[Script Info]
Title: 
[Events]
Format: Layer, Start, End, Style, Name, MarginL, MarginR, MarginV, Effect, Text
Dialogue: 0,0:00:00.73,0:00:04.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Recently, the leadership team\Nof an American supermarket chain
Dialogue: 0,0:00:04.36,0:00:07.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,decided that their business\Nneeded to get a lot more efficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:07.84,0:00:11.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they embraced their digital\Ntransformation with zeal.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:12.17,0:00:16.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Out went the teams\Nsupervising meat, veg, bakery,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:16.15,0:00:20.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and in came an algorithmic task allocator.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:20.91,0:00:23.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, instead of people working together,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:23.04,0:00:27.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,each employee went, clocked in,\Ngot assigned a task, did it,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:27.31,0:00:28.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,came back for more.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:29.43,0:00:33.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was scientific\Nmanagement on steroids,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:33.18,0:00:35.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,standardizing and allocating work.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:35.58,0:00:37.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It was super efficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:38.75,0:00:40.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Well, not quite,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:41.35,0:00:43.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the task allocator didn't know
Dialogue: 0,0:00:43.70,0:00:46.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when a customer was going\Nto drop a box of eggs,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:46.65,0:00:50.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,couldn't predict when some crazy kid\Nwas going to knock over a display,
Dialogue: 0,0:00:50.52,0:00:52.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or when the local high school decided
Dialogue: 0,0:00:52.46,0:00:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that everybody needed\Nto bring in coconuts the next day.
Dialogue: 0,0:00:55.12,0:00:56.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:00:56.14,0:00:58.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Efficiency works really well
Dialogue: 0,0:00:58.30,0:01:01.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when you can predict\Nexactly what you're going to need.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:01.82,0:01:05.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But when the anomalous\Nor unexpected comes along --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:05.12,0:01:07.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,kids, customers, coconuts --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:07.47,0:01:10.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,well, then efficiency\Nis no longer your friend.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:12.07,0:01:14.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This has become a really crucial issue,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:14.22,0:01:16.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,this ability to deal with the unexpected,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:17.77,0:01:21.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the unexpected\Nis becoming the norm.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:21.66,0:01:25.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's why experts and forecasters\Nare reluctant to predict anything
Dialogue: 0,0:01:25.76,0:01:28.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more than 400 days out.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:29.05,0:01:30.50,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Why?
Dialogue: 0,0:01:30.52,0:01:32.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Because over the last 20 or 30 years,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:32.47,0:01:36.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,much of the world has gone\Nfrom being complicated
Dialogue: 0,0:01:36.31,0:01:37.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to being complex --
Dialogue: 0,0:01:38.43,0:01:40.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which means that yes, there are patterns,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:40.74,0:01:43.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they don't repeat\Nthemselves regularly.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:43.44,0:01:47.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It means that very small changes\Ncan make a disproportionate impact.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:48.24,0:01:50.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And it means that expertise\Nwon't always suffice,
Dialogue: 0,0:01:50.93,0:01:54.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because the system\Njust keeps changing too fast.
Dialogue: 0,0:01:56.19,0:01:58.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So what that means
Dialogue: 0,0:01:58.85,0:02:01.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is that there's a huge amount in the world
Dialogue: 0,0:02:01.76,0:02:04.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that kind of defies forecasting now.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:04.77,0:02:08.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's why the Bank of England will say\Nyes, there will be another crash,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:08.63,0:02:11.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we don't know why or when.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:11.81,0:02:14.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know that climate change is real,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:14.45,0:02:17.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we can't predict\Nwhere forest fires will break out,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:17.55,0:02:20.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we don't know which factories\Nare going to flood.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:21.31,0:02:24.00,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's why companies are blindsided
Dialogue: 0,0:02:24.03,0:02:28.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when plastic straws\Nand bags and bottled water
Dialogue: 0,0:02:28.92,0:02:32.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,go from staples to rejects overnight,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:33.49,0:02:37.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and baffled when a change in social mores
Dialogue: 0,0:02:37.08,0:02:41.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,turns stars into pariahs\Nand colleagues into outcasts:
Dialogue: 0,0:02:43.16,0:02:46.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,ineradicable uncertainty.
