0:00:09.510,0:00:15.733
Last Chance Films

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In association with

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Event Horizon Productions

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Presents

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ARCTIC DEATH SPIRAL[br]AND THE METHANE TIME BOMB

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Emergency Broadcast System

0:00:49.054,0:00:51.159
We interrupt our programming.

0:00:51.319,0:00:54.800
THIS IS A NATIONAL EMERGENCY.[br]Important details will follow.

0:00:54.969,0:00:58.399
The emergency alert "system" has been activated.

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Ladies and gentleman.

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The very word secrecy is repugnant,[br]in a free and open society.

0:01:15.700,0:01:17.982
We decided long ago,

0:01:18.132,0:01:23.474
that the dangers of excessive and unwarranted[br]concealment of pertinent facts

0:01:23.614,0:01:28.278
far outweigh the dangers[br]which are cited to justify it.

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But I am asking your help,

0:01:30.682,0:01:35.276
in the tremendous task[br]of informing and alerting the American people.

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For I have complete confidence, in[br]the response and dedication of our citizens.

0:01:40.130,0:01:42.618
Whenever they are fully informed.

0:01:42.928,0:01:48.339
Many rivers and the air in many cities,[br]remain badly polluted.

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And our citizens, suffer,[br]from breathing that air.

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We lived with conditions like these[br]for many many years.

0:02:00.028,0:02:04.108
But much that we once accepted as inevitable,

0:02:04.288,0:02:08.668
we now find absolutely intolerable.

0:02:08.907,0:02:11.245
Each of us all across this great land

0:02:11.355,0:02:15.542
has a stake in maintaining[br]and improving environmental quality,

0:02:15.712,0:02:19.570
clean air and clean waters,[br]the wise use of our lands,

0:02:19.710,0:02:24.740
the protection of wildlife and [br]natural beauty, parks for all to enjoy.

0:02:24.930,0:02:28.339
These are part of the birthright of every American.

0:02:28.499,0:02:33.480
To guarantee that birthright,[br]we must act, and act decisively.

0:02:33.669,0:02:36.419
It is literally now, or never.

0:02:36.869,0:02:41.039
Our program will emphasize conservation.

0:02:41.229,0:02:45.159
The amount of energy being wasted,[br]which could be saved,

0:02:45.320,0:02:51.140
is greater than the total energy[br]that we are importing from foreign countries.

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We will also stress development[br]of our rich coal reserves.

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In an environmentally sound way.

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Now it seems to me that if, we would concentrate[br]on resolving the problems,

0:03:03.199,0:03:06.552
uh... of the automobile, the combustion engine,

0:03:06.732,0:03:09.965
thee, the pollution factor[br]and we've gone a long way in that,

0:03:10.345,0:03:14.189
I think of myself as an environmentalist.[br]I uh...

0:03:14.189,0:03:18.769
I don't wanna see all this beauty[br]around us wiped out and destroyed.

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We all know that human activities[br]are changing the atmosphere

0:03:23.930,0:03:28.580
in unexpected, and in unprecedented ways.

0:03:28.919,0:03:34.899
I recommend that we adopt a BTU tax[br]on the heat content of energy,

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as the best way to provide us[br]with revenue to lower the deficit,

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because it also combats pollution,[br]promotes energy efficiency,

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promotes the independence[br]economically of this country,

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as well as helping to reduce the debt.

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And it is environmentally responsible.[br]It will help us in the future,

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as well as in the present with the deficit.

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The United States is committed[br]to strengthening our energy security

0:03:59.150,0:04:01.370
and confronting global climate change.

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And the best way to meet these goals is for[br]America to continue leading the way

0:04:05.280,0:04:09.700
toward the development of cleaner, [br]and more energy efficient technology.

0:04:09.850,0:04:12.119
We're gonna leave this planet...

0:04:12.479,0:04:16.770
At least as good as the, planet we inherited,[br]from our parents

0:04:16.950,0:04:20.880
but, we've got... we've got a[br]bigger problem with climate change.

0:04:21.020,0:04:24.280
We sent, we sent a billion dollars to foreign nations,

0:04:24.450,0:04:27.629
many of them hostile, and in the...[br]because of our addiction to oil,

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and in the bargain[br]we're melting the polar ice caps.

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Changing the weather patterns[br]all around the globe...

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The science is clear that man-made emissions[br]of air pollution and global warming gases

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are changing our atmosphere.[br]- Anthropogenic global warming is still an issue

0:04:42.990,0:04:45.590
that the scientists are still debating[br]and you know it and I know it.

0:04:45.649,0:04:48.700
The debate on the causes of Climate Change[br]are far from settled.

0:04:48.830,0:04:51.540
Well the climate's always changing.[br]That's not the fundamental question.

0:04:51.659,0:04:55.619
The fundamental question is whether man-made[br]activity, is the, is what's contributing most...

0:04:55.739,0:05:00.279
I think CO2 Is a problem, and therefore[br]I don't think it needs to be regulated.

0:05:00.409,0:05:03.060
We all breathe CO2, climate changes,

0:05:03.240,0:05:08.910
but there's no evidence at all that it's man-made[br]CO2 that causes the climate to change.

0:05:09.079,0:05:14.299
The idea of human induced global climate change is...

0:05:14.510,0:05:17.960
one of the greatest hoaxes perpetrated

0:05:18.089,0:05:20.979
out of the scientific community.[br]It is a hoax.

0:05:21.159,0:05:25.139
I'm only concerned about the,[br]incredible frenzy and hype

0:05:25.279,0:05:27.289
for something that's a total myth.

0:05:27.430,0:05:32.000
It's AMAZING to me how aaah,[br]upset so many people are...

0:05:32.180,0:05:37.300
The existence of all these billions of people[br]on earth, have all influenced the climate of earth.

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but NONE of it, is of significance, uhh...[br]and thank goodness,

0:05:43.040,0:05:45.148
things are doing just fine.

0:05:45.358,0:05:50.039
The question is the degree to which man influences[br]the climate and whether actually we can...

0:05:50.249,0:05:53.540
...this is anything we should worry about[br]or whether we should be...

0:05:53.700,0:05:56.990
bombing the global economy into the [br]dark ages to try and stop it.

0:05:57.160,0:06:00.283
Ya know, the greatest hoax[br]I think has been around,

0:06:00.453,0:06:03.136
in many many years,[br]if not hundreds of years

0:06:03.266,0:06:06.530
has been this hoax on the environment[br]and global warming.

0:06:06.669,0:06:08.709
You notice they don't call it global warming[br]anymore.

0:06:08.709,0:06:10.000
No no no. It's because it's getting cooler!

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It's "Weather Control".

0:06:10.790,0:06:14.540
Yeah! It's getting cooler, you can't call[br]it global warming anymore.

0:06:14.540,0:06:17.650
So what we need, what the world needs is more[br]fossil fuels.

0:06:17.649,0:06:22.579
The evidence we have, is not just that fossil[br]fuels aren't ruining our planet.

0:06:22.579,0:06:23.918
They're making it much better...

0:06:23.918,0:06:26.329
Climate related deaths are going down.

0:06:26.329,0:06:29.519
And, so, what we need is many many [br]more fossil fuels.

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So that people can eat.[br]And they can have food.

0:06:32.579,0:06:35.979
Through the years of high school, [br]"Aqua Net" hair spray use have done

0:06:35.979,0:06:39.520
more damage to the ozone[br]than any global warming scam has.

0:06:39.520,0:06:41.020
Aqua. I remember Aqua Net.

0:06:41.020,0:06:42.489
Aqua Net.

0:06:42.489,0:06:43.418
(Laughter)[br]Every every, every.

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I remember Brill creme.

0:06:45.010,0:06:47.040
But I don't think that had anything to do[br]with the climate change.

0:06:47.029,0:06:49.115
"A little dab'll do ya" Remember that?[br]That's it!

0:06:49.115,0:06:52.800
There´s more![br]The CO2 can also go...

0:06:52.800,0:06:56.710
(Crazy Gestures & Comic Sounds)

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At times when CO2 was rich in the atmosphere,

0:07:00.899,0:07:06.859
there was... greater growth of farms, vineyards[br]and so forth.

0:07:06.860,0:07:10.139
Uh, I guess in England,[br]there was a time when

0:07:10.139,0:07:14.449
growth of vineyards was so great[br]there was this wine all over the place and...

0:07:15.560,0:07:19.839
But I'm still open to the possibility. So[br]if there's anyone from Exxon-Mobile here...

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I've got a bank account and routing number[br]available for you. (Laughter)

0:07:25.240,0:07:27.519
One could argue from an economic point-of-view...

0:07:27.519,0:07:32.300
We should be burning fossil-fuels like "Gangbusters"[br]to generate as much wealth as we can.

0:07:32.300,0:07:37.899
Divert some of that into alternative energy research[br]and we might get to those alternative energies

0:07:37.899,0:07:40.549
faster, than if we...[br]starve poor people

0:07:40.549,0:07:45.709
and ruin the world's economies,[br]and reduce CO2 emissions.

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(Applause)

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Now, as we agreed, you owe me two beers.

0:07:50.116,0:07:51.633
(Laughter)

0:07:51.633,0:07:59.180
"Scientific American" editorialized on the[br]escalating ugliness of climate denier tactics and rhetoric.

0:07:59.180,0:08:03.490
The editors wondered if we are a people[br]increasingly estranged from critical thinking,

0:08:03.490,0:08:07.989
divorced from logic,[br]alienated from objective truth.

0:11:59.488,0:12:02.048
Now to the big headline from [br]"Climate Scientists" tonight.

0:12:02.148,0:12:05.116
The UN International Panel on Climate Change[br]

0:12:05.216,0:12:09.857
says we are hurdling toward the day when [br]Climate Change could be irreversible,

0:12:09.967,0:12:12.778
with catastrophic consequences they say.

