0:00:04.554,0:00:06.394 I am professor Hans Rosling 0:00:06.394,0:00:09.135 I'm am participating in the fight against Ebola 0:00:09.140,0:00:11.000 here in Liberia. 0:00:11.000,0:00:14.900 In this country the number of new cases per day has come down 0:00:14.980,0:00:18.574 from almost 100 in the end of september 0:00:18.574,0:00:20.695 to now in the beginning in December 0:00:20.700,0:00:22.160 around 10 per day. 0:00:22.160,0:00:24.298 But that is still very dangerous! 0:00:24.560,0:00:29.960 Because the only safe and stable level for Ebola is zero cases per day. 0:00:29.960,0:00:33.160 So we say Ebola must go all the way down to zero. 0:00:33.160,0:00:35.380 We must stop transmission among humans. 0:00:35.680,0:00:38.400 But that is difficult now at the low level 0:00:38.400,0:00:41.980 because Ebola is hiding in between the other infectious diseases 0:00:42.320,0:00:45.600 So we have to be like detectives and hunt the virus 0:00:45.660,0:00:50.020 and we do that using a method called "contact tracing". 0:00:50.020,0:00:51.375 I will show you how it works. 0:00:52.320,0:00:57.000 Imagine that this is a patient that is very sick with Ebola. 0:00:57.000,0:01:04.260 It's a contagious disease and everyone that has been in contact with this patient may be infected. 0:01:04.260,0:01:06.760 So what we need to do are two things: 0:01:06.760,0:01:11.393 we need to take the patients to an Ebola Treatment Center and isolate them, 0:01:11.400,0:01:15.500 and then we have to list all the contacts. 0:01:15.820,0:01:19.180 We have to make a list with everyone that was in contact 0:01:19.180,0:01:24.140 with this patient during the days that he/she was sick. 0:01:24.208,0:01:27.488 Then we start what we call the 'contact tracing'. 0:01:27.488,0:01:33.068 In the next 21 days 0:01:33.820,0:01:37.040 we follow all these persons 0:01:37.040,0:01:42.056 and we have to follow them everyday, check the temperature and ask them how they feel 0:01:42.060,0:01:45.160 and if one of them is infected, 0:01:45.160,0:01:46.814 let's say that this one is infected 0:01:46.840,0:01:48.440 and this one is infected 0:01:48.440,0:01:51.433 we don't know, there is no test we can use. 0:01:51.433,0:01:53.200 So we just have to follow them. 0:01:53.200,0:01:57.708 Now those who are not infected, we follow them for 21 days and we find nothing 0:01:57.708,0:01:59.700 we follow this one, we find nothing 0:02:00.140,0:02:00.780 same here 0:02:00.980,0:02:02.180 same here 0:02:02.820,0:02:06.300 But this one that has the virus in the body 0:02:06.520,0:02:11.640 after 10 or 15 days, they get fever, headache, diarrhea 0:02:11.820,0:02:14.940 and then very fast we isolate them. 0:02:14.940,0:02:18.880 So when they develop full blown Ebola here 0:02:18.880,0:02:22.700 they are very contagious, they are already in the Treatment Center 0:02:22.700,0:02:24.040 and they are isolated. 0:02:24.040,0:02:27.180 Now this one here... 0:02:27.220,0:02:29.700 May not have confidence in our system 0:02:29.700,0:02:31.494 they are scared and they decide... 0:02:31.620,0:02:35.332 "no, I get a little fever today, hope it's malaria" 0:02:35.332,0:02:36.893 and they move away somewhere else 0:02:36.940,0:02:39.020 they avoid our contact tracers. 0:02:39.020,0:02:40.600 That's very dangerous! 0:02:40.600,0:02:45.460 Because then they would get Ebola outside our control 0:02:45.460,0:02:47.474 and they may infect other persons. 0:02:47.533,0:02:50.333 And we may also have missed one person down here 0:02:50.340,0:02:52.840 Let's say this is the brother to the case 0:02:52.840,0:02:56.820 and he took a bicycle and went to relatives' to live there. 0:02:56.940,0:03:00.620 If he was infected, we won't know it. 0:03:01.400,0:03:04.440 He will develop Ebola here and infect others. 0:03:04.740,0:03:09.760 So we need a perfect contact tracing system, 0:03:09.760,0:03:13.640 and perfect means that everyone has to be listed. 0:03:14.160,0:03:16.640 So that when they develop the disease 0:03:16.731,0:03:18.971 we can isolate them immediately. 0:03:18.971,0:03:24.906 And those who are scared and don't trust that it's the best to wait for the contact tracer 0:03:24.906,0:03:27.900 we have to convince them and have to be very kind 0:03:27.900,0:03:32.700 so that they would like to be included in our system 0:03:32.708,0:03:34.500 and we can isolate them like that. 0:03:34.600,0:03:37.320 Now the challenge today in Liberia is that 0:03:37.320,0:03:40.280 we have six thousand contacts we are following. 0:03:40.280,0:03:42.352 and they live throughout the country 0:03:42.499,0:03:44.499 most of them here in Monrovia. 0:03:45.980,0:03:48.300 And it's far from a perfect system. 0:03:48.700,0:03:52.220 We have a leakage of patients who are not in the system 0:03:52.480,0:03:53.360 like this one 0:03:53.838,0:03:56.318 and those who we loose during the control. 0:03:56.318,0:03:57.515 But they're getting better and better. 0:03:57.515,0:03:59.173 And we need more resources 0:03:59.320,0:04:02.440 today we don't need more Ebola Treatment Units 0:04:02.820,0:04:05.460 we need more international support for 0:04:05.460,0:04:06.492 this contact tracing. 0:04:06.492,0:04:09.700 And we need people who come and stay for several months 0:04:10.300,0:04:14.273 then we can find all these contacts 0:04:14.273,0:04:16.279 and we can follow them perfectly 0:04:16.600,0:04:20.860 So somewhere in the next year 0:04:20.860,0:04:23.820 when we have made this better and better 0:04:23.820,0:04:26.800 then we may end Ebola transmission completely. 0:04:26.866,0:04:29.880 And then it also has to be done in the neighbouring countries. 0:04:29.880,0:04:33.320 That is possible, but it requires lots of resources 0:04:33.320,0:04:34.700 and lots of endurance 0:04:34.700,0:04:36.060 that we don't give up 0:04:36.060,0:04:38.020 because we have only one objective: 0:04:38.120,0:04:42.080 Ebola must go! Go all the way down to zero.