Dialogue: 0,0:02:47.32,0:02:51.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In an environment that defies\Nso much forecasting,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:51.68,0:02:54.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,efficiency won't just not help us,
Dialogue: 0,0:02:54.91,0:03:01.86,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it specifically undermines and erodes\Nour capacity to adapt and respond.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:04.06,0:03:07.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So if efficiency is no longer\Nour guiding principle,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:07.22,0:03:08.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how should we address the future?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:08.99,0:03:11.44,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What kind of thinking\Nis really going to help us?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:11.47,0:03:16.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What sort of talents\Nmust we be sure to defend?
Dialogue: 0,0:03:17.60,0:03:22.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I think that, where in the past we used to\Nthink a lot about just in time management,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:22.51,0:03:26.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,now we have to start thinking\Nabout just in case,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:26.42,0:03:29.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,preparing for events\Nthat are generally certain
Dialogue: 0,0:03:29.84,0:03:32.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but specifically remain ambiguous.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:33.11,0:03:38.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One example of this is the Coalition\Nfor Epidemic Preparedness, CEPI.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:38.33,0:03:42.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We know there will be\Nmore epidemics in future,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:42.45,0:03:46.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but we don't know where or when or what.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:46.36,0:03:48.30,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So we can't plan.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:48.94,0:03:50.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But we can prepare.
Dialogue: 0,0:03:51.26,0:03:57.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines\Nfor multiple diseases,
Dialogue: 0,0:03:57.87,0:04:01.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowing that they can't predict\Nwhich vaccines are going to work
Dialogue: 0,0:04:01.44,0:04:03.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or which diseases will break out.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:03.48,0:04:06.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So some of those vaccines\Nwill never be used.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:06.48,0:04:07.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's inefficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:08.79,0:04:10.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's robust,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:10.73,0:04:12.66,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it provides more options,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:12.69,0:04:17.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it means that we don't depend\Non a single technological solution.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:18.57,0:04:21.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Epidemic responsiveness\Nalso depends hugely
Dialogue: 0,0:04:21.96,0:04:24.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on people who know and trust each other.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:24.90,0:04:27.69,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But those relationships\Ntake time to develop,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:27.71,0:04:31.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,time that is always in short supply\Nwhen an epidemic breaks out.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:31.96,0:04:37.05,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So CEPI is developing relationships,\Nfriendships, alliances now
Dialogue: 0,0:04:38.20,0:04:41.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,knowing that some of those\Nmay never be used.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:41.95,0:04:45.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,That's inefficient,\Na waste of time, perhaps,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:45.13,0:04:46.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's robust.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:47.16,0:04:50.97,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can see robust thinking\Nin financial services, too.
Dialogue: 0,0:04:50.99,0:04:54.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the past, banks used to hold\Nmuch less capital
Dialogue: 0,0:04:54.77,0:04:56.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,than they're required to today,
Dialogue: 0,0:04:57.02,0:05:00.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because holding so little capital,\Nbeing too efficient with it,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:00.78,0:05:03.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is what made the banks\Nso fragile in the first place.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:04.58,0:05:10.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, holding more capital\Nlooks and is inefficient.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:10.09,0:05:16.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it's robust, because it protects\Nthe financial system against surprises.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:17.08,0:05:20.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Countries that are really serious\Nabout climate change
Dialogue: 0,0:05:20.10,0:05:23.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,know that they have to adopt\Nmultiple solutions,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:23.67,0:05:26.70,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,multiple forms of renewable energy,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:26.73,0:05:28.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,not just one.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:28.08,0:05:32.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The countries that are most advanced\Nhave been working for years now,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:32.96,0:05:36.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,changing their water and food supply\Nand healthcare systems,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:36.65,0:05:41.26,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they recognize that by the time\Nthey have certain prediction,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:41.29,0:05:44.60,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that information may very well\Ncome too late.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:45.46,0:05:49.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,You can take the same approach\Nto trade wars, and many countries do.
Dialogue: 0,0:05:49.94,0:05:53.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Instead of depending on a single\Nhuge trading partner,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:53.78,0:05:55.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they try to be everybody's friends,
Dialogue: 0,0:05:55.91,0:05:58.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because they know they can't predict
Dialogue: 0,0:05:58.28,0:06:02.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which markets might\Nsuddenly become unstable.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:02.05,0:06:06.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's time-consuming and expensive,\Nnegotiating all these deals,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:06.31,0:06:07.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but it's robust
Dialogue: 0,0:06:07.50,0:06:12.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because it makes their whole economy\Nbetter defended against shocks.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:12.93,0:06:16.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It's particularly a strategy\Nadopted by small countries
Dialogue: 0,0:06:16.63,0:06:20.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that know they'll never have\Nthe market muscle to call the shots,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:20.74,0:06:23.90,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,so it's just better to have\Ntoo many friends.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:25.92,0:06:28.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But if you're stuck\Nin one of these organizations
Dialogue: 0,0:06:28.35,0:06:33.25,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that's still kind of captured\Nby the efficiency myth,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:33.27,0:06:35.03,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how do you start to change it?
