1 00:00:04,554 --> 00:00:06,394 I am professor Hans Rosling 2 00:00:06,394 --> 00:00:09,135 I'm am participating in the fight against Ebola 3 00:00:09,140 --> 00:00:11,000 here in Liberia. 4 00:00:11,000 --> 00:00:14,900 In this country the number of new cases per day has come down 5 00:00:14,980 --> 00:00:18,574 from almost 100 in the end of september 6 00:00:18,574 --> 00:00:20,695 to now in the beginning in December 7 00:00:20,700 --> 00:00:22,160 around 10 per day. 8 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:24,298 But that is still very dangerous! 9 00:00:24,560 --> 00:00:29,960 Because the only safe and stable level for Ebola is zero cases per day. 10 00:00:29,960 --> 00:00:33,160 So we say Ebola must go all the way down to zero. 11 00:00:33,160 --> 00:00:35,380 We must stop transmission among humans. 12 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,400 But that is difficult now at the low level 13 00:00:38,400 --> 00:00:41,980 because Ebola is hiding in between the other infectious diseases 14 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,600 So we have to be like detectives and hunt the virus 15 00:00:45,660 --> 00:00:50,020 and we do that using a method called "contact tracing". 16 00:00:50,020 --> 00:00:51,375 I will show you how it works. 17 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:57,000 Imagine that this is a patient that is very sick with Ebola. 18 00:00:57,000 --> 00:01:04,260 It's a contagious disease and everyone that has been in contact with this patient may be infected. 19 00:01:04,260 --> 00:01:06,760 So what we need to do are two things: 20 00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:11,393 we need to take the patients to an Ebola Treatment Center and isolate them, 21 00:01:11,400 --> 00:01:15,500 and then we have to list all the contacts. 22 00:01:15,820 --> 00:01:19,180 We have to make a list with everyone that was in contact 23 00:01:19,180 --> 00:01:24,140 with this patient during the days that he/she was sick. 24 00:01:24,208 --> 00:01:27,488 Then we start what we call the 'contact tracing'. 25 00:01:27,488 --> 00:01:33,068 In the next 21 days 26 00:01:33,820 --> 00:01:37,040 we follow all these persons 27 00:01:37,040 --> 00:01:42,056 and we have to follow them everyday, check the temperature and ask them how they feel 28 00:01:42,060 --> 00:01:45,160 and if one of them is infected, 29 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:46,814 let's say that this one is infected 30 00:01:46,840 --> 00:01:48,440 and this one is infected 31 00:01:48,440 --> 00:01:51,433 we don't know, there is no test we can use. 32 00:01:51,433 --> 00:01:53,200 So we just have to follow them. 33 00:01:53,200 --> 00:01:57,708 Now those who are not infected, we follow them for 21 days and we find nothing 34 00:01:57,708 --> 00:01:59,700 we follow this one, we find nothing 35 00:02:00,140 --> 00:02:00,780 same here 36 00:02:00,980 --> 00:02:02,180 same here 37 00:02:02,820 --> 00:02:06,300 But this one that has the virus in the body 38 00:02:06,520 --> 00:02:11,640 after 10 or 15 days, they get fever, headache, diarrhea 39 00:02:11,820 --> 00:02:14,940 and then very fast we isolate them. 40 00:02:14,940 --> 00:02:18,880 So when they develop full blown Ebola here 41 00:02:18,880 --> 00:02:22,700 they are very contagious, they are already in the Treatment Center 42 00:02:22,700 --> 00:02:24,040 and they are isolated. 43 00:02:24,040 --> 00:02:27,180 Now this one here... 44 00:02:27,220 --> 00:02:29,700 May not have confidence in our system 45 00:02:29,700 --> 00:02:31,494 they are scared and they decide... 46 00:02:31,620 --> 00:02:35,332 "no, I get a little fever today, hope it's malaria" 47 00:02:35,332 --> 00:02:36,893 and they move away somewhere else 48 00:02:36,940 --> 00:02:39,020 they avoid our contact tracers. 49 00:02:39,020 --> 00:02:40,600 That's very dangerous! 50 00:02:40,600 --> 00:02:45,460 Because then they would get Ebola outside our control 51 00:02:45,460 --> 00:02:47,474 and they may infect other persons. 52 00:02:47,533 --> 00:02:50,333 And we may also have missed one person down here 53 00:02:50,340 --> 00:02:52,840 Let's say this is the brother to the case 54 00:02:52,840 --> 00:02:56,820 and he took a bicycle and went to relatives' to live there. 55 00:02:56,940 --> 00:03:00,620 If he was infected, we won't know it. 56 00:03:01,400 --> 00:03:04,440 He will develop Ebola here and infect others. 57 00:03:04,740 --> 00:03:09,760 So we need a perfect contact tracing system, 58 00:03:09,760 --> 00:03:13,640 and perfect means that everyone has to be listed. 59 00:03:14,160 --> 00:03:16,640 So that when they develop the disease 60 00:03:16,731 --> 00:03:18,971 we can isolate them immediately. 61 00:03:18,971 --> 00:03:24,906 And those who are scared and don't trust that it's the best to wait for the contact tracer 62 00:03:24,906 --> 00:03:27,900 we have to convince them and have to be very kind 63 00:03:27,900 --> 00:03:32,700 so that they would like to be included in our system 64 00:03:32,708 --> 00:03:34,500 and we can isolate them like that. 65 00:03:34,600 --> 00:03:37,320 Now the challenge today in Liberia is that 66 00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,280 we have six thousand contacts we are following. 67 00:03:40,280 --> 00:03:42,352 and they live throughout the country 68 00:03:42,499 --> 00:03:44,499 most of them here in Monrovia. 69 00:03:45,980 --> 00:03:48,300 And it's far from a perfect system. 70 00:03:48,700 --> 00:03:52,220 We have a leakage of patients who are not in the system 71 00:03:52,480 --> 00:03:53,360 like this one 72 00:03:53,838 --> 00:03:56,318 and those who we loose during the control. 73 00:03:56,318 --> 00:03:57,515 But they're getting better and better. 74 00:03:57,515 --> 00:03:59,173 And we need more resources 75 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,440 today we don't need more Ebola Treatment Units 76 00:04:02,820 --> 00:04:05,460 we need more international support for 77 00:04:05,460 --> 00:04:06,492 this contact tracing. 78 00:04:06,492 --> 00:04:09,700 And we need people who come and stay for several months 79 00:04:10,300 --> 00:04:14,273 then we can find all these contacts 80 00:04:14,273 --> 00:04:16,279 and we can follow them perfectly 81 00:04:16,600 --> 00:04:20,860 So somewhere in the next year 82 00:04:20,860 --> 00:04:23,820 when we have made this better and better 83 00:04:23,820 --> 00:04:26,800 then we may end Ebola transmission completely. 84 00:04:26,866 --> 00:04:29,880 And then it also has to be done in the neighbouring countries. 85 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:33,320 That is possible, but it requires lots of resources 86 00:04:33,320 --> 00:04:34,700 and lots of endurance 87 00:04:34,700 --> 00:04:36,060 that we don't give up 88 00:04:36,060 --> 00:04:38,020 because we have only one objective: 89 00:04:38,120 --> 00:04:42,080 Ebola must go! Go all the way down to zero.