0:12:12.888,0:12:16.419
It's only going to get worse if we don't take[br]drastic measures.

0:12:16.559,0:12:21.020
We've seen an increasing number of regions[br]over the decades, starting to lose ice,

0:12:21.140,0:12:23.799
but this is the first time we've seen it[br]ALMOST globally.

0:12:23.900,0:12:26.109
Most ominously, the report says

0:12:26.249,0:12:29.689
we are in REAL danger of[br]exceeding our carbon limit of one-trillion tons.

0:12:29.799,0:12:33.840
Scientists say that would warm the earth more[br]than three and a half degrees Fahrenheit,

0:12:33.940,0:12:37.119
making the impacts of climate change[br]MUCH more dangerous...

0:12:37.249,0:12:40.989
And that's the worry.[br]Many of the worlds cities are in the crosshairs.

0:12:41.090,0:12:43.410
Most of the people around the world [br]live in coastal areas,

0:12:43.530,0:12:46.509
it's where most of your major cities are [br]because that's where ports are.

0:12:46.589,0:12:48.199
And they are at sea level.

0:12:48.269,0:12:52.720
So even small changes in sea level rise can[br]displace millions of people.

0:12:52.800,0:12:58.310
Scientists fly over a giant chunk of Antarctic[br]ice as it cracks and collapses.

0:12:58.640,0:13:02.660
The chunk is enormous.[br]About seven times the size of Manhattan

0:13:02.780,0:13:04.980
160 Square Miles.

0:13:05.080,0:13:07.099
It was part of the Wilkins Ice shelf.

0:13:07.199,0:13:12.532
The biggest on Antarctica yet, scientists[br]say to fall victim to Global Warming.

0:13:12.665,0:13:15.309
Watching Wilkins ice shelf disappear at the moment,

0:13:15.389,0:13:18.699
we learn a lot more about [br]how Ice responds to climate change.

0:13:18.829,0:13:22.459
The Ice is just a small fraction of the[br]Antarctic ice sheet.

0:13:22.549,0:13:25.449
But it broke off well before scientists predicted.

0:13:25.560,0:13:30.290
A sign they said that Climate Change may be[br]happening faster than expected.

0:13:30.390,0:13:32.770
One expert told us last year:

0:13:32.909,0:13:39.309
"I think what we, what we do know is that[br]ice, uhh, uh, is probably our best sensor,

0:13:39.480,0:13:42.480
of these large scale changes taking place.[br]

0:13:42.580,0:13:46.249
And in many ways I think we're in[br]unchartered territory."

0:13:46.709,0:13:51.619
Ice plays a vital role in cooling the Earth's[br]temperature and regulating sea levels.

0:13:51.789,0:13:57.228
As it´s lost, the planet gets warmer, [br]sea levels rise and more ice is threatened.

0:13:57.338,0:13:59.728
A vicious environmental circle.

0:13:59.838,0:14:03.799
There are glaciologists now[br]who are getting very worried.

0:14:03.929,0:14:08.059
But they haven't really come out [br]and said what they think.

0:14:08.219,0:14:11.772
Take a good look at it, [br]because it won't be there for long.

0:14:11.922,0:14:14.345
It's cracking and it's breaking up.

0:14:14.485,0:14:17.649
And it's only one of dozens[br]of Antarctic ice shelves

0:14:17.769,0:14:20.738
collapsing faster than anyone predicted.

0:14:20.848,0:14:25.269
I would say the vast majority of we we're[br]looking at back there is broken up this year.

0:14:25.410,0:14:27.649
It was a cool summer right? Chicago, New York,

0:14:27.769,0:14:30.300
places like that, so. [br]How could it be Global Warming?

0:14:30.410,0:14:32.499
This is how.[br]Look at the context.

0:14:32.619,0:14:35.889
These blue dots over North America represent[br]below average temperatures

0:14:36.019,0:14:39.709
for the Summer... June, July, August.[br]What we call "Climate Logical Summer".

0:14:39.839,0:14:44.340
But look at the context. They're lost in a sea of red dots across much of the rest of the globe.

0:14:44.469,0:14:46.938
Just a couple other blue dots here and there.

0:14:47.059,0:14:49.790
Those red dots are above-average temperatures.

0:14:49.910,0:14:54.099
What that translates to in terms of a ranking[br]for this summer and for August

0:14:54.229,0:14:58.979
globally, second warmest on record. Period of record going back a little more than a century.

0:14:59.139,0:15:02.279
June through August globally.[br]The third warmest on record.

0:15:02.420,0:15:06.230
The oceans which had cooled for a couple years[br]now recovered with a vengeance.

0:15:06.389,0:15:11.129
August the warmest on record. June through August also the warmest on record.

0:15:11.608,0:15:16.169
Now, if the scientists are anywhere near correct,

0:15:16.340,0:15:20.689
then this is the greatest challenge[br]facing humanity today.

0:15:20.849,0:15:24.449
It is the greatest challenge[br]humanity has ever faced,

0:15:24.588,0:15:27.399
and probably WILL ever face.

0:15:27.530,0:15:30.550
If someone asks me,[br]if the climate system were changing.

0:15:30.710,0:15:33.249
I would say, look at the data.

0:15:35.419,0:15:40.528
The Arctic is, is experiencing, uh.. [br]I would say a crisis.

0:15:42.288,0:15:46.939
The meltdown is changing long held beliefs[br]about the Arctic and it's weather patterns.

0:15:47.089,0:15:50.619
As well as being blamed for[br]affecting conditions around the globe

0:15:50.779,0:15:54.109
and triggering a rise in global sea levels.

0:15:59.330,0:16:02.050
From all these collective studies of the whole[br]Arctic region,

0:16:02.180,0:16:06.170
you can see that it's warming much faster[br]than the rest of the planet.

0:16:06.360,0:16:09.209
In 2012, we had the new record set

0:16:09.339,0:16:12.458
in terms of melting [br]over the Greenland ice sheet.

0:16:14.728,0:16:17.149
But here, amid this snow and ice

0:16:17.280,0:16:20.950
It's hard to believe that the ice sheet is[br]melting as fast as scientists say.

0:16:21.089,0:16:22.400
But it is.

0:16:22.580,0:16:27.470
Scientists say, we are watching the polar[br]regions melt right before our eyes.

0:16:28.640,0:16:31.929
So you can tell, there's a stream, here.

0:16:32.099,0:16:36.389
And then there's a bunch of flow [br]coming down on this right side.

0:16:37.809,0:16:43.799
Interpreting the info that comes from satellites[br]called "The Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment".

0:16:43.969,0:16:46.948
In science circles, it's called "GRACE".

0:16:47.088,0:16:50.918
"GRACE" can detect the most subtle minute[br]changes in land ice,

0:16:51.048,0:16:53.988
down to the width of a human hair.

0:17:09.989,0:17:13.039
The faster speeds that we're seeing uhh...

0:17:13.179,0:17:15.968
In Greenland are not going to slow down.

0:17:16.108,0:17:18.689
That's not the way, uh, ice sheets behave.

0:17:52.489,0:17:56.239
Ooohohohooooo![br]Aaaaaah!

0:17:56.439,0:18:00.649
Ouch! Oh my God!

0:18:01.549,0:18:05.256
"Here comes the water...

0:18:05.996,0:18:08.503
Uh ohoo."

0:18:12.413,0:18:14.430
"Look at that."

0:18:18.900,0:18:22.033
"ohoo, ohoo..."

0:18:29.943,0:18:32.646
Woooooow!

0:18:38.356,0:18:41.290
So how big, was this calving event that we[br]just looked at?

0:18:41.440,0:18:45.990
We'll resort to some illustrations again to[br]give you a sense of scale.

0:18:48.880,0:18:52.990
It's as if the entire lower tip of Manhattan[br]broke off.

0:18:53.129,0:18:56.219
Except that...[br]the thickness, the height of it

0:18:56.380,0:19:01.190
Is equivalent to buildings that are two and[br]a half or three times higher than they are.

0:19:15.759,0:19:20.829
That's a magical, miraculous[br]horrible, scary thing

0:19:21.460,0:19:26.180
I don't know that anybody's really seen the[br]miracle and horror of that.

0:19:28.679,0:19:34.039
It took a hundred years for it to retreat[br]eight miles, from 1900 to 2000.

0:19:34.259,0:19:37.800
From 2000 to 2010, it retreated nine miles.

0:19:37.950,0:19:42.900
So in ten years, it retreated more than it[br]had in the previous one-hundred.

0:19:47.000,0:19:50.509
First of all, we're going to look at the

0:19:50.969,0:19:56.359
runaway behavior, that is actually happening,[br]to the Arctic system.

0:19:56.819,0:19:59.109
Going almost exponential.

0:19:59.269,0:20:04.390
We saw the rate of change of ice area, accelerating.

0:20:04.590,0:20:08.350
We saw the change in ice mass, or thickness

0:20:08.490,0:20:14.530
also accelerating and moving towards zero,[br]over the next two or three years.

0:20:15.290,0:20:17.270
And taken all together,

0:20:17.340,0:20:24.329
we have the unmistakable footprint of a system[br]in, what we call, self-amplification

0:20:24.439,0:20:26.709
or, "Runaway Behavior".

0:20:26.870,0:20:29.790
Uhh, you may remember that in 2007, [br]there was a, uh,

0:20:29.930,0:20:32.180
a big study that came out [br]from this group called

0:20:32.330,0:20:35.118
"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change".

0:20:35.248,0:20:42.518
And, they looked at computer models of how[br]rapidly Arctic ice would go away.

0:20:42.750,0:20:47.908
And, as of early 2007,[br]this is what they were telling us.

0:20:48.058,0:20:49.830
That, aahm...

0:20:49.970,0:20:56.130
We would see, gradual drop in Arctic... ice minimum.

