,969 That hydrocarbons are produced within the sedimentary drape, was sealed 706 00:54:17,119 --> 00:54:20,818 and prevented the methane escape into the atmosphere. 707 00:54:20,818 --> 00:54:27,818 That is why we're telling that this should be the largest hydrocarbon stock in the world. 708 00:54:27,969 --> 00:54:28,949 Over there... 709 00:54:28,949 --> 00:54:33,269 There is a potential risk that, if warming continues, 710 00:54:33,269 --> 00:54:37,199 the larger and, maybe, great and massive amount of methane 711 00:54:37,199 --> 00:54:39,849 could be released from this Arctic shelf. 712 00:54:39,849 --> 00:54:41,789 Of course there is a potential risk. 713 00:54:41,789 --> 00:54:48,640 And in terms of potential risk, I would say that this Siberian Arctic shelf has the most potential. 714 00:54:48,778 --> 00:54:54,528 Because, as I said, the carbon pool is huge and the wall of the shell is very shallow 715 00:54:54,528 --> 00:55:01,159 and the warming occurs stronger than in different areas of the worlds ocean. 716 00:55:01,159 --> 00:55:03,800 And of course it is a potential risk. 717 00:55:04,780 --> 00:55:07,849 So the methane in the atmosphere, 718 00:55:07,849 --> 00:55:11,739 the amount, the total amount of methane in the atmosphere, 719 00:55:11,739 --> 00:55:13,499 in the current atmosphere, 720 00:55:13,498 --> 00:55:16,368 it's about five Gigatonnes. 721 00:55:16,369 --> 00:55:22,548 The amount of carbon preserved in the form of methane in this East Siberian Arctic shelf, 722 00:55:22,548 --> 00:55:24,509 is approximately... 723 00:55:24,509 --> 00:55:27,608 from hundreds to thousands of Gigatonnes. 724 00:55:27,608 --> 00:55:32,879 And of course it's only one percent of that amount is required 725 00:55:32,879 --> 00:55:36,410 to double the atmosphere burden of methane. 726 00:55:36,410 --> 00:55:40,449 But to destabilize one percent of this carbon pool, 727 00:55:40,498 --> 00:55:44,868 I think it's not much effort needed, 728 00:55:44,869 --> 00:55:51,390 considering that the state of permafrost and the amount of methane currently involved. 729 00:55:51,389 --> 00:55:58,699 Because what divides this methane from the atmosphere is a very shallow water column, 730 00:55:58,920 --> 00:56:01,390 and a weakening permafrost, 731 00:56:01,389 --> 00:56:03,759 which is losing it's ability to seal, 732 00:56:03,759 --> 00:56:06,108 to serve as a seal. 733 00:56:06,108 --> 00:56:10,598 And this is, I think it's a matter of... 734 00:56:10,599 --> 00:56:14,889 it's not a matter of thousands of years, it's a matter of decades, I think. 735 00:56:14,889 --> 00:56:19,298 Maybe, at most, hundred years but I think, 736 00:56:19,298 --> 00:56:21,708 matter of decades. 737 00:56:21,708 --> 00:56:25,214 (It could happen any day) 738 00:56:25,214 --> 00:56:28,722 It might potentially happen because, 739 00:56:32,759 --> 00:56:40,260 I would list many factors that might, that are very convenient .. convincing for us. 740 00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:45,709 So that might happen. 741 00:56:45,708 --> 00:56:48,748 Not anytime. 742 00:56:48,748 --> 00:56:51,889 Anytime sounds like it might happen today. 743 00:56:51,889 --> 00:56:53,708 It might happen tomorrow. 744 00:56:53,708 --> 00:56:56,321 The day after tomorrow. (It might!) 745 00:56:56,494 --> 00:56:58,608 You think so? 746 00:57:01,759 --> 00:57:08,289 Igor is very convinced person because he spend a lot of time over there. 747 00:57:08,739 --> 00:57:15,739 And where the ice should be about two meters thick, it was 40 centimeters thick... 748 00:57:17,088 --> 00:57:20,298 That means that the processes... 749 00:57:20,298 --> 00:57:25,728 All the processes that serves the stabilization of everything... 750 00:57:25,728 --> 00:57:32,038 of the sea ice, of the water column, of the currents increasing, 751 00:57:32,039 --> 00:57:36,499 (the currents, I mean the movement of water beneath the sea ice increased). 