WEBVTT 00:00:04.554 --> 00:00:06.394 I am professor Hans Rosling 00:00:06.394 --> 00:00:09.135 I'm am participating in the fight against Ebola 00:00:09.140 --> 00:00:11.000 here in Liberia. 00:00:11.000 --> 00:00:14.900 In this country the number of new cases per day has come down 00:00:14.980 --> 00:00:18.574 from almost 100 in the end of september 00:00:18.574 --> 00:00:20.695 to now in the beginning in December 00:00:20.700 --> 00:00:22.160 around 10 per day. 00:00:22.160 --> 00:00:24.298 But that is still very dangerous! 00:00:24.560 --> 00:00:29.960 Because the only safe and stable level for Ebola is zero cases per day. 00:00:29.960 --> 00:00:33.160 So we say Ebola must go all the way down to zero. 00:00:33.160 --> 00:00:35.380 We must stop transmission among humans. 00:00:35.680 --> 00:00:38.400 But that is difficult now at the low level 00:00:38.400 --> 00:00:41.980 because Ebola is hiding in between the other infectious diseases 00:00:42.320 --> 00:00:45.600 So we have to be like detectives and hunt the virus 00:00:45.660 --> 00:00:50.020 and we do that using a method called "contact tracing". 00:00:50.020 --> 00:00:51.375 I will show you how it works. 00:00:52.320 --> 00:00:57.000 Imagine that this is a patient that is very sick with Ebola. 00:00:57.000 --> 00:01:04.260 It's a contagious disease and everyone that has been in contact with this patient may be infected. 00:01:04.260 --> 00:01:06.760 So what we need to do are two things: 00:01:06.760 --> 00:01:11.393 we need to take the patients to an Ebola Treatment Center and isolate them, 00:01:11.400 --> 00:01:15.500 and then we have to list all the contacts. 00:01:15.820 --> 00:01:19.180 We have to make a list with everyone that was in contact 00:01:19.180 --> 00:01:24.140 with this patient during the days that he/she was sick. 00:01:24.208 --> 00:01:27.488 Then we start what we call the 'contact tracing'. 00:01:27.488 --> 00:01:33.068 In the next 21 days 00:01:33.820 --> 00:01:37.040 we follow all these persons 00:01:37.040 --> 00:01:42.056 and we have to follow them everyday, check the temperature and ask them how they feel 00:01:42.060 --> 00:01:45.160 and if one of them is infected, 00:01:45.160 --> 00:01:46.814 let's say that this one is infected 00:01:46.840 --> 00:01:48.440 and this one is infected 00:01:48.440 --> 00:01:51.433 we don't know, there is no test we can use. 00:01:51.433 --> 00:01:53.200 So we just have to follow them. 00:01:53.200 --> 00:01:57.708 Now those who are not infected, we follow them for 21 days and we find nothing 00:01:57.708 --> 00:01:59.700 we follow this one, we find nothing 00:02:00.140 --> 00:02:00.780 same here 00:02:00.980 --> 00:02:02.180 same here 00:02:02.820 --> 00:02:06.300 But this one that has the virus in the body 00:02:06.520 --> 00:02:11.640 after 10 or 15 days, they get fever, headache, diarrhea 00:02:11.820 --> 00:02:14.940 and then very fast we isolate them. 00:02:14.940 --> 00:02:18.880 So when they develop full blown Ebola here 00:02:18.880 --> 00:02:22.700 they are very contagious, they are already in the Treatment Center 00:02:22.700 --> 00:02:24.040 and they are isolated. 00:02:24.040 --> 00:02:27.180 Now this one here... 00:02:27.220 --> 00:02:29.700 May not have confidence in our system 00:02:29.700 --> 00:02:31.494 they are scared and they decide... 00:02:31.620 --> 00:02:35.332 "no, I get a little fever today, hope it's malaria" 00:02:35.332 --> 00:02:36.893 and they move away somewhere else 00:02:36.940 --> 00:02:39.020 they avoid our contact tracers. 00:02:39.020 --> 00:02:40.600 That's very dangerous! 00:02:40.600 --> 00:02:45.460 Because then they would get Ebola outside our control 00:02:45.460 --> 00:02:47.474 and they may infect other persons. 00:02:47.533 --> 00:02:50.333 And we may also have missed one person down here 00:02:50.340 --> 00:02:52.840 Let's say this is the brother to the case 00:02:52.840 --> 00:02:56.820 and he took a bicycle and went to relatives' to live there. 00:02:56.940 --> 00:03:00.620 If he was infected, we won't know it. 00:03:01.400 --> 00:03:04.440 He will develop Ebola here and infect others. 00:03:04.740 --> 00:03:09.760 So we need a perfect contact tracing system, 00:03:09.760 --> 00:03:13.640 and perfect means that everyone has to be listed. 00:03:14.160 --> 00:03:16.640 So that when they develop the disease 00:03:16.731 --> 00:03:18.971 we can isolate them immediately. 00:03:18.971 --> 00:03:24.906 And those who are scared and don't trust that it's the best to wait for the contact tracer 00:03:24.906 --> 00:03:27.900 we have to convince them and have to be very kind 00:03:27.900 --> 00:03:32.700 so that they would like to be included in our system 00:03:32.708 --> 00:03:34.500 and we can isolate them like that. 00:03:34.600 --> 00:03:37.320 Now the challenge today in Liberia is that 00:03:37.320 --> 00:03:40.280 we have six thousand contacts we are following. 00:03:40.280 --> 00:03:42.352 and they live throughout the country 00:03:42.499 --> 00:03:44.499 most of them here in Monrovia. 00:03:45.980 --> 00:03:48.300 And it's far from a perfect system. 00:03:48.700 --> 00:03:52.220 We have a leakage of patients who are not in the system 00:03:52.480 --> 00:03:53.360 like this one 00:03:53.838 --> 00:03:56.318 and those who we loose during the control. 00:03:56.318 --> 00:03:57.515 But they're getting better and better. 00:03:57.515 --> 00:03:59.173 And we need more resources 00:03:59.320 --> 00:04:02.440 today we don't need more Ebola Treatment Units 00:04:02.820 --> 00:04:05.460 we need more international support for 00:04:05.460 --> 00:04:06.492 this contact tracing. 00:04:06.492 --> 00:04:09.700 And we need people who come and stay for several months 00:04:10.300 --> 00:04:14.273 then we can find all these contacts 00:04:14.273 --> 00:04:16.279 and we can follow them perfectly 00:04:16.600 --> 00:04:20.860 So somewhere in the next year 00:04:20.860 --> 00:04:23.820 when we have made this better and better 00:04:23.820 --> 00:04:26.800 then we may end Ebola transmission completely. 00:04:26.866 --> 00:04:29.880 And then it also has to be done in the neighbouring countries. 00:04:29.880 --> 00:04:33.320 That is possible, but it requires lots of resources 00:04:33.320 --> 00:04:34.700 and lots of endurance 00:04:34.700 --> 00:04:36.060 that we don't give up 00:04:36.060 --> 00:04:38.020 because we have only one objective: 00:04:38.120 --> 00:04:42.080 Ebola must go! Go all the way down to zero.