0:20:56.410,0:21:01.770
going down to where we probably still have[br]a fair amount of ice left in the year 2100.

0:21:01.920,0:21:04.630
Worst case, maybe by 2070,

0:21:04.819,0:21:10.689
we would see open water, in the Arctic, [br]in the Summertime.

0:21:11.669,0:21:13.979
That very same year,

0:21:14.989,0:21:22.559
we saw, in the actual observations, a[br]huge drop in the Arctic ice.

0:21:22.910,0:21:26.710
And, that drop has continued so that in 2012,

0:21:26.870,0:21:28.680
this is now where we are.

0:21:28.820,0:21:34.309
So we're something like fifty years ahead[br]of the worst case scenarios,

0:21:34.479,0:21:38.819
that the scientists were giving us [br]just five years ago with Arctic Ice.

0:21:39.609,0:21:46.538
I'm actually in agreement with many climate[br]change deniers, in that the IPCC is wrong.

0:21:46.770,0:21:50.849
But I think, they're actually wrong, because[br]they're too conservative.

0:21:51.009,0:21:54.630
And they haven't really been telling the story[br]of what really could happen...

0:21:54.779,0:21:57.789
Can you summarize the effect[br]of an ice-free Arctic on the world.

0:21:57.970,0:22:01.669
Yes, the effect of an ice-free Arctic on the[br]world is a very large one,

0:22:01.889,0:22:05.049
because it goes way beyond the Arctic itself.

0:22:05.238,0:22:07.999
Because once thee sea ice has disappeared,

0:22:08.140,0:22:12.980
firstly, that produces a decrease[br]in the global albedo,

0:22:13.140,0:22:16.630
the amount of radiation reflected by the earth.

0:22:16.790,0:22:22.030
And has a knock-on effect in the sense that[br]the warmer air masses in the Arctic in summer,

0:22:22.210,0:22:24.610
cause a retreat of the snowline,

0:22:24.749,0:22:30.309
and the snow-line decrease has just as big[br]an effect on the albedo as the sea ice decrease has.

0:22:30.549,0:22:35.520
So as global albedo change, which affects[br]thee temperature of thee entire planet,

0:22:35.670,0:22:37.430
it warms it all up.

0:22:37.598,0:22:41.029
Uh, and then, there's the fact[br]that as the sea ice retreats

0:22:41.179,0:22:46.759
it allows the water masses around[br]the shelves of the Arctic to warm up.

0:22:46.929,0:22:52.789
And that warms up the seabed and releases[br]more Methane from the sub-sea permafrost

0:22:52.909,0:22:55.180
which is melting away.

0:22:55.320,0:22:59.798
And, that methane itself[br]is a very very powerful greenhouse gas.

0:22:59.978,0:23:04.848
So we're having a methane kick, uh,[br]coming in from the retreat of the sea ice,

0:23:05.018,0:23:09.980
which again, is a global effect rather than[br]simply an Arctic effect.

0:23:10.580,0:23:13.088
When the IPCC is uh...

0:23:13.298,0:23:15.899
It's not a whole load of people agreeing.

0:23:16.049,0:23:19.740
It's a load of people saying, oh, it's this,[br]it's this, it's this.

0:23:19.880,0:23:24.530
It's just that, nearly, everybody thinks that[br]we are warming the planet,

0:23:24.720,0:23:27.940
they, disagree about how fast it'll happen.

0:23:28.120,0:23:33.370
They disagree about whether negative or positive[br]feedbacks are going to be more important.

0:23:33.689,0:23:37.819
This is one of the more conservative scientific[br]bodies on the planet. They work by consensus,

0:23:38.049,0:23:40.658
and, after the scientists reach consensus...

0:23:40.788,0:23:44.159
they then, vet they're report through the[br]political process.

0:23:44.329,0:23:48.279
So politicians have to sign off on the IPCC's[br]assessment before it's released.

0:23:48.460,0:23:51.840
And they conclude that, that we've reached[br]"Runaway",

0:23:52.159,0:23:54.619
in the absence of Geo-engineering.

0:23:55.099,0:23:57.248
And, this is not in the model.

0:23:57.388,0:24:00.058
The models don't show this happening.[br]This IS happening.

0:24:00.209,0:24:06.278
So what happens when we update the models,[br]so that it does reflect that the Arctic is melting?

0:24:07.208,0:24:09.259
So we're seeing effects.

0:24:09.439,0:24:13.519
And, one of thee primary effects, that, uh...

0:24:14.499,0:24:18.729
grabs most peoples attention is[br]what's happening with the Arctic sea ice,

0:24:18.890,0:24:24.150
the ice that's floating on the Arctic ocean,[br]that covers usually most of the Arctic Ocean.

0:24:24.330,0:24:32.040
Last year 2012 was the record low as lowest,[br]Arctic summer ice that we have seen

0:24:32.140,0:24:34.790
ever since we've been observing it.

0:24:34.959,0:24:37.990
Whereas the rest of the globe has cooled,[br]since 1997,

0:24:38.150,0:24:44.329
temperature in the Arctic has started to increase [br]and increase, increasingly rapidly.

0:24:44.449,0:24:47.538
The hotter it gets, the faster it gets hotter.

0:24:47.708,0:24:53.830
2007 alone, in one year, it melted more in[br]the previous year

0:24:53.970,0:24:57.990
by an area equal to [br]three times the size of California.

0:24:58.390,0:25:02.420
And it will be all gone, in five or ten years.

0:25:02.630,0:25:08.250
It's pretty clear from the death spiral,[br]that's the way in which the volumes of ice

0:25:08.399,0:25:12.529
in the summer are zeroing in towards[br]uh, towards zero,

0:25:12.699,0:25:17.089
that the ice can't last more[br]than a couple more years.

0:25:19.510,0:25:25.640
There's no way... that ice mass,[br]of the end of September,

0:25:25.920,0:25:31.520
can continue going round this circle, [br]for the next five decades.

0:25:32.109,0:25:36.269
It's moving very rapidly[br]into the zero point in the center.

0:25:36.869,0:25:40.620
It's been decreasing for several decades.

0:25:40.790,0:25:43.839
In fact, way back into the nineteen-sixties[br]and seventies,

0:25:44.019,0:25:49.680
we have a trend pattern of decreasing area of sea ice,[br]particularly at it's minimum.

0:25:49.850,0:25:55.009
and the minimum sea ice occurs in September[br]at the end of the summer warming.

0:25:55.458,0:25:59.940
But, do have a look at the last few years,[br]from 2007 onwards.

0:26:00.120,0:26:05.019
The data points have been pulling way down[br]below the straight line.

0:26:05.769,0:26:11.259
It becomes more and more obvious that straight[br]line representations are no longer

0:26:11.449,0:26:17.140
the appropriate statistical tool for demonstrating what is[br]going on in the Arctic.

0:26:17.360,0:26:24.396
Then we see it looks like the end of the[br]Arctic sea ice area

0:26:24.866,0:26:28.362
in September, by about 2015.

0:26:28.532,0:26:33.080
So we're seeing a temperature rise, this is[br]the NASA temperature graph,

0:26:33.219,0:26:38.089
going back to 1880 when we feel[br]we have good global coverage with instruments.

0:26:38.229,0:26:40.710
We can take it back much further.

0:26:40.880,0:26:45.049
In fact, a very significant paper came out,[br]just this past Spring,

0:26:45.239,0:26:51.050
which looked at a number of different... [br]temperature Proxies, as we call them,

0:26:51.210,0:26:57.119
like tree rings and corals [br]and stalactites in caves and things like that.

0:26:57.279,0:27:00.619
And we pushed back the temperature record[br]eleven-thousand years...

0:27:00.788,0:27:02.749
And what you've got is this, uhn...[br]

0:27:02.880,0:27:05.650
you've got us coming out [br]of the ice age, back here,

0:27:05.790,0:27:11.260
and then we've got a slow, slow, slow gradual,[br]gradual decline, until the last century.

0:27:11.509,0:27:13.959
And then, this is us.[br]Here.

0:27:14.300,0:27:19.179
So, we're... we're... we're pretty clear that,[br]that, uhh...

0:27:19.669,0:27:22.619
something's changed [br]in the last two-hundred years

0:27:22.769,0:27:27.288
and the only thing that we've been able to track down[br]that really answers it is the... uhn

0:27:28.728,0:27:32.089
greenhouse gases [br]that human beings have been putting out.

0:27:32.810,0:27:39.620
What's going on in the Arctic area at the[br]moment is, probably, the fastest moving response,

0:27:39.850,0:27:44.340
to Global Warming and Climate Change [br]anywhere on the planet.

0:27:46.830,0:27:52.250
In 1859, the English physicist John Tyndall,[br]using equipment of his own design,

0:27:52.480,0:27:58.000
showed that certain gases in the atmosphere blocked[br]and absorbed long wave or heat radiation.

0:27:58.000,0:28:02.379
Four decades later, Svante Arrhenius, [br]with thousands of manual calculations,

0:28:02.379,0:28:10.110
made an estimate of the global warming power of CO2,[br]that was very close to today's best models.

0:28:10.109,0:28:14.270
In the 1950's, american Charles Keeling[br]began to measure accurately

0:28:14.308,0:28:17.558
the steady increase of CO2 in the atmosphere.

0:28:17.558,0:28:23.190
Spectrographic analysis soon showed that the[br]new carbon was, without a doubt, man-made.

0:28:23.190,0:28:24.929
So it's a rare gas.

0:28:24.929,0:28:27.890
The atmosphere is almost all, Nitrogen and[br]Oxygen.

0:28:27.890,0:28:32.059
But you see here that, [br]out of a million molecules of air in 1958,

0:28:32.058,0:28:36.940
about 314 of them would be [br]carbon dioxide molecules.

0:28:36.940,0:28:42.570
And you see the graph there at the lower left,[br]tracing the first few years.

