0:00:00.542,0:00:02.726
Who doesn't love efficiency?

0:00:02.750,0:00:04.018
I do.

0:00:04.042,0:00:07.393
Efficiency means more for less.

0:00:07.417,0:00:11.309
More miles per gallon,[br]more light per watt,

0:00:11.333,0:00:12.792
more words per minute.

0:00:13.917,0:00:16.393
More for less is the next best thing

0:00:16.417,0:00:17.958
to something for nothing.

0:00:19.000,0:00:24.059
Algorithms, big data, the cloud[br]are giving us more for less.

0:00:24.083,0:00:27.726
Are we heading toward[br]a friction-free utopia

0:00:27.750,0:00:30.559
or toward a nightmare of surveillance?

0:00:30.583,0:00:31.851
I don't know.

0:00:31.875,0:00:33.375
My interest is in the present.

0:00:34.208,0:00:36.309
And I'd like to show you

0:00:36.333,0:00:40.309
how the past can help us[br]understand the present.

0:00:40.333,0:00:42.976
There's nothing that summarizes

0:00:43.000,0:00:45.768
both the promise[br]and the danger of efficiency

0:00:45.792,0:00:47.768
like the humble potato.

0:00:47.792,0:00:50.309
The potato originated in the Andes

0:00:50.333,0:00:55.476
and it spread to Europe[br]from the ancient Inca.

0:00:55.500,0:01:00.250
The potato is a masterpiece[br]of balanced nutrition.

0:01:01.458,0:01:03.917
And it had some very powerful friends.

0:01:04.792,0:01:07.476
King Frederick the Great of Prussia

0:01:07.500,0:01:10.643
was the first enthusiast.

0:01:10.667,0:01:13.018
He believed that the potato could help

0:01:13.042,0:01:16.143
increase the population[br]of healthy Prussians.

0:01:16.167,0:01:19.434
And the more healthy Prussians,

0:01:19.458,0:01:22.184
the more healthy Prussian soldiers.

0:01:22.208,0:01:24.518
And some of those[br]healthy Prussian soldiers

0:01:24.542,0:01:28.333
captured a French military[br]pharmacist named Parmentier.

0:01:29.292,0:01:31.809
Parmentier, at first, was appalled

0:01:31.833,0:01:35.601
by the morning, noon and night diet

0:01:35.625,0:01:39.184
fed to POWs of potatoes,

0:01:39.208,0:01:41.184
but he came to enjoy it.

0:01:41.208,0:01:44.518
He thought they were making[br]him a healthier person.

0:01:44.542,0:01:46.309
And so, when he was released,

0:01:46.333,0:01:51.309
he took it on himself[br]to spread the potato to France.

0:01:51.333,0:01:53.809
And he had some powerful friends.

0:01:53.833,0:01:58.643
Benjamin Franklin[br]advised him to hold a banquet,

0:01:58.667,0:02:01.917
at which every dish included potatoes.

0:02:03.083,0:02:05.500
And Franklin was a guest of honor.

0:02:06.250,0:02:08.143
Even the king and queen of France

0:02:08.167,0:02:12.309
were persuaded to wear potatoes,

0:02:12.333,0:02:13.976
potato flowers, pardon me.

0:02:14.000,0:02:15.268
(Laughter)

0:02:15.292,0:02:19.768
The king wore a potato[br]flower in his lapel,

0:02:19.792,0:02:23.768
and the queen wore[br]a potato flower in her hair.

0:02:23.792,0:02:27.643
That was a truly great[br]public relations idea.

0:02:27.667,0:02:29.476
But there was a catch.

0:02:29.500,0:02:33.059
The potato was too efficient[br]for Europe's good.

0:02:33.083,0:02:35.393
In Ireland, it seemed a miracle.

0:02:35.417,0:02:38.559
Potatoes flourished, the population grew.

0:02:38.583,0:02:40.518
But there was a hidden risk.

0:02:40.542,0:02:43.851
Ireland's potatoes[br]were genetically identical.

0:02:43.875,0:02:47.643
They were a very efficient breed,[br]called the Lumper.

