Designing lucid hopes for the future | Arthur Keller | TEDxToulouse

Arthur Keller sketches a global analysis of the limits and risks facing mankind, with the objective to characterize our challenges and the relevant responses possible.

After debunking a number of ideas about the nature of this century's issues and demonstrating that most present "solutions" are irrelevant, he details a strategy to better prepare for the future and introduces motivating prospects for a viable and decent world. He is a specialist in the vulnerabilities of industrial societies and resilience strategies, a consultant and a coach in storytelling as a mean for collective transformation and mobilization. He has written many proposals for a systemic transition toward resilient societies.

This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community. Learn more at http://ted.com/tedx

Please join me for a collective awakening.

It's a vital awakening,
as you are about to see.

For the past ten years, I’ve been doing
multidisciplinary foresight work

on the vulnerabilities
of modern societies.

In a nutshell,

I analyze the systemic issues
faced by mankind,

and I develop proposals
to deal with these issues

by phasing out false good ideas -

those that cannot work -

i.e. nearly all the so-called
solutions we hear about.

Let me share my analysis.

You'll see why I have trouble
finding sleep at night.

I will start by describing
the main challenges faced by mankind.

Then, I will explain
why the strategies available

to address climate change

as well as challenges regarding
energy, resources or food security

are intrinsically unfit

because they miss the main problem.

Then I’ll make some suggestions

to hopefully inspire positive
and meaningful change

both in terms of thinking and action.

We live in artificial settings
that we’ve built for ourselves.

These are urban landscapes mostly,
which hide nature from us.

They may also be socio-cultural
and ideological settings

that numb our link to nature.

Backstage is a burning hell
for all forms of life,

which struggle to survive us.

I would like to illustrate
how our civilization is a mega-machine

that annihilates the living world.

We have the choice to either stop it

or end up destroying ourselves
and a myriad of species altogether.

This self-destruction process
could be imminent

considering the vulnerabilities
of our societies.

Our communities are polarized

between those who understand

that our world has reached
its physical limits

and that we need
to redefine our behaviors,

and those who reject
the very idea of limits,

without having studied the issue -

either they deny the world's limits,

or they admit their existence

but believe there are no limits
to man's ability to solve problems.

Such unconditional faith
is a form of denial.

Believing that solutions can be found,

thus maintaining the system
instead of changing it,

means to try to sustain the unsustainable.

The question of our societies' limits
and vulnerabilities is not ideological.

It is not a matter of personal opinion
or intuition either.

The truth is,

systems scientists,

experts in infrastructure resilience,

specialists in biogeochemical
cycles and ecologists

teach us that the world is a complex
system governed by feedback loops,

threshold effects,
domino effects, rebound effects,

and that due to its exponential dynamics,
we have a timing issue:

strategies from 20 years ago
are no longer relevant.

In fact, we're already too late
for any kind of sustainable development.

And no strategy will lead
to viable and enviable prospects

until we consider the problem
for what it is:

a defect in our model of civilization.

Now let us visualize that

through a systemic analysis
of the situation.

The natural world consists of six spheres.

The first one is the lithosphere,
the rigid shell of the Earth,

from which we get hydrocarbons

that are vital to our
industrial civilization,

as well as metals including
rare earths, building sand,

or vital nutrients such as phosphorus.

And all of these are reaching limits.

Sometimes it's a matter of stock,
more often it's a matter of flow:

are we able to secure the supply -
especially of oil -

our societies depend upon to function?

The second sphere is the hydrosphere,

all the water of the planet:

oceans, seas, lakes, rivers, groundwater.

It is in an advanced state of degradation:

pollution,

plastics and other wastes,

acidification, warming,
sea level rise, salinization,

drought, dead zones -

all the warning lights are flashing red.

Third sphere is the cryosphere,
the frozen water part of the Earth:

sea ice, ice sheets, glaciers, permafrost.