Dialogue: 0,0:06:36.01,0:06:37.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Try some experiments.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:38.42,0:06:39.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In the Netherlands,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:39.81,0:06:44.52,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,home care nursing used to be run\Npretty much like the supermarket:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:44.55,0:06:47.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,standardized and prescribed work
Dialogue: 0,0:06:47.35,0:06:49.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the minute:
Dialogue: 0,0:06:49.14,0:06:52.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,nine minutes on Monday,\Nseven minutes on Wednesday,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:52.82,0:06:54.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,eight minutes on Friday.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:54.56,0:06:56.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The nurses hated it.
Dialogue: 0,0:06:56.97,0:06:59.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So one of them, Jos de Blok,
Dialogue: 0,0:06:59.36,0:07:00.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,proposed an experiment.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:01.56,0:07:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Since every patient is different,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:03.22,0:07:05.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we don't quite know\Nexactly what they'll need,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:05.66,0:07:08.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,why don't we just leave it\Nto the nurses to decide?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:09.27,0:07:10.64,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Sound reckless?
Dialogue: 0,0:07:10.66,0:07:12.06,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:12.08,0:07:14.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:07:14.22,0:07:18.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In his experiment, Jos found\Nthe patients got better
Dialogue: 0,0:07:18.38,0:07:20.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in half the time,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:20.94,0:07:24.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and costs fell by 30 percent.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:25.92,0:07:30.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,When I asked Jos what had surprised him\Nabout his experiment,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:30.16,0:07:31.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,he just kind of laughed and he said,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:31.97,0:07:35.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Well, I had no idea it could be so easy
Dialogue: 0,0:07:35.19,0:07:37.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to find such a huge improvement,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:37.80,0:07:41.43,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because this isn't the kind of thing\Nyou can know or predict
Dialogue: 0,0:07:41.45,0:07:44.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,sitting at a desk\Nor staring at a computer screen."
Dialogue: 0,0:07:44.73,0:07:48.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now this form of nursing\Nhas proliferated across the Netherlands
Dialogue: 0,0:07:48.53,0:07:50.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and around the world.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:50.29,0:07:53.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in every new country\Nit still starts with experiments,
Dialogue: 0,0:07:53.53,0:07:58.39,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because each place is slightly\Nand unpredictably different.
Dialogue: 0,0:07:59.25,0:08:03.20,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Of course, not all experiments work.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:03.22,0:08:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Jos tried a similar approach\Nto the fire service
Dialogue: 0,0:08:06.30,0:08:09.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and found it didn't work because\Nthe service is just too centralized.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:09.86,0:08:12.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Failed experiments look inefficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:12.45,0:08:15.63,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they're often the only way\Nyou can figure out
Dialogue: 0,0:08:15.66,0:08:17.93,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,how the real world works.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:18.28,0:08:21.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So now he's trying teachers.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:22.75,0:08:26.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Experiments like that require creativity
Dialogue: 0,0:08:26.52,0:08:28.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and not a little bravery.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:29.61,0:08:31.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In England --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:31.98,0:08:34.88,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I was about to say in the UK,\Nbut in England --
Dialogue: 0,0:08:34.91,0:08:36.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:36.67,0:08:40.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:08:41.36,0:08:45.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,In England, the leading rugby team,\Nor one of the leading rugby teams,
Dialogue: 0,0:08:45.47,0:08:46.83,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is Saracens.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:47.30,0:08:52.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The manager and the coach there realized\Nthat all the physical training they do
Dialogue: 0,0:08:52.39,0:08:55.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and the data-driven\Nconditioning that they do
Dialogue: 0,0:08:55.13,0:08:56.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,has become generic;
Dialogue: 0,0:08:56.30,0:08:59.09,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,really, all the teams\Ndo exactly the same thing.
Dialogue: 0,0:08:59.68,0:09:02.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So they risked an experiment.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:02.04,0:09:06.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They took the whole team away,\Neven in match season,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:06.31,0:09:07.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,on ski trips
Dialogue: 0,0:09:07.75,0:09:11.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and to look at social projects in Chicago.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:11.06,0:09:12.59,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,This was expensive,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:12.62,0:09:14.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,it was time-consuming,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:14.59,0:09:16.27,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it could be a little risky
Dialogue: 0,0:09:16.30,0:09:20.07,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,putting a whole bunch of rugby players\Non a ski slope, right?