752 00:57:36,498 --> 00:57:43,399 So everything, everything looks anomalous. Even from our experience from this ten years, 753 00:57:43,400 --> 00:57:45,338 everything looks anomalous. 754 00:57:45,338 --> 00:57:51,068 And this is what makes him thinking that... 755 00:57:51,068 --> 00:57:58,068 making him think that the worst thing might happen... 756 00:58:08,010 --> 00:58:11,920 Shortly speaking, we do not like what we see there, 757 00:58:11,920 --> 00:58:14,659 absolutely do not like. 758 00:58:14,659 --> 00:58:17,009 Uh, look at this. 759 00:58:17,009 --> 00:58:21,129 In a matter of days... just days, 760 00:58:21,199 --> 00:58:25,269 we're having this huge, this huge area... 761 00:58:25,268 --> 00:58:27,659 look at this.... 762 00:58:27,659 --> 00:58:32,629 going almost exploding with methane. 763 00:58:32,630 --> 00:58:38,949 The only way this is possible is by melting of methane clathrate. 764 00:58:39,308 --> 00:58:42,068 It´s just the only explanation 765 00:59:24,258 --> 00:59:27,468 Hi, uhm... how long do you think we have before it becomes 766 00:59:27,468 --> 00:59:30,938 socially and otherwise unacceptable to emit carbon. 767 00:59:30,938 --> 00:59:34,288 and, I mean, how radically do you think we need to act consensually? 768 00:59:34,289 --> 00:59:36,839 Right, well I mean... 769 00:59:36,838 --> 00:59:43,548 I think, it's, the more we act, the better things will be for future generations. 770 00:59:43,548 --> 00:59:47,920 I don't, yeah, I mean there's all sorts of estimates. 771 00:59:47,920 --> 00:59:49,139 And um... 772 00:59:49,139 --> 00:59:54,679 Basically, if we do a huge amount within the next ten years, 773 00:59:54,679 --> 00:59:57,798 we will still face quite an uncomfortable future, 774 00:59:57,798 --> 01:00:01,208 and the less we do, the worse it will get. 775 01:00:01,208 --> 01:00:04,879 How much of it we can prevent, depends on how bold we are, 776 01:00:04,880 --> 01:00:10,749 how much we're prepared to do, and that in turn is going to depend on changing social opinions. 777 01:00:13,360 --> 01:00:16,088 What are the implications of all this, 778 01:00:16,088 --> 01:00:18,318 for global dynamic behavior, 779 01:00:18,318 --> 01:00:23,409 both in climate, and indeed, for humanity as a civilization, 780 01:00:23,409 --> 01:00:27,208 and the biosphere of which we are a part? 781 01:00:28,758 --> 01:00:34,139 Well obviously, the Arctic is connected to the rest of the world, it is part of the world, 782 01:00:34,139 --> 01:00:40,719 and what happens in the Arctic inevitably has implications and consequences and spin-off 783 01:00:40,719 --> 01:00:43,318 for the rest of the planet. 784 01:00:43,318 --> 01:00:49,929 Socially, we know we will be beginning to remove some of the aerosols, 785 01:00:49,929 --> 01:00:52,688 these particulates in the atmosphere that, at the moment, 786 01:00:52,688 --> 01:00:56,829 are reflecting much of the solar energy back into space. 787 01:00:57,369 --> 01:01:04,369 We also know that much energy is being taken up by heating of the deeper ocean, at the moment. 788 01:01:05,568 --> 01:01:09,529 And, as the effects of carbon dioxide, and the other greenhouse gases 789 01:01:09,529 --> 01:01:15,678 and the global behavior as a whole, begin to come back on stream, 790 01:01:15,679 --> 01:01:22,679 so, global temperatures will begin to respond much as Arctic temperatures did. 791 01:01:23,159 --> 01:01:26,828 Co2 begins to increase temperature, 792 01:01:26,829 --> 01:01:29,910 increased temperature drives water vapor feedback, 793 01:01:29,909 --> 01:01:33,188 water vapor feedback accelerates heating.... 794 01:01:33,868 --> 01:01:38,759 And then we begin to get hotter conditions for some of the tropical forests, 795 01:01:38,759 --> 01:01:44,158 we get burn and dieback and increased release of carbon dioxide 796 01:01:44,158 --> 01:01:47,618 from the bio-mass of the planet. 797 01:01:47,619 --> 01:01:52,759 It's a different set of feedbacks from that operating in the high Arctic, 798 01:01:52,759 --> 01:01:55,278 but it is nonetheless potent. 