0:28:42.569,0:28:45.879
So, you can see a lot of things on this graph[br]just, right away.

0:28:45.880,0:28:48.870
First of all, it's increasing with time.

0:28:48.869,0:28:52.289
And here's what the Keeling curve,[br]which is the popular name for this,

0:28:52.289,0:28:53.730
[br]looks like today.

0:28:53.730,0:28:56.980
And you can see that what was 314 then,[br]

0:28:56.980,0:29:01.759
is now 395 or so, [br]pushing 400 today.

0:29:01.759,0:29:05.179
That's a remarkable story right there.

0:29:05.179,0:29:08.820
Because that increase is something like 25%.

0:29:08.819,0:29:14.528
Mankind is changing the chemical composition[br]of the atmosphere in important ways.

0:29:14.528,0:29:18.190
And, the greenhouse effect had been understood[br]for a long time.

0:29:18.190,0:29:25.190
The fact that Carbon Dioxide, and other molecules[br]trap infrared energy, they trap heat essentially,

0:29:25.339,0:29:29.449
had been known to experimental physicists[br]in the middle 1800's.

0:29:29.449,0:29:32.750
John Tyndall, in London,[br]put Carbon Dioxide in a tube

0:29:32.750,0:29:38.240
and measured how it could absorb[br]infrared energy, which he could shine on it.

0:29:38.240,0:29:46.270
The first attempts to understand the implications[br]of this for climate date back to the 1890's.

0:29:46.270,0:29:49.499
So, in a sense, the science was there,

0:29:49.958,0:29:54.111
connecting Carbon Dioxide amounts of the atmosphere[br]to Climate Change

0:29:54.111,0:29:58.924
until we had the measurements[br]showing that the CO2 was actually increasing

0:29:58.924,0:30:02.419
and increasing much more quickly than had[br]been foreseen in the nineteen century.

0:30:02.419,0:30:06.900
There were more people using more coal and[br]oil and natural gas,

0:30:06.900,0:30:11.859
and the rapidity of the growth of CO2 was[br]a surprise to everyone.

0:30:12.619,0:30:17.339
Popular mechanics magazine [br]wrote about this in 1953.

0:30:17.339,0:30:24.339
The products of research were showing us that[br]if we continue to add Carbon Dioxide to the atmosphere,

0:30:24.359,0:30:28.158
by burning fossil fuels,[br]we're going to see a rise in temperature

0:30:28.278,0:30:34.288
This was the work of Doctor Gilbert Plas, who[br]published a very significant paper on this.

0:30:34.288,0:30:41.288
This had been an issue that had been kicked[br]around for the previous hundred years or so,

0:30:41.538,0:30:49.358
but, it was this research that really kind[br]of nailed it in so far as making the science clear.

0:30:50.020,0:30:55.520
Yet it's taken us this long to really even[br]begin to get through to the public dialogue

0:30:55.519,0:30:57.069
on how important this is.

0:30:57.069,0:31:02.509
The amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere[br]is what matters to the climate.

0:31:02.509,0:31:07.418
Climate just reacts to how many and what kinds[br]of heat trapping gases are there.

0:31:07.419,0:31:10.510
The more there are of an important gas, [br]like CO2

0:31:10.510,0:31:13.389
which is by far the most important man-made gas,

0:31:13.390,0:31:14.520
the warmer it gets.

0:31:14.519,0:31:18.109
Now, on this graph is temperature and Carbon[br]Dioxide.

0:31:18.109,0:31:21.298
Let's look at the black line first.[br]That's Carbon Dioxide.

0:31:21.298,0:31:23.409
1880 on the left,[br]the present on the right,

0:31:23.490,0:31:28.519
and so, we know that it was rising gradually[br]before Keelings measurements began.

0:31:28.519,0:31:33.009
And that, in the times before the 1800's,

0:31:33.009,0:31:36.980
when human activities presumably had no strong[br]effect on climate,

0:31:36.980,0:31:42.210
It was near a value of 280[br]and these same units of molecules per million molecules.

0:31:42.210,0:31:48.490
So CO2 has been rising, but[br]in all the years before the 1930's,

0:31:48.490,0:31:51.048
you might say, every year [br]was below that average,

0:31:51.048,0:31:53.829
and in recent years, [br]every year's been above it.

0:31:53.829,0:31:58.839
Again, the natural variability is due to factors[br]like El Nino and the occasional strong Volcano,

0:31:58.839,0:32:02.099
which temporarily cools the climate [br]for a year or two.

0:32:02.099,0:32:07.480
And uh, so these things here are some of the[br]strongest El Nino's on record.

0:32:07.480,0:32:10.000
But that there's a warming now [br]and that this period is different

0:32:10.000,0:32:13.240
from this period,[br]isn't in doubt at all.

0:32:13.240,0:32:16.130
So the question that [br]people typically ask is...

0:32:16.130,0:32:18.699
How do we know this isn't just[br]some kind of a normal cycle?

0:32:18.699,0:32:21.859
OK. It's getting warmer but, [br]It's been warmer in the past.

0:32:21.859,0:32:24.089
It's been colder in the past.

0:32:24.089,0:32:26.959
How do we know this is[br]different from the past?

0:32:26.960,0:32:27.840
Well.

0:32:27.839,0:32:33.269
We can measure what's coming into and out[br]of the planet by satellite,

0:32:33.269,0:32:35.908
and the satellites do[br]a pretty good job of this.

0:32:35.909,0:32:41.559
We know, that, the planet is in energy imbalance.

0:32:41.558,0:32:48.130
We know that that energy imbalance is completely[br]consistent with the predictions

0:32:48.130,0:32:51.470
that have been made[br]about greenhouse gases.

0:32:51.470,0:32:54.339
And we know that[br]that's quite a big energy imbalance.

0:32:54.339,0:32:55.798
It's not small.

0:32:55.798,0:33:02.798
In fact, it's equal to about 400 thousand[br]Hiroshima nuclear bombs exploding everyday.

0:33:03.409,0:33:05.880
That's about four or five [br]every second or so.

0:33:05.880,0:33:11.110
That's how much energy is being trapped,[br]primarily in the ocean

0:33:11.110,0:33:14.990
because the ocean is [br]the biggest heat sink, by far.

0:33:14.990,0:33:20.690
So, natural sources are in balance between[br]emission and absorption.

0:33:20.690,0:33:23.970
The oceans are actually net absorbers but...

0:33:23.970,0:33:26.370
Human beings. It's one-way traffic.

0:33:26.369,0:33:30.019
So it's only us that can be causing the increase.

0:33:30.019,0:33:34.148
Everything else, even volcanoes,[br]is balanced by uptake.

0:33:34.148,0:33:37.599
So, it's only us,[br]that can be causing the increase.

0:33:37.599,0:33:41.089
From here you are in the early [br]nineteen hundreds til today.

0:33:41.089,0:33:44.479
Blue is cooler than average, and yellow and[br]orange are warmer than average

0:33:44.479,0:33:47.339
and you can see here,[br]it's still some blue areas and so on.

0:33:47.339,0:33:53.688
But starting in the 1970´s, you start to see[br]the yellow and orange colors predominating.

0:33:53.688,0:33:57.508
By the time this ends in 2010 or so,

0:33:57.508,0:34:01.119
you can see what the world looks like[br]today in this picture.

0:34:01.119,0:34:02.429
There's warming everywhere.

0:34:02.429,0:34:05.370
There's more warming over the continents [br]than over the oceans.

0:34:05.369,0:34:07.609
There's more warming in the North[br]than in the South.

0:34:07.609,0:34:09.690
And there's the strongest warming in the Arctic.

0:34:09.690,0:34:13.369
This is a Mercator projection so it exaggerates[br]the area of the Arctic.

0:34:13.369,0:34:16.460
But the warming is strongest in high Northern[br]latitudes.

0:34:16.460,0:34:19.688
And that's because of a number of feedbacks[br]that we think we understand

0:34:19.688,0:34:23.818
of which the most important is that, [br]when warming occurs in the far North,

0:34:23.818,0:34:26.119
the ice and snow melt ,[br]as we've seen.

0:34:26.119,0:34:31.277
And, the ice and snow having melted revealed[br]darker water and darker land that was under them,

0:34:31.940,0:34:34.789
which reflect less sunlight and therefore[br]absorb more sunlight.

0:34:34.789,0:34:39.228
So the chain of events is [br]Carbon Dioxide causes the warming,

0:34:39.228,0:34:40.777
the warming melts snow and ice,

0:34:40.777,0:34:44.277
the melted snow and ice make the surface darker,

0:34:44.277,0:34:46.829
the darker surface absorbs more sunlight,

0:34:46.829,0:34:48.829
and that adds to the warming.

0:34:48.829,0:34:51.649
The human trigger is now almost irrelevant.

0:34:51.648,0:34:54.748
The feedbacks have taken over.

0:34:54.748,0:34:57.298
The mirror that's at the top of the world[br]is gonna be gone.

0:34:57.298,0:35:01.579
It won't be gone in the wintertime but the[br]Sun's not shining on it in the wintertime.

0:35:01.579,0:35:03.640
So, it matters in the summertime.

0:35:03.639,0:35:10.400
One of the key effects that this has is that[br]when all of these Northern areas are covered

0:35:10.400,0:35:13.619
with white reflective snow and ice,

0:35:13.619,0:35:17.249
it bounces most of the Solar energy off,

0:35:17.248,0:35:19.838
bounces it back off into space.

0:35:19.838,0:35:22.419
But, when we are seeing[br]

0:35:22.419,0:35:27.368
more and more open water, dark soil [br]and dark surfaces,

0:35:27.369,0:35:29.749
then the solar energy [br]tends to get absorbed.

0:35:29.748,0:35:32.208
So instead of reflecting 90% of all the energy,

0:35:32.208,0:35:35.228
you're absorbing 90% of all the energy.