Breaking news:

it is melting!

Faster and faster.

The fourth sphere is the atmosphere.

Its chemical composition changes so fast
that the water and carbon cycles,

which sustain life on Earth,
are totally out of whack.

Weather patterns have become erratic,

not to mention the multiple forms
of gas and particle pollution.

Fifth sphere is the biosphere,
all life on Earth.

A dreadful tragedy is unfolding
in the backstage of our pretty settings.

If you exclude mankind and farm animals,

60% of all vertebrates
have vanished in 44 years.

Vertebrates!

i.e terrestrial and marine mammals,

amphibians, fish, reptiles and birds.

Can't we hear Nature's agonizing scream?

Let us be clear.

Living beings do not vanish into thin air:

we are exterminating them
with our ways of life!

I am not pointing fingers;
I am merely stating a fact.

The sixth and last sphere
is the pedosphere, the soil.

75% of the planet’s land
are in critical condition

due to intensive farming practices,

urbanization

or industrial activities,
especially mining.

And lately, the United Nations warned us
of a global food shortage threat.

This is the state of the natural world
as we observe it.

You see why I sleep poorly.

Now, there’s a seventh sphere,
the anthroposphere:

mankind, human activities
and human output -

buildings, objects, products, waste.

The anthroposphere is mushrooming,

an exponential boom that results
in the human ecological footprint -

the pressure we put on our planet -

exceeding what the planet can withstand.

The question is,

Can our societies last

when everywhere we look,

nature is collapsing
or has reached its limits?

No, they cannot.

We face a great energy
and material descent

that will be made worse
by logistic breakdowns and shortages.

We must get ready,

learn to live in balance with nature.

We belong to it.

If we believe we're invulnerable
and thus remain unprepared,

collapses will soon occur
all around the world -

chaotic processes at the end of which

we will be forced to ensure
our needs by ourselves.

To get a full picture
of our vulnerabilities,

let me add four ingredients.

One:

all our activities require
the continuous operation

of just-in-time supply chains
that we do not control ourselves

and that depend on transportation systems,
96% of which run on oil.

If you think that food,
energy or health security

are provided by the state
or local authorities, think again.

In the event of a lasting supply break,

we’re on our own.

Two: we rely on infrastructures -

transport, water, gas, electricity
and telecom networks

that need a constant supply
of materials and energy

for proper operation and maintenance.

Three: we’ve technologized the world,

and in doing so, we’ve optimized it

but we've made it
more complex and fragile.

From now on, we are vulnerable
to supply-chain breaks,

power failures,

hackers, cyberterrorists, and so forth.

And four,

the icing on the "quake":

we are at the mercy
of unstable stock markets.

Our whole world is submitted
to a short-termistic financial system,

which is the polar opposite
of the common good.

So,

what do we do now?

Do we demand action from decision makers?

It's a lost cause.

Even if they actually wanted to act,

their solutions are inadequate!

To illustrate this,
let’s ponder on climate change -

the one issue that mobilizes
the international community.

Each year there's a UN summit,

billions are invested,
there’s a carbon market,

we're coming up with innovations -
cleantech, greentech, smartech -

there are energy transitions
all around the world, and ...

there's not the slightest reduction
in greenhouse gas emissions.

None!

None.

Why?

First of all, because we strive
for economic growth,

thereby increasing our footprint.

On a global scale, there is no decoupling
between GDP and greenhouse gas emissions.

But above all -
this is the crux of my point -

even if we did manage to avoid
cataclysmic climate disruption

by decarbonizing civilization,

we still wouldn’t prevent
a widespread collapse.

Because our solutions are inadequate.

Because we treat
climate change as a problem

even though it is not one;

it’s a symptom!

Let’s model the situation.

Upstream, we extract resources.

Next, we transform them
into goods and services.

Downstream,
we dump pollution and waste.

These are solid, liquid or gaseous,

and among those gases,
we find the greenhouse gases.

