How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?
-
0:00 - 0:03[How can we control
the coronavirus pandemic?] -
0:03 - 0:05[From infectious disease expert
Adam Kucharski] -
0:06 - 0:09[Question 1: What does containment mean
when it comes to outbreaks?] -
0:09 - 0:13Containment is this idea
that you can focus your effort on control -
0:13 - 0:15very much on the cases and their contacts.
-
0:15 - 0:18So you're not causing disruption
to the wider population, -
0:18 - 0:21you have a case that comes in,
you isolate them, -
0:21 - 0:23you work out who they've come
into contact with, -
0:23 - 0:26who's potentially these
opportunities for exposure -
0:26 - 0:28and then you can follow up those people,
-
0:28 - 0:32maybe quarantine them, to make sure
that no further transmission happens. -
0:32 - 0:34So it's a very focused, targeted method,
-
0:34 - 0:37and for SARS, it worked remarkably well.
-
0:37 - 0:39But I think for this infection,
-
0:39 - 0:43because some cases are going to be missed,
or undetected, -
0:43 - 0:46you've really got to be capturing
a large chunk of people at risk. -
0:46 - 0:48If a few slip through the net,
-
0:48 - 0:50potentially, you're going
to get an outbreak. -
0:50 - 0:53[Question 2: If containment
isn't enough, what comes next?] -
0:53 - 0:55In that respect,
-
0:55 - 0:58it would be about massive changes
in our social interactions. -
0:58 - 1:00And so that would require,
-
1:00 - 1:02of the opportunities
that could spread the virus -
1:02 - 1:04so these kind of close contacts,
-
1:04 - 1:07everybody in the population, on average,
-
1:07 - 1:10will be needing to reduce
those interactions -
1:10 - 1:12potentially by two-thirds
to bring it under control. -
1:12 - 1:15That might be through working from home,
-
1:15 - 1:17from changing lifestyle
-
1:17 - 1:20and kind of where you go
in crowded places and dinners. -
1:21 - 1:24And of course, these measures,
things like school closures, -
1:24 - 1:26and other things
that just attempt to reduce -
1:26 - 1:28the social mixing of a population.
-
1:28 - 1:32[Question 3: What are the risks
that we need people to think about?] -
1:32 - 1:34It's not just whose hand you shake,
-
1:34 - 1:36it's whose hand that person
goes on to shake. -
1:36 - 1:39And I think we need to think
about these second-degree steps, -
1:39 - 1:41that you might think you have low risk
-
1:41 - 1:42and you're in a younger group,
-
1:43 - 1:46but you're often going to be
a very short step away -
1:46 - 1:48from someone who is going to get hit
very hard by this. -
1:48 - 1:51And I think we really need
to be socially minded -
1:51 - 1:54and think this could be quite dramatic
in terms of change of behavior, -
1:54 - 1:56but it needs to be
-
1:56 - 1:58to reduce the impact
that we're potentially facing. -
1:58 - 2:02[Question 4: How far apart
should people stay from each other?] -
2:02 - 2:04I think it's hard to pin down exactly,
-
2:04 - 2:08but I think one thing to bear in mind
is that there's not so much evidence -
2:08 - 2:10that this is a kind of aerosol
and it goes really far -- -
2:10 - 2:12it's reasonably short distances.
-
2:12 - 2:13I don't think it's the case
-
2:13 - 2:16that you're sitting a few meters
away from someone -
2:16 - 2:19and the virus is somehow
going to get across. -
2:19 - 2:21It's in closer interactions,
-
2:21 - 2:24and it's why we're seeing
so many transmission events -
2:24 - 2:27occur in things like meals
and really tight-knit groups. -
2:27 - 2:29Because if you imagine
-
2:29 - 2:32that's where you can get
a virus out and onto surfaces -
2:32 - 2:33and onto hands and onto faces,
-
2:33 - 2:37and it's really situations like that
we've got to think more about. -
2:38 - 2:40[Question 5: What kind
of protective measures -
2:40 - 2:42should countries put in place?]
-
2:42 - 2:44I think that's what people
are trying to piece together, -
2:44 - 2:46first in terms of what works.
-
2:47 - 2:50It's only really in the last
sort of few weeks -
2:50 - 2:53we've got a sense that this thing
can be controllable -
2:53 - 2:54with this extent of interventions,
-
2:54 - 2:57but of course, not all countries
can do what China have done, -
2:57 - 2:58some of these measures
-
2:58 - 3:02incur a huge social, economic,
psychological burden -
3:02 - 3:03on populations.
-
3:04 - 3:06And of course, there's the time limit.
-
3:06 - 3:08In China, they've had them in
for six weeks, -
3:08 - 3:10it's tough to maintain that,
-
3:10 - 3:11so we need to think of these tradeoffs
-
3:11 - 3:14of all the things we can ask people to do,
-
3:14 - 3:18what's going to have the most impact
on actually reducing the burden. -
3:18 - 3:21[To learn more, visit: Centers
for Disease Control and Prevention] -
3:21 - 3:23[World Health Organization]
- Title:
- How can we control the coronavirus pandemic?
- Speaker:
- Adam Kucharski
- Description:
-
As the threat of COVID-19 continues, infectious disease expert and TED Fellow Adam Kucharski answers five key questions about the novel coronavirus, providing necessary perspective on its transmission, how governments have responded and what might need to change about our social behavior to end the pandemic. (This video is excerpted from a 70-minute interview between Kucharski and head of TED Chris Anderson. Listen to the full interview at http://go.ted.com/adamkucharski. Recorded March 11, 2020)
- Video Language:
- English
- Team:
- closed TED
- Project:
- TEDTalks
- Duration:
- 03:37
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | ||
Brian Greene edited English subtitles for How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | ||
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Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? | ||
Krystian Aparta edited English subtitles for How can we control the coronavirus pandemic? |