0:35:35.228,0:35:39.919
So, this is what scientists call:[br]"A Positive Feedback",

0:35:39.920,0:35:43.278
and they don't mean that it's good.

0:35:43.278,0:35:47.708
It's not a positive thing for us because,[br]it's more like a vicious cycle,

0:35:47.708,0:35:50.939
more heat equals less ice,[br]and less ice equals more heat

0:35:50.939,0:35:54.759
and it just sort of [br]continues on in a spiral.

0:35:54.759,0:35:56.909
And that's what we're seeing in the Arctic.

0:35:56.909,0:36:02.690
And that's why the Arctic is warming at about[br]twice the rate of the rest of the planet.

0:36:02.690,0:36:07.619
And that means that Sun's energy is being[br]absorbed into the tundra,

0:36:07.619,0:36:15.589
the frozen areas of the Northern continental[br]masses and into the open ocean where the ice was.

0:36:16.219,0:36:21.630
So that the whole system is now accelerating[br]and accelerating and accelerating

0:36:21.630,0:36:24.479
and the hotter it gets[br]the faster it gets hotter.

0:36:24.528,0:36:26.900
The faster it gets hotter,[br]the more water vapor.

0:36:26.900,0:36:29.209
The more water vapor, [br]the faster it gets hotter.

0:36:29.208,0:36:31.199
The faster it gets hotter, [br]the less ice.

0:36:31.199,0:36:35.009
The less ice, the less reflection[br]so the faster it gets hotter...

0:36:35.009,0:36:36.798
You begin to get the idea?

0:36:36.798,0:36:38.920
It has to be a downward curving,

0:36:38.920,0:36:42.979
what we call exponential decay.

0:36:42.978,0:36:49.379
And you project that line forward[br]as is done in this particular setting of the equations

0:36:49.380,0:36:52.588
and understanding of Arctic ice mass loss,

0:36:52.588,0:36:59.588
then, once again, it shows [br]zero ice floating on the Arctic ocean...

0:36:59.599,0:37:02.870
by the end of Summer... 2015.

0:37:03.309,0:37:11.259
Which confirms precisely, my own work[br]on the decay of Arctic ice area to the same date.

0:37:11.789,0:37:17.099
Mind you, at the same time, the thickness of the ice[br]has also been diminishing.

0:37:17.099,0:37:20.079
The ice in the Arctic now [br]is thinner than it used to be,

0:37:20.079,0:37:22.610
thus more vulnerable to melting.

0:37:22.949,0:37:25.528
And just to give you an example of what's[br]happening

0:37:25.528,0:37:28.059
just in this past season...

0:37:28.059,0:37:30.450
This is from March

0:37:30.449,0:37:33.760
March and April of 2013.

0:37:33.760,0:37:39.679
Looking at this area above Alaska.

0:37:39.679,0:37:44.690
We had a cyclone going on, up in this area,[br]that was moving, causing some torque on this ice

0:37:44.690,0:37:50.179
and the ice just started to fracture and[br]break up, in a manner that was very very unusual.

0:37:50.179,0:37:53.798
I talked to scientists at[br]the National Snow and Ice Data Center,

0:37:53.798,0:37:59.650
and they said: "What you're seeing here is happening[br]because this ice would've been maybe

0:37:59.650,0:38:04.349
twenty feet thick thirty years ago, [br]and now it's only three feet thick."

0:38:04.349,0:38:07.430
And so it´s getting pushed around[br]and broken up.

0:38:07.430,0:38:13.690
And much of this did in fact refreeze,[br]but it refroze in a manner that was much thinner,[br]

0:38:13.690,0:38:20.339
much more fragile, and it´s now being pushed around,[br]deformed much more easily

0:38:20.339,0:38:23.639
and melted much more quickly [br]then it would've been fifty years ago.

0:38:23.639,0:38:28.978
When our people think about Climate Change,[br]they think in 2100. 2100!

0:38:28.978,0:38:32.099
We might have two feet of more sea level.

0:38:32.099,0:38:34.320
Gee, well, I can kinda deal with that...

0:38:34.320,0:38:38.190
We're talking about 2010.[br]2020.

0:38:38.639,0:38:40.978
It's gonna be really serious impacts.

0:38:40.978,0:38:45.578
If any of these things happen[br]which could happen... anytime.

0:38:45.579,0:38:49.519
It's like playin Russian Roulette [br]with kind of a few bullets in the chamber.

0:38:49.518,0:38:52.028
As the temperature starts to increase [br]more quickly,

0:38:52.028,0:38:56.650
then other feedbacks are also[br]brought into play,

0:38:56.650,0:39:00.698
and more powerfully[br]then they had been previously.

0:39:03.028,0:39:07.199
The sixth consequence concerns[br]what's happening to the Greenland icecap.

0:39:08.689,0:39:13.749
Now, it sits there as a one-and-a-half mile[br]thick

0:39:14.889,0:39:19.139
layer of ice [br]across a large piece of land mass.

0:39:20.268,0:39:22.938
Once upon a time,[br]15 000 years ago,

0:39:22.938,0:39:28.768
we had great ice sheets, [br]covering our most populous zones

0:39:29.998,0:39:31.588
in the Western hemisphere.

0:39:31.588,0:39:39.148
Those ice sheets retreated, very rapidly when[br]the climate and the oceans switched.

0:39:39.179,0:39:46.869
And what we're getting here now is a rate[br]of retreat that, I believe, is unprecedented

0:39:46.998,0:39:49.929
in terms of the last ten-thousand years.

0:39:49.929,0:39:54.949
Earlier this month, the surface of the ice sheet[br]covering Greenland melted more widely

0:39:54.949,0:39:58.498
than has been seen in thirty-three years [br]of satellite imagery.

0:39:58.498,0:40:01.338
We got some reports that there was melt going[br]on around Greenland.

0:40:01.338,0:40:04.659
Literally, like so much water running off[br]that it was washing out bridges and things.

0:40:04.659,0:40:07.578
That there were runways that were on the snow[br]that were having problems.

0:40:07.579,0:40:09.609
You just had to be here,

0:40:09.608,0:40:16.248
this time last year, to watch this bridge,[br]completely wash-out.

0:40:16.248,0:40:21.399
The discharge of the river, at the point[br]was...

0:40:21.400,0:40:23.889
basically two-hundred times that of the Thames.

0:40:23.889,0:40:28.699
The effect is small, so far...

0:40:28.699,0:40:34.079
but, Greenland's mass loss has doubled over[br]the last decade.

0:40:34.079,0:40:39.690
And if that pattern of doubling continues[br]over coming decades,

0:40:39.690,0:40:45.029
then we're gonna have to rewrite some of the[br]predictions that we've made

0:40:45.029,0:40:48.259
about how rapidly [br]this is gonna happen.

0:40:48.259,0:40:52.989
The bed of the ice sheet and the interior[br]ice sheet is frozen to it's base.

0:40:52.989,0:40:54.478
And it's starting to slip.

0:40:54.478,0:40:59.679
This is the bedrock. OK?

0:40:59.679,0:41:01.588
And this is your ice.

0:41:01.588,0:41:06.139
And this is your water.

0:41:06.139,0:41:11.978
And that this water suddenly and violently[br]drains through this channel.

0:41:11.978,0:41:16.948
Then suddenly you have a change in direction[br]but it goes very fast.

0:41:16.949,0:41:19.349
We're focusing on this little lake over here,

0:41:19.349,0:41:25.009
you can see these mountain water lakes popping[br]up across the surface of the ice sheet

0:41:25.009,0:41:28.420
as the weather gets[br]warmer and warmer.

0:41:28.420,0:41:32.179
So, what you'll see here is this meanders along,[br]it meanders along

0:41:32.179,0:41:36.150
until it goes down,[br]into the ice, right there.

0:41:36.150,0:41:37.989
And as it goes down,

0:41:37.989,0:41:42.219
it's delivering all that heat[br]down into the deep levels of the ice.

0:41:42.219,0:41:45.659
So now the heat goes down here and,[br]just like a stick of butter,

0:41:45.659,0:41:48.409
the ice sheet begins to get soft.

0:41:48.409,0:41:52.689
It begins to move faster and that water goes[br]down to the bottom

0:41:52.689,0:41:55.778
and, because it's an incompressible fluid,

0:41:55.778,0:41:58.248
It will support, even a kilometer of ice.

0:41:58.248,0:42:03.948
It will lubricate even a huge volume of ice[br]and make it move faster over that rocky surface.

0:42:03.949,0:42:08.068
So that accelerates the process as well.

0:42:08.068,0:42:13.170
The water across the surface of this ice sheet[br]is rampant,

0:42:13.170,0:42:19.400
and it's causing untold damage to the base[br]of the ice sheet,

0:42:19.400,0:42:24.430
and it's doing that in deep interior regions[br]that never before,

0:42:24.429,0:42:30.948
not least in the last ten-thousand years,[br]have been susceptible to that warming.

0:42:30.949,0:42:32.809
That water input.

0:42:32.809,0:42:36.609
That water draining down into the ice [br]is relatively warm.

0:42:36.608,0:42:43.950
The average temperature of the ice sheet, at depth,[br]is several degrees below the freezing point,

0:42:44.119,0:42:48.659
whereas the water that's draining in is right[br]at the freezing point.

0:42:48.659,0:42:55.629
So this is relatively warm water that drains[br]in and it heats the ice sheet, internally.

0:42:55.630,0:42:59.789
Warmer ice deforms more easily than cold ice.

0:42:59.789,0:43:05.469
So, an increase in melt water draining in[br]to the ice sheet has a softening effect,

0:43:05.469,0:43:08.509
especially when the amount of melt water is[br]increasing.

0:43:08.509,0:43:11.599
You know, Greenland is 23 feet of sea level.

0:43:11.599,0:43:14.890
7.3 meters, if it all melts.