Climate change
is just one of many side effects

of the fact that this civilization is
an irreversible, uncircularizable flow

that converts nature into waste.

Thus, using energy - even carbon free -
to power our civilization

means that we maintain the flow that
mutilates the living conditions on Earth.

To work, the energy transition
must consist in reducing that flow,

and above all, it must be one element
among a vast array of strategies

designed to deal with the root causes,

i.e. transform civilization itself.

I am aware that it is hard to conceive
our visions of the future are obsolete.

It doesn't help me sleep.

But either we open a conversation
to decide together what should be guarded,

what should change,
what should be stopped

and what could be created,

and we may still be able to build
a sustainable and decent future,

or we fail to prepare,

and these choices will be forced upon us
under the pretense of security

in highly repressive circumstances.

The moment of choice is now -
like it or not.

Not tomorrow, now.

We wake up or we break down.

So I ask again, What do we do now?

Well, we keep hope.

But not just any hope.

Not the naive hope

that they are going to solve the problem.

Not the hope to perpetuate
this toxic, decaying civilization,

but the hope to invent
new ways of living in the world.

We need to deconstruct false hopes

so as to design lucid ones!

But the system is locked,
which precludes top-down solutions.

We need to act from the bottom up.

It’s up to us!

C'est la vie!
It is our responsibility.

We are all responsible for the future

even if not guilty for the past.

Our choices are going to define us.

Shall we be the ones
who stand up for this cause

that impacts all the other causes?

Or shall we be the ones
who wash their hands of it?

Let us not give in to resignation,

despair or defeatism!

Tomorrow will be what we make of it.

And the good news is -
I’m getting there at last -

that there are numerous
constructive ways to take action.

Two major endeavors must be undertaken:

a revolution in our thinking
and an awakening of our actions.

Endeavor number one:

to decolonize and renew our imagination.

This is sphere number eight,
the sphere of ideas.

First off, let's marshal our creativity
to craft inspiring counter-narratives

able to supersede the mighty
sky-is-the-limit narrative,

which is a ludicrous scam

that can only generate oppression

and doom us to unhealthy
cognitive dissonance.

We all need to grasp
that there's no incompatibility,

no rivalry between social
and ecological struggles

that both can and must
strengthen each other.

It is time we founded new cultures
based on other hierarchies of values.

I know this may sound abstract,

but in fact, nearly everything
we need already exists:

agroecology, agroforestry, permaculture,

no-till farming, gardening on living soil,
local supply chains, housing co-ops,

reappropriation
of the commons by citizens -

air, water, land or seeds -

local currencies, local exchange
trading systems, low-tech, etc.

There is so much we can do
to live better and sustainably.

Inquire about it, get some training,
transform yourself!

These learning experiences
require some effort,

but they're deeply liberating.

And from now on, whatever we undertake
let's ask ourselves,

Does it help reinvigorate
nature and human bonds?

This question must become a reflex.

Ask yourself this question.

Besides renewing our imagination,

the second major endeavor
is about what we do.

It's sphere number nine,
the sphere of action.

There are two complementary
kinds of actions:

resistance and resilience.

First of all, let’s tear down
our deceptive settings

and organize resistance
against the mega-machine.

Small steps and daily good deeds
are all very well,

but we are way beyond that.

Stopping the destruction

and the staggering violence
of our civilization

is an act of self-defense
as much as an ethical question.

Mobilization on all fronts,

civil disobedience:

the future needs each and every one of us
to take emblematic action.

Whether activism is your thing or not,
it's time to wake up and fight!

This is a war.

All this must be in sharp contrast
with your everyday experience,

yet I am not being dogmatic or excessive.

In fact, this is a moderate point of view
among natural scientists.

It’s our world's backstage that’s extreme!

At this point, the proportional response
to the issues at stake

is to mobilize with determination!

Together, let’s halt harmful activities
and insane projects.