0:02:47.667,0:02:50.018
And the problem with the Lumper

0:02:50.042,0:02:53.893
was that a blight from South America

0:02:53.917,0:02:55.601
that affected one potato

0:02:55.625,0:02:57.000
would affect them all.

0:02:57.958,0:03:01.434
Britain's exploitation[br]and callousness played a role,

0:03:01.458,0:03:04.809
but it was because of this monoculture

0:03:04.833,0:03:07.184
that a million people died

0:03:07.208,0:03:10.750
and another two million[br]were forced to emigrate.

0:03:11.542,0:03:14.059
A plant that was supposed to end famine

0:03:14.083,0:03:16.625
created one of the most tragic ones.

0:03:17.750,0:03:19.643
The problems of efficiency today

0:03:19.667,0:03:22.184
are less drastic but more chronic.

0:03:22.208,0:03:24.184
They can also prolong the evils

0:03:24.208,0:03:25.976
that they were intended to solve.

0:03:26.000,0:03:28.268
Take the electronic medical records.

0:03:28.292,0:03:32.351
It seemed to be the answer[br]to the problem of doctors' handwriting,

0:03:32.375,0:03:33.934
and it had the benefit

0:03:33.958,0:03:37.268
of providing much better data[br]for treatments.

0:03:37.292,0:03:39.393
In practice, instead, it has meant

0:03:39.417,0:03:41.226
much more electronic paperwork

0:03:41.250,0:03:44.518
and physicians are now complaining[br]that they have less,

0:03:44.542,0:03:48.875
rather than more time[br]to see patients individually.

0:03:49.750,0:03:53.542
The obsession with efficiency[br]can actually make us less efficient.

0:03:54.292,0:03:57.518
Efficiency also bites back[br]with false positives.

0:03:57.542,0:04:01.226
Hospitals have hundreds[br]of devices registering alarms.

0:04:01.250,0:04:03.309
Too often, they're crying wolf.

0:04:03.333,0:04:05.268
It takes time to rule those out.

0:04:05.292,0:04:10.184
And that time results in fatigue,[br]stress and, once more,

0:04:10.208,0:04:13.792
the neglect of the problems[br]of real patients.

0:04:14.625,0:04:17.976
There are also false positives[br]in pattern recognition.

0:04:18.000,0:04:20.143
A school bus, viewed from the wrong angle,

0:04:20.167,0:04:22.292
can resemble a punching bag.

0:04:23.083,0:04:25.309
So precious time is required

0:04:25.333,0:04:28.268
to eliminate misidentification.

0:04:28.292,0:04:30.893
False negatives are a problem, too.

0:04:30.917,0:04:33.684
Algorithms can learn a lot -- fast.

0:04:33.708,0:04:36.476
But they can tell us only about the past.

0:04:36.500,0:04:41.601
So many future classics[br]get bad reviews, like "Moby Dick,"

0:04:41.625,0:04:43.809
or are turned down[br]by multiple publishers,

0:04:43.833,0:04:45.643
like the "Harry Potter" series.

0:04:45.667,0:04:50.018
It can be wasteful[br]to try to avoid all waste.

0:04:50.042,0:04:53.726
Efficiency is also a trap[br]when the opposition copies it.

0:04:53.750,0:04:55.893
Take the late 19th-century

0:04:55.917,0:04:58.976
French 75-millimeter artillery piece.

0:04:59.000,0:05:01.934
It was a masterpiece of lethal design.

0:05:01.958,0:05:06.184
This piece could fire a shell[br]every four seconds.

0:05:06.208,0:05:07.559
But that wasn't so unusual.

0:05:07.583,0:05:11.726
What was really brilliant[br]was that because of the recoil mechanism,

0:05:11.750,0:05:14.601
it could return to the exact same position

0:05:14.625,0:05:16.143
without having to be reaimed.

0:05:16.167,0:05:20.018
So the effective rate of firing[br]was drastically increased.

0:05:20.042,0:05:22.559
Now, this seemed to be a way for France

0:05:22.583,0:05:26.333
to defeat Germany[br]the next time they fought.

0:05:27.042,0:05:30.393
But, predictably, the Germans were working

0:05:30.417,0:05:32.059
on something very similar.