0:43:14.889,0:43:18.288
And the history is very clear.

0:43:18.289,0:43:21.019
When it was warm, there's no ice on Greenland.

0:43:21.018,0:43:23.899
When it's cold, there's lots of ice on Greenland.

0:43:23.900,0:43:28.118
And so it's very clear Greenland is very tightly[br]tied to temperature

0:43:28.118,0:43:30.889
and if it gets too hot[br]it goes away.

0:43:30.889,0:43:36.409
And too hot is not very many degrees above[br]where we are now...

0:43:36.409,0:43:38.788
And this is the Ilulissat glacier.

0:43:38.789,0:43:43.160
This is the calving front of Ilulissat glacier[br]that we flew along on the first day.

0:43:43.159,0:43:46.308
This is the fastest moving ice stream[br]in the world.

0:43:46.309,0:43:47.959
It's 400 feet high.

0:43:47.958,0:43:53.948
The water is coming down under the ice and[br]squirting out down here, below the water line,

0:43:53.949,0:43:55.748
like... a Jacuzzi.

0:43:55.749,0:43:59.090
And it's creating circulation down here

0:43:59.090,0:44:05.969
and it's drawing warm ocean water[br]in underneaththe the water line here.

0:44:05.969,0:44:10.329
And it makes it accelerate the calving off[br]of the giant glaciers.

0:44:10.329,0:44:14.109
And this whole bay here is just full of gigantic[br]glaciers.

0:44:14.109,0:44:16.589
As that movement accelerates...

0:44:16.588,0:44:20.588
the ice upstream begins [br]to crack and deform, like this,

0:44:20.588,0:44:26.078
and, you can see, as it cracks, that water begins[br]to collect in those cracks.

0:44:26.079,0:44:31.919
And that water begins to absorb more heat[br]and, because water is heavier than ice,

0:44:31.919,0:44:37.469
it actually begins to hydro fracture it's way, [br]down into the ice sheet.

0:44:37.469,0:44:40.659
accelerating the movement even further.

0:44:40.659,0:44:45.448
So what you're seeing is that,[br]at every stage,[br]

0:44:45.448,0:44:51.984
there is a different kind of a process that,[br]not only feeds on itself,

0:44:51.984,0:44:56.220
but feeds into all[br]the other processes in the cycle.

0:44:57.480,0:45:00.048
On the ice sheet, [br]if you wanna know what's happening,

0:45:00.048,0:45:03.529
you need to just follow the water [br]and see what it's telling you.

0:45:03.588,0:45:05.858
And this is the story that it's telling us.

0:45:05.858,0:45:10.218
This is why scientists [br]are starting to feel that

0:45:10.249,0:45:18.905
Greenland and ice sheets across the planet[br]have the capacity to move much faster

0:45:18.905,0:45:26.021
then what they have[br]during human experience.

0:45:27.051,0:45:34.499
So, the big concern is that we don't tip ourselves[br]into some kind of an event like that

0:45:34.630,0:45:40.899
where the ice sheets begin to move at a pace that[br]is really beyond human capacity to keep up with.

0:45:42.139,0:45:48.228
As we move to acceleratingly[br]increasing temperature change,

0:45:48.228,0:45:54.868
as the waters all around Greenland are no[br]longer covered with floating ice,

0:45:55.678,0:46:00.969
and as the temperature of those waters around[br]begins to increase,

0:46:00.969,0:46:06.368
so, of course the air over Greenland is hotter.

0:46:07.838,0:46:10.588
The waters around it are hotter.

0:46:11.598,0:46:14.458
The ice surface begins to melt,

0:46:15.578,0:46:17.449
right across the dome.

0:46:17.880,0:46:24.060
Well, last year in this place [br]where we actually flew into, Kangerlussuaq,

0:46:24.060,0:46:26.209
this is what the river looked like there.[br]

0:46:26.209,0:46:28.818
It was overflowing,[br]this bridge was washing out,

0:46:28.818,0:46:31.059
giant machinery was being swept away

0:46:31.059,0:46:38.448
because we were seeing melting that was happening[br]over the entire surface of the ice sheet.

0:46:41.829,0:46:46.789
They had never seen this kind of water flow[br]there in that river.

0:46:47.449,0:46:52.920
So. The consequences for the Greenland ice[br]cap are massive.

0:46:53.940,0:46:58.869
And as it melts, it adds fresh water to the[br]global ocean,

0:46:59.639,0:47:01.989
and starts to raise the sea level...

0:47:02.909,0:47:11.099
If it goes quickly then we can expect[br]2, 3, 5, 7 meters of sea level change...

0:47:11.509,0:47:13.558
right across the world,

0:47:13.559,0:47:16.099
to happen, on a decadal basis.

0:47:16.099,0:47:18.560
i.e., within 10 to 20 years.

0:47:19.579,0:47:24.269
That would be catastrophic for civilization,

0:47:24.268,0:47:30.658
many of whose urban centers would be below[br]sea level, in the new situation.

0:47:31.409,0:47:35.028
Actually, the Greenland ice sheet is de-glaciating.

0:47:35.028,0:47:36.958
It's retreating...

0:47:36.958,0:47:39.848
but it's retreat is dynamic.

0:47:39.849,0:47:47.559
It's drawing down the interior of the ice[br]sheet, faster than the models assume at present.

0:47:47.818,0:47:51.838
And hence, the ice sheet and it's interior[br]is accelerating,

0:47:51.838,0:47:55.198
and the melt of the margin is enhanced,

0:47:55.198,0:48:01.088
and I think that means that this ice[br]sheet is ... actively de-glaciating.

0:48:01.699,0:48:07.319
And that's... a pretty serious problem, [br]for sea level rise.

0:48:09.489,0:48:11.970
Let's move on now to the fourth consequence.

0:48:11.970,0:48:15.350
And that is the impact on the tundra.

0:48:16.719,0:48:21.378
Those land masses,[br]that border onto the Artic ocean,

0:48:22.048,0:48:26.249
now have a warmer, open sea coast,

0:48:26.969,0:48:32.339
and the warmer air and the warmer temperatures[br]are being fedback over the land mass.

0:48:32.998,0:48:38.799
And of course what that does is increase the[br]rate of melting of the tundra permafrost,

0:48:38.799,0:48:44.338
and we get this depth of permafrost melt,[br]which we call the cast,

0:48:44.338,0:48:46.789
increases year on year.

0:48:47.699,0:48:50.359
That also has consequences.

0:48:51.579,0:48:58.519
For instance, there's a lot of biological[br]material in the deep freeze of the tundra,

0:48:58.518,0:49:03.310
and as that thaws out, it begins to decay,[br]the microbes have a field day

0:49:03.310,0:49:08.679
and out comes more carbon dioxide[br]and more methane from the rotting vegetation.

0:49:09.659,0:49:12.688
So, methane is being released into the atmosphere...

0:49:12.688,0:49:19.018
not only from the ocean floor, but also, as[br]I said, from the melting of the tundra.

0:49:19.688,0:49:22.468
And the more methane there is in the atmosphere,

0:49:22.469,0:49:24.929
as this next slide shows,

0:49:24.929,0:49:28.769
the greater the greenhouse effect, [br]and methane is a very powerful greenhouse gas.

0:49:29.279,0:49:31.969
When the permafrost thaws,

0:49:32.220,0:49:36.919
the organic matter in the permafrost thaws as well[br]and begins to decay.

0:49:36.919,0:49:39.380
The microorganisms start to eat it.

0:49:39.380,0:49:43.528
If there's no oxygen,[br]the microorganisms make methane.

0:49:43.528,0:49:49.789
If there's oxygen,[br]the microorganisms make carbon dioxide.

0:49:50.869,0:49:54.129
Ahh, permafrost.[br]Right here.

0:49:54.569,0:49:57.560
Frozen dirt.

0:49:57.560,0:50:01.588
We found, as far as[br]the organic matter coming out of this hill slope,

0:50:01.588,0:50:03.859
is that it's much more bio-available,

0:50:03.859,0:50:08.269
meaning it's yummier for the microbes that[br]are decomposing it,

0:50:08.799,0:50:12.939
than carbon, or organic matter[br]near the surface today.

0:50:12.938,0:50:14.899
So that has climate implications.

0:50:14.900,0:50:17.969
Because that means that this organic matter[br]is processed quicker,

0:50:17.969,0:50:21.229
it's return to the atmosphere is[br]carbon dioxide and methane,

0:50:21.228,0:50:24.058
and can feed back on climate that way.

0:50:24.058,0:50:29.458
Sites like this where the permafrost is releasing[br]organic matter act as accelerators.

0:50:29.458,0:50:32.919
They speed up the process of human caused[br]climate change.

0:50:32.920,0:50:36.079
So it's uh, it's a large amplification of[br]what we're doing.

0:50:36.079,0:50:38.089
It feeds back on to our impact.

0:50:38.088,0:50:42.338
It's important to realize that the scale and[br]rate of change that we're talking about now

0:50:42.338,0:50:46.360
is several degrees, two to five degrees in[br]just a hundred years.

0:50:46.360,0:50:50.648
So this is much faster than has happened in[br]the last 50 million years.

0:50:50.648,0:50:55.209
We're talking about unprecedented climate change [br]and a very rapid abrupt response

0:50:55.209,0:50:57.670
from this eco-system.

0:50:57.670,0:51:01.379
There have been changes in the Arctic, in[br]the permafrost,

0:51:01.379,0:51:03.629
in terms of the temperature overtime,

0:51:03.630,0:51:07.059
not only in the shallow layers near the surface,

0:51:07.059,0:51:09.829
but at 10, 20 and 50 meter depths.

0:51:09.829,0:51:12.699
You're seeing changes that are even more rapid.