Let's stop the perverted or greedy elites,

big business, banks, law firms,

lobbies that serve private interests
at the expense of the public good.

We must say "No more!" to these things.

If we don’t,

who will?

It’s up to us to reverse
the balance of power,

to become architects of the machine
and no longer mere cogs in it.

From now on, the role of states
and decision-makers

should be to facilitate
resilience initiatives.

What would be a good leader today?

It would be a visionary
able to gather citizens

around an inspiring, coherent
public-interest project for the future.

These first elements set up
the dynamic for resistance.

Then, there is resilience,

showing that we can live
differently yet well,

without relying on supply chains
from the other side of the planet,

on capital-intensive industrial systems

or on highly sophisticated
technical devices.

Living and working with nature
without trying to dominate it,

with respect.

Sparking sustainable cohesion.

Becoming collectively less fragile
in the face of limits.

Let us establish new societies
in parallel with this insane system,

communities designed
to take over tomorrow,

freed from the race for ever more,

able to limit themselves
with unity and dignity.

Let’s build inspiring alternatives.

Here's a quick advice.

If you think you can become
self-sufficient on your own

or build some isolated, self-sufficient
community with stockpiles

and a martial culture maybe,

it won't hold up in the long run
even if you’re wealthy;

instead, take inspiration
from the "Transition Towns" movement.

It's not enough,
but it’s a good starting point.

Besides, do not underestimate
the risk of insecurity.

You need to catalyze constructive
dynamics of cooperation, in networks.

Resilience is collective by definition.

Instead of scattered islets,

you need archipelagos connected
to each other in solidarity

to make regions resilient,

i.e. able to cope with the energy
and material descent

while guaranteeing decent
living conditions for everyone.

Whoever you are,

contribute in your own way.

Do you have free time or money?

Give some of it to fund
ecological restoration projects.

Do you own land?

Lend it for initiatives
that prepare for a post-oil era.

Are you an elected official?

Open your territory to social-ecological
transition projects.

People will get organized;
you don't have to do anything.

Just make it easier for them.

Are you an executive?

Shift your company by designing
a truly sustainable business model!

Employees and employers
should design together

meaningful long-term projects!

Are you a teacher?

Prepare students for resilience
rather than for a job market

that will have completely changed
within a few years.

And so forth.

There is so much one can do.

It is time to unleash
a swell of resilience initiatives.

And it's up to us.

A new civilization project must arise.

And it all starts from us!

Do not let it intimidate you.

Be bold because great,
beautiful moments are coming up

if we overcome denial, hypocrisy

and our delusive settings.

If we work together
with dignity and resolve,

we can still make the forces of life
prevail against the forces of death.

Before I wrap up,
a word of caution about technology -

given that we are
among tech enthusiasts here.

Technology fascinates us,
yes, but it's a tool,

which benefits us if it empowers us

and does not turn us into junkies

if it contributes
to decomplexify the world

instead of adding complexity

and making us dependent and vulnerable.

Complexity leads to perplexity.

Perspicacity suggests simplicity.

On an oversaturated planet,

technology only makes sense
in the service of a higher cause:

the inception of new ways of life
that are protective

and no longer exploitative of nature.

Renewal of our imagination,
resistance, resilience.

It’s all there.

It is the key.

After this talk, if you don't know
how to get started,

here’s my advice - it applies to anyone.

As soon as possible,
foster conversations around you,

in your community or neighborhood,

with your friends or coworkers:

face-to-face gatherings
to discuss together

limits and vulnerabilities,

resources and your precious
local cultural diversity.

You will realize that other people
also worry and care,

and together you will find answers
to the question you must ask from now on:

what can we do to revitalize
our community and nature

and to tend towards
local self-sufficiency?

Do all of this,

and you shall spark lucid hopes.

Incidentally,

I might sleep better

and so will everyone else, I guess.

Thank you.

(Applause)