0:05:32.083,0:05:34.393
So when the First World War broke out,

0:05:34.417,0:05:37.351
the result was the trench warfare

0:05:37.375,0:05:40.809
that lasted longer[br]than anybody had expected.

0:05:40.833,0:05:45.042
A technology that was designed[br]to shorten the war, prolonged it.

0:05:46.125,0:05:49.726
The biggest cost of all[br]may be missed opportunities.

0:05:49.750,0:05:53.393
The platform economy[br]connecting buyers and sellers

0:05:53.417,0:05:54.893
can be a great investment,

0:05:54.917,0:05:57.851
and we have seen that[br]in the last few weeks.

0:05:57.875,0:06:01.434
Companies that are still losing[br]hundreds of millions of dollars

0:06:01.458,0:06:05.208
may be creating billionaires[br]with initial public offerings.

0:06:06.875,0:06:10.143
But the really difficult inventions

0:06:10.167,0:06:12.726
are the physical and chemical ones.

0:06:12.750,0:06:14.976
They mean bigger risks.

0:06:15.000,0:06:18.309
They may be losing out,[br]because hardware is hard.

0:06:18.333,0:06:22.518
It's much harder to scale up[br]a physical or chemical invention

0:06:22.542,0:06:25.250
than it is a software-based invention.

0:06:26.000,0:06:27.476
Think of batteries.

0:06:27.500,0:06:31.643
Lithium-ion batteries[br]in portable devices and electric cars

0:06:31.667,0:06:34.333
are based on a 30-year-old principle.

0:06:35.042,0:06:37.476
How many smartphone batteries today

0:06:37.500,0:06:40.792
will last a full day on a single charge?

0:06:41.542,0:06:43.167
Yes, hardware is hard.

0:06:44.583,0:06:47.559
It took over 20 years for the patent

0:06:47.583,0:06:49.934
on the principle of dry photocopying,

0:06:49.958,0:06:53.143
by Chester Carlson in 1938,

0:06:53.167,0:07:00.083
to result in the Xerox 914 copier[br]introduced in 1959.

0:07:00.958,0:07:05.934
The small, brave company,[br]Haloid in Rochester, NY

0:07:05.958,0:07:10.893
had to go through what most corporations[br]would never have tolerated.

0:07:10.917,0:07:12.726
There was one failure after another,

0:07:12.750,0:07:16.018
and one of the special problems was fire.

0:07:16.042,0:07:19.851
In fact, when the 914[br]was finally released,

0:07:19.875,0:07:24.768
it still had a device[br]that was called a scorch eliminator

0:07:24.792,0:07:29.083
but actually it was[br]a small fire extinguisher built in.

0:07:30.167,0:07:34.809
My answer to all these questions is:[br]inspired inefficiency.

0:07:34.833,0:07:38.893
Data and measurement are essential,[br]but they're not enough.

0:07:38.917,0:07:42.851
Let's leave room for human intuition[br]and human skills.

0:07:42.875,0:07:46.684
There are seven facets[br]of inspired inefficiency.

0:07:46.708,0:07:50.476
First, take the scenic route,[br]say yes to serendipity.

0:07:50.500,0:07:53.059
Wrong turns can be productive.

0:07:53.083,0:07:56.184
Once, when I was exploring[br]the east bank of the Mississippi,

0:07:56.208,0:07:58.184
I took the wrong turn.

0:07:58.208,0:08:01.893
I was approaching a toll bridge[br]crossing the great river,

0:08:01.917,0:08:05.393
and the toll collector[br]said I could not turn back.

0:08:05.417,0:08:08.851
So I paid my 50 cents --[br]that's all it was at the time --

0:08:08.875,0:08:12.184
and I was in Muscatine, Iowa.

0:08:12.208,0:08:14.101
I had barely heard of Muscatine,

0:08:14.125,0:08:17.268
but it proved to be a fascinating place.

0:08:17.292,0:08:21.601
Muscatine had some[br]of the world's richest mussel beds.

0:08:21.625,0:08:24.726
A century ago,[br]a third of the world's buttons

0:08:24.750,0:08:26.559
were produced in Muscatine,

0:08:26.583,0:08:29.143
1.5 billion a year.