799 01:01:56,318 --> 01:02:02,528 And as in the Arctic, so tomorrow, in the world, as a whole. 800 01:02:03,619 --> 01:02:10,619 And if the implications of jet-stream behavior and food production and Arctic dynamics spin-off 801 01:02:11,989 --> 01:02:17,398 into our survival as a species, into our economics, into our food production, 802 01:02:18,208 --> 01:02:22,088 into the abandonment of the poor, 803 01:02:22,088 --> 01:02:29,088 and the inability to sustain a population of eight, nine, ten billion people, 804 01:02:30,418 --> 01:02:32,268 so, also... 805 01:02:32,268 --> 01:02:36,639 The increasing acceleration of global behavior... 806 01:02:36,639 --> 01:02:39,788 which will inevitably follow... 807 01:02:39,789 --> 01:02:45,900 unless we are able to intervene, to slow it down... 808 01:02:45,900 --> 01:02:48,359 bring it to a halt... and reverse it, 809 01:02:50,208 --> 01:02:53,049 then, without that intervention... 810 01:02:53,049 --> 01:02:58,528 global dynamics hold a dark future for humanity... 811 01:02:59,478 --> 01:03:04,869 a dark future for the biosphere of which we are a part. 812 01:03:04,869 --> 01:03:07,838 It is time to take action... 813 01:03:07,838 --> 01:03:11,528 Not only for the Arctic... 814 01:03:11,528 --> 01:03:16,748 but for the global crisis in which we are all placed. 815 01:03:16,748 --> 01:03:21,528 There's not agreement on how much we need to do, how fast. 816 01:03:21,528 --> 01:03:25,528 To be honest, I don't think there needs to be, because the one thing I am certain of is 817 01:03:25,528 --> 01:03:31,698 that we will not do as much as the scientists say we need to do. 818 01:03:31,778 --> 01:03:36,748 That's why I've never sort of looked that closely at that particular question because, 819 01:03:36,748 --> 01:03:40,178 what the scientists say we need to do is over here... 820 01:03:40,179 --> 01:03:44,099 what we're currently doing is way over here.... 821 01:03:44,099 --> 01:03:48,759 and what various global agreements have tried to get us to do, and often failed, 822 01:03:48,759 --> 01:03:50,579 is somewhere over here... 823 01:03:50,579 --> 01:03:52,818 So the gulf is so enormous... 824 01:03:52,818 --> 01:03:57,528 that um, I yeah, I mean, it's a perfectly fair question.... 825 01:03:57,528 --> 01:04:01,958 but for that reason I've never really looked at it in much detail. 826 01:04:01,958 --> 01:04:06,159 But I do believe that the more people believe this... 827 01:04:06,159 --> 01:04:10,618 that the more likely they are to act, so I suspect that there's... 828 01:04:10,618 --> 01:04:13,298 also denial can operate on many levels... 829 01:04:13,298 --> 01:04:20,298 You can sort of believe something factually, but not believe it deep down in your heart, 830 01:04:20,329 --> 01:04:23,150 and so, if you say: "Oh, yes, I accept climate change", 831 01:04:23,150 --> 01:04:28,408 but, but you just won't allow yourself, on an emotional leve,l to think about 832 01:04:28,408 --> 01:04:31,578 what is gonna happen to the planet in the future, 833 01:04:31,579 --> 01:04:34,258 and you can sort of separate your everyday life 834 01:04:34,258 --> 01:04:38,828 from what you believe, in the more academic side of your mind. 835 01:04:38,829 --> 01:04:42,089 So, I think that uh... in many ways, 836 01:04:42,089 --> 01:04:47,179 changing social opinion is the most important thing we can do at present... 837 01:04:47,179 --> 01:04:49,869 to deal with this problem, because then... 838 01:04:49,869 --> 01:04:54,119 people might start moving towards what the scientists are saying we need to do. 839 01:04:57,049 --> 01:05:00,269 We've got a lot of work to do and not much time to do it. 840 01:05:00,268 --> 01:05:04,189 Um, as I Iook at the world, which is sort of where I start. 841 01:05:04,189 --> 01:05:06,630 Um... 842 01:05:06,630 --> 01:05:09,749 We've gotta cut carbon emissions fast. 843 01:05:09,748 --> 01:05:16,418 Then it becomes clear, we need to cut carbon emissions 80%, not by 2050, but by 2020. 