0:51:12.699,0:51:14.930
That indicates that not only is there heating[br]near the surface,

0:51:14.929,0:51:19.649
but that this heat [br]is being transported to depth, very efficiently.

0:51:21.950,0:51:26.188
The permafrost stores methane.

0:51:26.188,0:51:29.059
As Richard was talking about, [br]it's currently melting.

0:51:29.369,0:51:33.099
It's warmer up there. It's like, 5 degrees warmer[br]up in the Arctic than it is...

0:51:33.099,0:51:35.118
The average temperature of the world[br]is only up a degree

0:51:35.118,0:51:37.409
but in the Arctic it's up five degrees.

0:51:37.409,0:51:44.409
And it's releasing 50 million tons per year,[br]which is a billion tons of CO2.

0:51:44.518,0:51:46.428
And it's obviously rising.

0:51:46.428,0:51:49.689
If it all went, we'd basically all be dead.[br]I mean.

0:51:49.689,0:51:52.588
And, it's happening now.

0:51:52.588,0:51:55.028
And the problem here is it's accelerating.

0:51:55.028,0:51:59.728
Once it starts generating, through this process[br]or any of the other ones I talk about,

0:51:59.728,0:52:04.149
once those processes [br]generate more CO2 than we do,

0:52:04.149,0:52:08.629
it won't matter if we stopped completely,

0:52:08.629,0:52:10.088
it's gonna keep going.

0:52:10.088,0:52:12.018
These are positive feedback loops.

0:52:12.018,0:52:16.338
And by the way, it's not in the models.

0:52:24.088,0:52:31.528
The fifth implication of the Arctic dynamics[br]concerns the feedback of the methane release.

0:52:32.219,0:52:37.159
It is probably one of the most important[br]issues that we have to examine.

0:52:37.159,0:52:40.479
We will be in danger of destabilizing these[br]things called methane hydrates

0:52:40.479,0:52:43.739
which store a lot of methane[br]on the bottom of the ocean,

0:52:43.739,0:52:46.399
in a kind of frozen form,

0:52:46.399,0:52:48.099
10 000 billion tons of this stuff.

0:52:48.099,0:52:51.559
And they are known to be destabilized by warming.

0:52:51.559,0:52:55.420
This chunk of ice may look pretty unremarkable[br]at first glance,

0:52:55.420,0:52:59.579
but put a match to it [br]and something amazing happens...

0:52:59.579,0:53:03.189
As reported in this month's issue of the Atlantic,[br]it's called methane hydrate,

0:53:03.188,0:53:05.389
and it's actually not unusual at all.

0:53:05.389,0:53:10.659
In fact, there are more than one-hundred thousand[br]trillion cubic feet of it on Earth.

0:53:10.659,0:53:13.578
Volume wise, that's like the size of the Mediterranean[br]sea.

0:53:13.579,0:53:19.729
And it has a greater energy capacity than[br]all the coal, oil and natural gas on Earth combined.

0:53:19.729,0:53:22.308
And well methane burns clean.

0:53:22.309,0:53:24.590
Unburned methane is[br]a potent greenhouse gas,[br]

0:53:24.590,0:53:27.188
and if it leaks,[br]it can be devastating to the environment.

0:53:27.188,0:53:32.179
The USGS is confident leakage won't be a problem,[br]as long as proper precautions are taken.

0:53:32.179,0:53:36.989
There are potential irreversible effects of[br]melting the sea ice.

0:53:36.989,0:53:45.899
If it begins to allow the Arctic ocean to[br]warm up and warm the ocean floor,

0:53:45.908,0:53:49.368
then, we'll begin to release methane hydrate.

0:53:49.368,0:53:56.028
About 80 years ago, we switched to studying[br]the East Siberian Arctic shelf.

0:53:56.028,0:54:00.909
And actually, we've been studying it for[br]the last 80 years.

0:54:00.909,0:54:03.608
Continuously, year by year by year.

0:54:03.608,0:54:08.969
Conducting one or two expeditions a year.

0:54:08.969,0:54:15.969
That hydrocarbons are produced within the[br]sedimentary drape, was sealed

0:54:17.119,0:54:20.818
and prevented the methane escape into the atmosphere.

0:54:20.818,0:54:27.818
That is why we're telling that this should[br]be the largest hydrocarbon stock in the world.

0:54:27.969,0:54:28.949
Over there...

0:54:28.949,0:54:33.269
There is a potential risk that, [br]if warming continues,

0:54:33.269,0:54:37.199
the larger and, maybe, great and massive[br]amount of methane

0:54:37.199,0:54:39.849
could be released[br]from this Arctic shelf.

0:54:39.849,0:54:41.789
Of course there is a potential risk.

0:54:41.789,0:54:48.640
And in terms of potential risk, I would say[br]that this Siberian Arctic shelf has the most potential.

0:54:48.778,0:54:54.528
Because, as I said, the carbon pool is huge[br]and the wall of the shell is very shallow

0:54:54.528,0:55:01.159
and the warming occurs stronger than in different[br]areas of the worlds ocean.

0:55:01.159,0:55:03.800
And of course it is a potential risk.

0:55:04.780,0:55:07.849
So the methane in the atmosphere,

0:55:07.849,0:55:11.739
the amount, the total amount of methane in[br]the atmosphere,

0:55:11.739,0:55:13.499
in the current atmosphere,

0:55:13.498,0:55:16.368
it's about five Gigatonnes.

0:55:16.369,0:55:22.548
The amount of carbon preserved in the form[br]of methane in this East Siberian Arctic shelf,

0:55:22.548,0:55:24.509
is approximately...

0:55:24.509,0:55:27.608
from hundreds to thousands of Gigatonnes.

0:55:27.608,0:55:32.879
And of course it's only one percent of that[br]amount is required

0:55:32.879,0:55:36.410
to double the atmosphere burden of methane.

0:55:36.410,0:55:40.449
But to destabilize one percent of this[br]carbon pool,

0:55:40.498,0:55:44.868
I think it's not much effort needed,

0:55:44.869,0:55:51.390
considering that the state of permafrost[br]and the amount of methane currently involved.

0:55:51.389,0:55:58.699
Because what divides this methane from the[br]atmosphere is a very shallow water column,

0:55:58.920,0:56:01.390
and a weakening permafrost,

0:56:01.389,0:56:03.759
which is losing it's ability to seal,

0:56:03.759,0:56:06.108
to serve as a seal.

0:56:06.108,0:56:10.598
And this is, I think it's a matter of...

0:56:10.599,0:56:14.889
it's not a matter of thousands of years,[br]it's a matter of decades, I think.

0:56:14.889,0:56:19.298
Maybe, at most, hundred years but[br]I think,

0:56:19.298,0:56:21.708
matter of decades.

0:56:21.708,0:56:25.214
(It could happen any day)

0:56:25.214,0:56:28.722
It might potentially happen because,

0:56:32.759,0:56:40.260
I would list many factors that might, that are very convenient .. convincing for us.

0:56:40.920,0:56:45.709
So that might happen.

0:56:45.708,0:56:48.748
Not anytime.

0:56:48.748,0:56:51.889
Anytime sounds like it might happen today.

0:56:51.889,0:56:53.708
It might happen tomorrow.

0:56:53.708,0:56:56.321
The day after tomorrow.[br](It might!)

0:56:56.494,0:56:58.608
You think so?

0:57:01.759,0:57:08.289
Igor is very convinced person [br]because he spend a lot of time over there.

0:57:08.739,0:57:15.739
And where the ice should be about two meters[br]thick, it was 40 centimeters thick...

0:57:17.088,0:57:20.298
That means that the processes...

0:57:20.298,0:57:25.728
All the processes that serves the stabilization[br]of everything...

0:57:25.728,0:57:32.038
of the sea ice, of the water column,[br]of the currents increasing,

0:57:32.039,0:57:36.499
(the currents, I mean the movement of water[br]beneath the sea ice increased).

0:57:36.498,0:57:43.399
So everything, everything looks anomalous.[br]Even from our experience from this ten years,

0:57:43.400,0:57:45.338
everything looks anomalous.

0:57:45.338,0:57:51.068
And this is what makes him thinking that...

0:57:51.068,0:57:58.068
making him think that the worst thing might[br]happen...

0:58:08.010,0:58:11.920
Shortly speaking, we do not like what we see[br]there,

0:58:11.920,0:58:14.659
absolutely do not like.

0:58:14.659,0:58:17.009
Uh, look at this.

0:58:17.009,0:58:21.129
In a matter of days...[br]just days,

0:58:21.199,0:58:25.269
we're having this huge, this huge area...

0:58:25.268,0:58:27.659
look at this....

0:58:27.659,0:58:32.629
going almost exploding with methane.

0:58:32.630,0:58:38.949
The only way this is possible is by melting[br]of methane clathrate.

0:58:39.308,0:58:42.068
It´s just the only explanation

0:59:24.258,0:59:27.468
Hi, uhm... how long do you think we have[br]before it becomes

0:59:27.468,0:59:30.938
socially and otherwise [br]unacceptable to emit carbon.

0:59:30.938,0:59:34.288
and, I mean, how radically do you think we[br]need to act consensually?

0:59:34.289,0:59:36.839
Right, well I mean...

0:59:36.838,0:59:43.548
I think, it's, the more we act, the better[br]things will be for future generations.

0:59:43.548,0:59:47.920
I don't, yeah, I mean there's all sorts of[br]estimates.

0:59:47.920,0:59:49.139
And um...

0:59:49.139,0:59:54.679
Basically, if we do a huge amount within the[br]next ten years,

0:59:54.679,0:59:57.798
we will still face quite an uncomfortable[br]future,

0:59:57.798,1:00:01.208
and the less we do, the worse it will get.

1:00:01.208,1:00:04.879
How much of it we can prevent,[br]depends on how bold we are,

1:00:04.880,1:00:10.749
how much we're prepared to do, and that in[br]turn is going to depend on changing social opinions.