0:08:29.167,0:08:31.434
The last plants have closed now,

0:08:31.458,0:08:34.976
but there is still a museum[br]of the pearl button industry

0:08:35.000,0:08:37.976
that's one of the most[br]unusual in the world.

0:08:38.000,0:08:39.809
But buttons were only the beginning.

0:08:39.833,0:08:41.726
This is the house in Muscatine

0:08:41.750,0:08:44.809
where China's future[br]president stayed in 1986,

0:08:44.833,0:08:47.518
as a member of an agricultural delegation.

0:08:47.542,0:08:50.643
It is now the Sino-US Friendship House,

0:08:50.667,0:08:53.768
and it's a pilgrimage site[br]for Chinese tourists.

0:08:53.792,0:08:55.518
How could I have foreseen that?

0:08:55.542,0:08:56.792
(Laughter)

0:08:57.958,0:09:01.601
Second, get up from the couch.

0:09:01.625,0:09:03.809
Sometimes it can be more efficient

0:09:03.833,0:09:05.393
to do things the hard way.

0:09:05.417,0:09:07.351
Consider the internet of things.

0:09:07.375,0:09:10.018
It's wonderful[br]to be able to control lights,

0:09:10.042,0:09:13.018
set the thermostat, even vacuum the room

0:09:13.042,0:09:14.893
without leaving one's seat.

0:09:14.917,0:09:17.143
But medical research has shown

0:09:17.167,0:09:20.393
that actually fidgeting,[br]getting up, walking around

0:09:20.417,0:09:23.601
is one of the best things[br]you can do for your heart.

0:09:23.625,0:09:25.708
It's good for the heart and the waistline.

0:09:26.917,0:09:29.934
Third, monetize your mistakes.

0:09:29.958,0:09:31.684
Great forms can be created

0:09:31.708,0:09:34.851
by imaginative development of accidents.

0:09:34.875,0:09:37.809
Tad Leski, an architect[br]of the Metropolitan Opera

0:09:37.833,0:09:39.101
at Lincoln Center,

0:09:39.125,0:09:43.042
was working on a sketch[br]and some white ink fell on the drawing.

0:09:44.125,0:09:47.059
Other people might just[br]have thrown it away,

0:09:47.083,0:09:51.893
but Leski was inspired[br]to produce a starburst chandelier

0:09:51.917,0:09:56.417
that was probably the most notable[br]of its kind of the 20th century.

0:09:57.292,0:10:00.184
Fourth, sometimes try the hard way.

0:10:00.208,0:10:03.559
It can be more efficient[br]to be less fluent.

0:10:03.583,0:10:06.393
Psychologists call this[br]desirable difficulty.

0:10:06.417,0:10:08.851
Taking detailed notes with a keyboard

0:10:08.875,0:10:12.309
would seem to be the best way[br]to grasp what a lecturer is saying,

0:10:12.333,0:10:15.476
to be able to review it verbatim.

0:10:15.500,0:10:19.476
However, studies have shown[br]that when we have to abbreviate,

0:10:19.500,0:10:22.559
when we have to summarize[br]what a speaker is saying,

0:10:22.583,0:10:26.976
when we're taking notes[br]with a pen or a pencil on paper,

0:10:27.000,0:10:28.976
we're processing that information.

0:10:29.000,0:10:30.851
We're making that our own,

0:10:30.875,0:10:33.184
and we are learning much more actively

0:10:33.208,0:10:36.934
than when we were just transcribing

0:10:36.958,0:10:38.809
what was being said.

0:10:38.833,0:10:41.559
Fifth, get security through diversity.

0:10:41.583,0:10:43.101
Monoculture can be deadly.

0:10:43.125,0:10:44.559
Remember the potato?

0:10:44.583,0:10:46.643
It was efficient until it wasn't.

0:10:46.667,0:10:49.208
Diversity applies to organizations, too.

0:10:50.042,0:10:55.726
Software can tell what has made people[br]in an organization succeed in the past.

0:10:55.750,0:10:58.893
And it's useful, sometimes,[br]in screening employees.