Dialogue: 0,0:09:20.09,0:09:21.14,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Laughter)
Dialogue: 0,0:09:21.16,0:09:24.51,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But what they found was that\Nthe players came back
Dialogue: 0,0:09:24.53,0:09:29.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,with renewed bonds\Nof loyalty and solidarity.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:29.82,0:09:33.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And now when they're on the pitch\Nunder incredible pressure,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:33.26,0:09:37.68,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,they manifest what the manager\Ncalls "poise" --
Dialogue: 0,0:09:38.52,0:09:42.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,an unflinching, unwavering dedication
Dialogue: 0,0:09:42.70,0:09:44.17,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to each other.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:44.82,0:09:48.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Their opponents are in awe of this,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:48.60,0:09:52.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but still too in thrall\Nto efficiency to try it.
Dialogue: 0,0:09:53.78,0:09:55.82,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,At a London tech company, Verve,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:55.84,0:09:59.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the CEO measures just about\Neverything that moves,
Dialogue: 0,0:09:59.21,0:10:02.23,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but she couldn't find anything\Nthat made any difference
Dialogue: 0,0:10:02.25,0:10:04.38,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the company's productivity.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:04.40,0:10:08.16,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So she devised an experiment\Nthat she calls "Love Week":
Dialogue: 0,0:10:08.18,0:10:12.72,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a whole week where each employee\Nhas to look for really clever,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:12.74,0:10:15.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,helpful, imaginative things
Dialogue: 0,0:10:15.05,0:10:16.85,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that a counterpart does,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:16.87,0:10:19.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,call it out and celebrate it.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:19.36,0:10:21.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,It takes a huge amount of time and effort;
Dialogue: 0,0:10:21.50,0:10:24.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,lots of people would call it distracting.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:24.56,0:10:26.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But it really energizes the business
Dialogue: 0,0:10:26.82,0:10:30.46,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and makes the whole company\Nmore productive.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:32.05,0:10:35.35,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Preparedness, coalition-building,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:35.38,0:10:38.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,imagination, experiments,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:38.98,0:10:40.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,bravery --
Dialogue: 0,0:10:41.03,0:10:42.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,in an unpredictable age,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:42.65,0:10:48.32,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,these are tremendous sources\Nof resilience and strength.
Dialogue: 0,0:10:48.67,0:10:51.24,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,They aren't efficient,
Dialogue: 0,0:10:52.28,0:10:54.95,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,but they give us limitless capacity
Dialogue: 0,0:10:54.97,0:10:59.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,for adaptation, variation and invention.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:00.28,0:11:02.71,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the less we know about the future,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:02.73,0:11:08.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the more we're going to need\Nthese tremendous sources
Dialogue: 0,0:11:08.16,0:11:13.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of human, messy, unpredictable skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:15.34,0:11:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But in our growing\Ndependence on technology,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:20.32,0:11:23.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we're asset-stripping those skills.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:24.64,0:11:28.21,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Every time we use technology
Dialogue: 0,0:11:28.23,0:11:32.42,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to nudge us through a decision or a choice
Dialogue: 0,0:11:32.45,0:11:34.76,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or to interpret how somebody's feeling
Dialogue: 0,0:11:34.78,0:11:36.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,or to guide us through a conversation,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:36.99,0:11:42.10,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we outsource to a machine\Nwhat we could, can do ourselves,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:42.12,0:11:44.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and it's an expensive trade-off.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:45.85,0:11:48.75,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more we let machines think for us,
Dialogue: 0,0:11:49.78,0:11:52.65,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less we can think for ourselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:11:53.66,0:11:54.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more --
Dialogue: 0,0:11:54.84,0:11:59.41,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:11:59.43,0:12:04.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more time doctors spend\Nstaring at digital medical records,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:04.18,0:12:07.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less time they spend\Nlooking at their patients.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:08.32,0:12:11.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more we use parenting apps,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:11.14,0:12:13.29,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less we know our kids.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:14.31,0:12:19.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The more time we spend with people that\Nwe're predicted and programmed to like,
Dialogue: 0,0:12:19.42,0:12:23.13,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,the less we can connect with people\Nwho are different from ourselves.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:23.15,0:12:28.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And the less compassion we need,\Nthe less compassion we have.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:29.82,0:12:33.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What all of these\Ntechnologies attempt to do
Dialogue: 0,0:12:33.38,0:12:40.18,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is to force-fit a standardized model\Nof a predictable reality
Dialogue: 0,0:12:40.20,0:12:43.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,onto a world that is\Ninfinitely surprising.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:44.93,0:12:46.28,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,What gets left out?