844 01:05:16,418 --> 01:05:22,728 For decades now, we environmentalists have been talking about the need to save the planet. 845 01:05:22,728 --> 01:05:27,568 But as I think about it, the planet's gonna be around for a long time to come... 846 01:05:27,568 --> 01:05:31,778 What we need to save now is civilization itself... 847 01:05:31,778 --> 01:05:34,760 This is, this is what's at stake... 848 01:05:36,150 --> 01:05:39,499 Coming up here today, I have no hidden agenda. 849 01:05:39,498 --> 01:05:42,338 I am fighting for my future. 850 01:05:42,338 --> 01:05:46,688 I am here to speak for all generations to come. 851 01:05:46,688 --> 01:05:53,688 I am here to speak on behalf of the starving children around the world whose cries go unheard. 852 01:05:54,298 --> 01:05:58,498 I am here to speak for the countless animals, dying across this planet, 853 01:05:58,498 --> 01:06:02,688 because they have no where left to go... 854 01:06:02,688 --> 01:06:09,458 And now we hear of animals and plants going extinct, everyday, vanishing forever... 855 01:06:09,458 --> 01:06:16,308 All this is happening before our eyes and yet we act as if we have all the time we want 856 01:06:16,309 --> 01:06:18,719 and all the solutions. 857 01:06:18,719 --> 01:06:22,659 You don't know how to fix the holes in our ozone layer. 858 01:06:22,659 --> 01:06:27,068 You don't know how to bring the salmon back up in a dead stream... 859 01:06:27,068 --> 01:06:30,668 You don't know how to bring back an animal now extinct. 860 01:06:30,668 --> 01:06:37,389 And you can't bring back the forest that once grew where there is now a desert... 861 01:06:37,389 --> 01:06:39,489 If you don't know how to fix it, 862 01:06:39,489 --> 01:06:43,278 please... stop breaking it. 863 01:06:43,278 --> 01:06:46,559 I'm only a child yet I know we are all in this together, 864 01:06:46,559 --> 01:06:51,269 and should act as one single world towards one single goal. 865 01:06:51,268 --> 01:06:57,889 If a child on the streets who has nothing is willing to share 866 01:06:57,889 --> 01:07:02,048 then why are we who have everything still so greedy? 867 01:07:03,088 --> 01:07:08,418 I am only a child yet I know if all the money spent on war 868 01:07:08,418 --> 01:07:14,064 was spent on finding environmental answers, ending poverty and finding treaties, 869 01:07:14,064 --> 01:07:17,610 what a wonderful place this earth would be. 870 01:07:17,610 --> 01:07:21,488 At school, even in Kindergarten, 871 01:07:21,489 --> 01:07:25,228 you teach us how to behave in the world. 872 01:07:25,228 --> 01:07:31,409 You teach us, not to fight with others... to work things out, 873 01:07:31,409 --> 01:07:33,259 to respect others, 874 01:07:33,259 --> 01:07:34,918 to clean up our mess, 875 01:07:34,918 --> 01:07:37,429 not to hurt other creatures, 876 01:07:37,429 --> 01:07:40,039 to share, not be greedy. 877 01:07:40,130 --> 01:07:46,139 Then why do you go out and do the things you tell us not to do? 878 01:07:46,139 --> 01:07:49,969 You are deciding what kind of a world we are growing up in. 879 01:07:49,969 --> 01:07:53,588 Parent's should be able to comfort their children by saying 880 01:07:53,588 --> 01:07:57,859 "Everything's going to be alright, it's not the end of the world, 881 01:07:57,859 --> 01:08:00,940 and we're doing the best that we can..." 882 01:08:00,940 --> 01:08:04,709 But I don't think you can say that to us anymore... 883 01:08:04,708 --> 01:08:08,578 Are we even on your list of priorities? 884 01:08:08,579 --> 01:08:09,849 My dad always says 885 01:08:09,849 --> 01:08:14,099 "You are what you do, not what you say." 886 01:08:14,099 --> 01:08:18,960 Well, what you do makes me cry at night. 887 01:08:18,960 --> 01:08:21,408 You grown-ups say you love us. 888 01:08:21,408 --> 01:08:26,518 But I challenge you, please, make your actions reflect your words. 889 01:08:26,518 --> 01:08:29,058 Thank you.