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Yogi Berra, a US baseball player
and philosopher, said,
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"If we don't know where we're going,
we might not get there."
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Accumulating scientific knowledge
is giving us greater insights,
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greater clarity into what our future
might look like in a changing climate
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and what that could mean for our health.
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I'm here to talk about a related aspect
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on how our emissions of greenhouse gases
from burning of fossil fuels
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is reducing the nutritional
quality of our food.
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We'll start with the food pyramid.
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You all know the food pyramid.
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We all need to eat a balanced diet.
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We need to get proteins.
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We need to get micronutrients.
We need to get vitamins.
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And so this is way for us
to think about how to make sure
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we get what we need every day
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so we can grow and thrive.
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So we eat not just because we need to,
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we also eat for enjoyment.
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Bread, pasta, pizza,
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there's a whole range of foods
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that are culturally important.
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We enjoy eating these.
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And so they're important for our diet,
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but they're also important
for our cultures.
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Carbon dioxide has been increasing since
the start of the Industrial Revolution,
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increasing from about
280 parts per million to over 410 today,
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and it continues to increase.
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The carbon that plants need to grow
comes from this carbon dioxide.
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They bring it into the plant,
they break it apart
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into the carbon itself,
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and they use that to grow.
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They also need nutrients from the soil.
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And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.
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And this should be good news,
of rising carbon dioxide concentrations,
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for food security around the world,
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making sure that people
get enough to eat every day.
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About 820 million people in the world
don't get enough to eat every day.
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So there's a fair amount written
about how higher CO2
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is going to help with
our food security problem.
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We need to accelerate our progress
in agricultural productivity,
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to feed the nine to 10 billion people
who will be alive in 2050
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and to achieve the Sustainable
Development Goals,
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particularly the Goal Number 2,
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that is on reducing food insecurity,
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increasing nutrition,
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increasing access to the foods
that we need for everyone.
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We know that climate change
is affecting agricultural productivity.
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The Earth has warmed
about one degree Centigrade
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since pre-industrial times.
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That is changing local temperature
and precipitation patterns,
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and that has consequences
for the agricultural productivity
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in many parts of the world.
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And it's not just local changes
in temperature and precipitation,
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it's the extremes,
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Extremes in terms of heat waves,
floods and droughts
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are significantly affecting productivity.
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And that carbon dioxide,
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besides making plants grow,
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has other consequences as well,
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that plants when they have
higher carbon dioxide,
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increase the synthesis of carbohydrates,
sugars and starches,
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and they decrease the concentrations
of protein and critical nutrients,
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and this is very important for how we
think about food security going forward.
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A couple of nights ago
in the table talks on climate change,
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someone said that they're
a five-seventh optimist,
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that they're an optimist
five days of the week,
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and this is a topic for other two days.
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When we think about micronutrients,
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almost all of them are affected
by higher CO2 concentrations.
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Two in particular are iron and zinc.
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When you don't have enough iron,
you can develop iron deficiency anemia.
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It's associated with fatigue,
shortness of breath,
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and some fairly serious
consequences as well.
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When you don't have enough zinc,
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you can have a loss of appetite.
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It is a significant
problem around the world.
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There's about one billion people
who are zinc-deficient.
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It's very important
for maternal and child health.
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It affects development.