Dialogue: 0,0:12:46.96,0:12:49.57,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anything that can't be measured --
Dialogue: 0,0:12:50.45,0:12:52.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,which is just about\Neverything that counts.
Dialogue: 0,0:12:53.81,0:13:00.78,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)
Dialogue: 0,0:13:02.85,0:13:06.94,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Our growing dependence on technology
Dialogue: 0,0:13:06.96,0:13:10.74,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,risks us becoming less skilled,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:10.76,0:13:12.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,more vulnerable
Dialogue: 0,0:13:12.38,0:13:15.33,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,to the deep and growing complexity
Dialogue: 0,0:13:15.36,0:13:16.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,of the real world.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:17.95,0:13:23.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Now, as I was thinking about\Nthe extremes of stress and turbulence
Dialogue: 0,0:13:23.36,0:13:26.02,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we know we will have to confront,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:27.41,0:13:30.36,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,I went and I talked to\Na number of chief executives
Dialogue: 0,0:13:30.39,0:13:34.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,whose own businesses had gone\Nthrough existential crises,
Dialogue: 0,0:13:34.58,0:13:37.47,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when they teetered\Non the brink of collapse.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:38.59,0:13:43.40,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,These were frank,\Ngut-wrenching conversations.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:44.30,0:13:47.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Many men wept just remembering.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:48.21,0:13:49.73,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,So I asked them:
Dialogue: 0,0:13:50.60,0:13:52.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"What kept you going through this?"
Dialogue: 0,0:13:53.33,0:13:55.98,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they all had exactly the same answer.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:56.01,0:13:59.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"It wasn't data or technology," they said.
Dialogue: 0,0:13:59.93,0:14:03.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"It was my friends and my colleagues
Dialogue: 0,0:14:03.34,0:14:04.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,who kept me going."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:05.17,0:14:10.49,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,One added, "It was pretty much\Nthe opposite of the gig economy."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:12.06,0:14:15.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But then I went and I talked to a group\Nof young, rising executives,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:15.81,0:14:17.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and I asked them,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:17.64,0:14:19.19,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"Who are your friends at work?"
Dialogue: 0,0:14:19.21,0:14:20.99,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,And they just looked blank.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:21.76,0:14:23.62,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"There's no time."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:23.64,0:14:25.45,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"They're too busy."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:25.47,0:14:26.91,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,"It's not efficient."
Dialogue: 0,0:14:27.91,0:14:31.48,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Who, I wondered, is going to give them
Dialogue: 0,0:14:31.50,0:14:36.04,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,imagination and stamina and bravery
Dialogue: 0,0:14:36.06,0:14:37.58,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,when the storms come?
Dialogue: 0,0:14:39.69,0:14:43.34,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Anyone who tries to tell you\Nthat they know the future
Dialogue: 0,0:14:43.36,0:14:45.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,is just trying to own it,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:45.58,0:14:48.89,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,a spurious kind of manifest destiny.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:49.79,0:14:52.12,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,The harder, deeper truth is
Dialogue: 0,0:14:53.13,0:14:55.54,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that the future is uncharted,
Dialogue: 0,0:14:55.56,0:14:57.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,that we can't map it till we get there.
Dialogue: 0,0:14:58.73,0:15:00.80,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But that's OK,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:00.82,0:15:03.84,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,because we have so much imagination --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:03.86,0:15:05.31,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we use it.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:05.33,0:15:10.81,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We have deep talents\Nof inventiveness and exploration --
Dialogue: 0,0:15:10.83,0:15:12.61,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,if we apply them.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:12.64,0:15:18.15,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,We are brave enough to invent things\Nwe've never seen before.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:19.18,0:15:20.79,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Lose those skills,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:21.81,0:15:23.53,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,and we are adrift.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:24.38,0:15:27.11,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,But hone and develop them,
Dialogue: 0,0:15:28.50,0:15:30.96,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,we can make any future we choose.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:32.38,0:15:33.56,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,Thank you.
Dialogue: 0,0:15:33.58,0:15:39.67,Default,,0000,0000,0000,,(Applause)