0:10:58.917,0:11:03.018
But remember, the environment[br]is constantly changing,

0:11:03.042,0:11:06.976
and software, screening software,[br]has no way to tell,

0:11:07.000,0:11:08.434
and we have no way to tell,

0:11:08.458,0:11:11.934
who is going to be useful in the future.

0:11:11.958,0:11:16.809
So, we need to supplement[br]whatever the algorithm tells us

0:11:16.833,0:11:19.726
by an intuition and by looking for people

0:11:19.750,0:11:23.226
with various backgrounds[br]and various outlooks.

0:11:23.250,0:11:27.684
Sixth, achieve safety[br]through redundancy and human skills.

0:11:27.708,0:11:31.268
Why did two 737 Max aircraft crash?

0:11:31.292,0:11:33.393
We still don't know the full story,

0:11:33.417,0:11:36.226
but we know how to[br]prevent future tragedies.

0:11:36.250,0:11:38.851
We need multiple independent systems.

0:11:38.875,0:11:42.893
If one fails, then the others[br]can override it.

0:11:42.917,0:11:46.351
We also need skilled operators[br]to come to the rescue

0:11:46.375,0:11:48.934
and that means constant training.

0:11:48.958,0:11:52.143
Seventh, be rationally extravagant.

0:11:52.167,0:11:54.851
Thomas Edison was a pioneer[br]of the film industry,

0:11:54.875,0:11:57.268
as well as of camera technology.

0:11:57.292,0:12:01.268
Nobody has done more[br]for efficiency than Thomas Edison.

0:12:01.292,0:12:03.125
But his cost cutting broke down.

0:12:03.958,0:12:06.934
His manager hired[br]a so-called efficiency engineer,

0:12:06.958,0:12:09.268
who advised him to save money

0:12:09.292,0:12:12.851
by using more of the film stock[br]that he'd shot,

0:12:12.875,0:12:14.559
having fewer retakes.

0:12:14.583,0:12:15.851
Well, Edison was a genius,

0:12:15.875,0:12:19.309
but he didn't understand[br]the new rules of feature films

0:12:19.333,0:12:24.684
and the fact that failure[br]was becoming the price of success.

0:12:24.708,0:12:28.101
On the other hand, some great directors,[br]like Erich Von Stroheim,

0:12:28.125,0:12:29.393
were the opposite.

0:12:29.417,0:12:30.809
They were superb dramatists,

0:12:30.833,0:12:34.101
and Stroheim was also a memorable actor.

0:12:34.125,0:12:36.268
But they couldn't live[br]within their budgets.

0:12:36.292,0:12:38.042
So that was not sustainable.

0:12:39.208,0:12:43.184
It was Irving Thalberg,[br]a former secretary with intuitive genius,

0:12:43.208,0:12:45.559
who achieved rational extravagance.

0:12:45.583,0:12:48.601
First at Universal, and then at MGM,

0:12:48.625,0:12:52.809
becoming the ideal[br]of the Hollywood producer.

0:12:52.833,0:12:56.101
Summing up, to be truly efficient,

0:12:56.125,0:12:58.643
we need optimal inefficiency.

0:12:58.667,0:13:01.268
The shortest path may be a curve

0:13:01.292,0:13:03.434
rather than a straight line.

0:13:03.458,0:13:05.643
Charles Darwin understood that.

0:13:05.667,0:13:07.434
When he encountered a tough problem,

0:13:07.458,0:13:09.226
he made a circuit of a trail,

0:13:09.250,0:13:12.125
the sandwalk that he'd built[br]behind his house.

0:13:12.875,0:13:16.101
A productive path[br]can be physical, like Darwin's,

0:13:16.125,0:13:19.559
or a virtual one, or an unforeseen detour

0:13:19.583,0:13:22.059
from a path we had laid out.

0:13:22.083,0:13:24.518
Too much efficiency can weaken itself.

0:13:24.542,0:13:28.976
But a bit of inspired inefficiency[br]can strengthen it.

0:13:29.000,0:13:32.976
Sometimes, the best way to move forward

0:13:33.000,0:13:34.851
is to follow a circle.

0:13:34.875,0:13:36.184
Thank you.

0:13:36.208,0:13:39.042
(Applause)