1:00:13.360,1:00:16.088
What are the implications of all this,

1:00:16.088,1:00:18.318
for global dynamic behavior,

1:00:18.318,1:00:23.409
both in climate, and indeed, [br]for humanity as a civilization,

1:00:23.409,1:00:27.208
and the biosphere of which we are a part?

1:00:28.758,1:00:34.139
Well obviously, the Arctic is connected to[br]the rest of the world, it is part of the world,

1:00:34.139,1:00:40.719
and what happens in the Arctic inevitably[br]has implications and consequences and spin-off

1:00:40.719,1:00:43.318
for the rest of the planet.

1:00:43.318,1:00:49.929
Socially, we know we will be beginning to[br]remove some of the aerosols,

1:00:49.929,1:00:52.688
these particulates in the atmosphere that,[br]at the moment,

1:00:52.688,1:00:56.829
are reflecting much of the solar energy[br]back into space.

1:00:57.369,1:01:04.369
We also know that much energy is being taken[br]up by heating of the deeper ocean, at the moment.

1:01:05.568,1:01:09.529
And, as the effects of carbon dioxide,[br]and the other greenhouse gases

1:01:09.529,1:01:15.678
and the global behavior as a whole, [br]begin to come back on stream,

1:01:15.679,1:01:22.679
so, global temperatures will begin to respond[br]much as Arctic temperatures did.

1:01:23.159,1:01:26.828
Co2 begins to increase temperature,

1:01:26.829,1:01:29.910
increased temperature drives water vapor feedback,

1:01:29.909,1:01:33.188
water vapor feedback accelerates heating....

1:01:33.868,1:01:38.759
And then we begin to get hotter conditions[br]for some of the tropical forests,

1:01:38.759,1:01:44.158
we get burn and dieback[br]and increased release of carbon dioxide

1:01:44.158,1:01:47.618
from the bio-mass of the planet.

1:01:47.619,1:01:52.759
It's a different set of feedbacks from that[br]operating in the high Arctic,

1:01:52.759,1:01:55.278
but it is nonetheless potent.

1:01:56.318,1:02:02.528
And as in the Arctic, so tomorrow, in the[br]world, as a whole.

1:02:03.619,1:02:10.619
And if the implications of jet-stream behavior[br]and food production and Arctic dynamics spin-off

1:02:11.989,1:02:17.398
into our survival as a species, into our economics,[br]into our food production,

1:02:18.208,1:02:22.088
into the abandonment of the poor,

1:02:22.088,1:02:29.088
and the inability to sustain a population[br]of eight, nine, ten billion people,

1:02:30.418,1:02:32.268
so, also...

1:02:32.268,1:02:36.639
The increasing acceleration of global behavior...

1:02:36.639,1:02:39.788
which will inevitably follow...

1:02:39.789,1:02:45.900
unless we are able to intervene,[br]to slow it down...

1:02:45.900,1:02:48.359
bring it to a halt...[br]and reverse it,

1:02:50.208,1:02:53.049
then, without that intervention...

1:02:53.049,1:02:58.528
global dynamics hold a dark future for humanity...

1:02:59.478,1:03:04.869
a dark future for the biosphere of which we[br]are a part.

1:03:04.869,1:03:07.838
It is time to take action...

1:03:07.838,1:03:11.528
Not only for the Arctic...

1:03:11.528,1:03:16.748
but for the global crisis in which we are[br]all placed.

1:03:16.748,1:03:21.528
There's not agreement on how much we need[br]to do, how fast.

1:03:21.528,1:03:25.528
To be honest, I don't think there needs to[br]be, because the one thing I am certain of is

1:03:25.528,1:03:31.698
that we will not do as much as the scientists[br]say we need to do.

1:03:31.778,1:03:36.748
That's why I've never sort of looked that[br]closely at that particular question because,

1:03:36.748,1:03:40.178
what the scientists say we need to do[br]is over here...

1:03:40.179,1:03:44.099
what we're currently doing is way over here....

1:03:44.099,1:03:48.759
and what various global agreements have tried[br]to get us to do, and often failed,

1:03:48.759,1:03:50.579
is somewhere over here...

1:03:50.579,1:03:52.818
So the gulf is so enormous...

1:03:52.818,1:03:57.528
that um, I yeah, I mean, it's a perfectly[br]fair question....

1:03:57.528,1:04:01.958
but for that reason I've never really looked[br]at it in much detail.

1:04:01.958,1:04:06.159
But I do believe that [br]the more people believe this...

1:04:06.159,1:04:10.618
that the more likely they are to act, so I[br]suspect that there's...

1:04:10.618,1:04:13.298
also denial can operate on many levels...

1:04:13.298,1:04:20.298
You can sort of believe something factually,[br]but not believe it deep down in your heart,

1:04:20.329,1:04:23.150
and so, if you say: [br]"Oh, yes, I accept climate change",

1:04:23.150,1:04:28.408
but, but you just won't allow yourself,[br]on an emotional leve,l to think about

1:04:28.408,1:04:31.578
what is gonna happen [br]to the planet in the future,

1:04:31.579,1:04:34.258
and you can sort of separate[br]your everyday life

1:04:34.258,1:04:38.828
from what you believe, [br]in the more academic side of your mind.

1:04:38.829,1:04:42.089
So, I think that uh...[br]in many ways,

1:04:42.089,1:04:47.179
changing social opinion is the[br]most important thing we can do at present...

1:04:47.179,1:04:49.869
to deal with this problem, because then...

1:04:49.869,1:04:54.119
people might start moving towards what the[br]scientists are saying we need to do.

1:04:57.049,1:05:00.269
We've got a lot of work to do [br]and not much time to do it.

1:05:00.268,1:05:04.189
Um, as I Iook at the world,[br]which is sort of where I start.

1:05:04.189,1:05:06.630
Um...

1:05:06.630,1:05:09.749
We've gotta cut carbon emissions fast.

1:05:09.748,1:05:16.418
Then it becomes clear, we need to cut carbon[br]emissions 80%, not by 2050, but by 2020.

1:05:16.418,1:05:22.728
For decades now, we environmentalists have[br]been talking about the need to save the planet.

1:05:22.728,1:05:27.568
But as I think about it, the planet's gonna[br]be around for a long time to come...

1:05:27.568,1:05:31.778
What we need to save now is civilization itself...

1:05:31.778,1:05:34.760
This is, this is what's at stake...

1:05:36.150,1:05:39.499
Coming up here today, I have no hidden agenda.

1:05:39.498,1:05:42.338
I am fighting for my future.

1:05:42.338,1:05:46.688
I am here to speak for all generations to[br]come.

1:05:46.688,1:05:53.688
I am here to speak on behalf of the starving[br]children around the world whose cries go unheard.

1:05:54.298,1:05:58.498
I am here to speak for the countless animals,[br]dying across this planet,

1:05:58.498,1:06:02.688
because they have no where left to go...

1:06:02.688,1:06:09.458
And now we hear of animals and plants going[br]extinct, everyday, vanishing forever...

1:06:09.458,1:06:16.308
All this is happening before our eyes and[br]yet we act as if we have all the time we want

1:06:16.309,1:06:18.719
and all the solutions.

1:06:18.719,1:06:22.659
You don't know how to fix the holes in our[br]ozone layer.

1:06:22.659,1:06:27.068
You don't know how to bring the salmon back[br]up in a dead stream...

1:06:27.068,1:06:30.668
You don't know how to bring back an animal[br]now extinct.

1:06:30.668,1:06:37.389
And you can't bring back the forest that once[br]grew where there is now a desert...

1:06:37.389,1:06:39.489
If you don't know how to fix it,

1:06:39.489,1:06:43.278
please... stop breaking it.

1:06:43.278,1:06:46.559
I'm only a child yet I know[br]we are all in this together,

1:06:46.559,1:06:51.269
and should act as one single world[br]towards one single goal.

1:06:51.268,1:06:57.889
If a child on the streets who has nothing[br]is willing to share

1:06:57.889,1:07:02.048
then why are we who have everything still so greedy?

1:07:03.088,1:07:08.418
I am only a child yet I know[br]if all the money spent on war

1:07:08.418,1:07:14.064
was spent on finding environmental answers, [br]ending poverty and finding treaties,[br]

1:07:14.064,1:07:17.610
what a wonderful place this earth would be.

1:07:17.610,1:07:21.488
At school, even in Kindergarten,

1:07:21.489,1:07:25.228
you teach us how to behave in the world.

1:07:25.228,1:07:31.409
You teach us, not to fight with others...[br]to work things out,

1:07:31.409,1:07:33.259
to respect others,

1:07:33.259,1:07:34.918
to clean up our mess,

1:07:34.918,1:07:37.429
not to hurt other creatures,

1:07:37.429,1:07:40.039
to share,[br]not be greedy.

1:07:40.130,1:07:46.139
Then why do you go out and do the things you[br]tell us not to do?

1:07:46.139,1:07:49.969
You are deciding what kind of a world we are[br]growing up in.

1:07:49.969,1:07:53.588
Parent's should be able to comfort their children[br]by saying

1:07:53.588,1:07:57.859
"Everything's going to be alright, it's not[br]the end of the world,

1:07:57.859,1:08:00.940
and we're doing [br]the best that we can..."

1:08:00.940,1:08:04.709
But I don't think you can say that to us anymore...

1:08:04.708,1:08:08.578
Are we even on your list of priorities?

1:08:08.579,1:08:09.849
My dad always says

1:08:09.849,1:08:14.099
"You are what you do, not what you say."

1:08:14.099,1:08:18.960
Well, what you do makes me cry at night.

1:08:18.960,1:08:21.408
You grown-ups say you love us.

1:08:21.408,1:08:26.518
But I challenge you, please,[br]make your actions reflect your words.

1:08:26.518,1:08:29.058
Thank you.