The case for having kids

The global fertility rate, or the number of children per woman, has halved over the last 50 years. What will having fewer babies mean for the future of humanity? In this funny, eye-opening talk, journalist (and self-described exhausted dad) Wajahat Ali examines how the current trend could lead to unexpected problems -- and shares why he believes we need to make it easier for people to have babies. "For those who can and choose to, may you pass on this beautiful thing called life with kindness, generosity, decency and love," he says.

I'm an exhausted dad.

Currently owned and dominated
by two mini dictators,

who rule my life with an iron fist
while wearing their Huggies diapers.

(Laughter)

Now probably because I've been
drowning in small people lately,

I've been paying close attention
to a particular headline.

It seems around the world,
in developed countries,

people are having fewer babies.

From North America to Europe
to China to Japan,

there's actually been
a consistent decline in birth rates.

In fact, over the past 50 years,

the global fertility rate has halved.

What the heck is going on?

Now, my friends who don't want kids,

all point to climate change
as a reason for never having babies.

And many of you are sitting there
right now, saying,

"Waj, there's also overpopulation,

there's also high birth rates,

which still exist in many African
and Middle Eastern countries,

there's also orphan kids
who still need parents,

there's also a lack of resources
to go around for everyone,

and oh, by the way,

we have a ginormous carbon footprint
that is destroying this planet.

I hear you, I hear you.

And yet, despite all this chaos,

I still think we should have babies.

I believe we can and should
fight for the earth and humanity,

side by side.

Now, if I could take it
personal for a second,

I get it, I get why some of you
might be skeptical about having babies.

Here's a photo of my wife and me
before we had kids.

Young, happy, fresh.

(Laughter)

Here's a photo of me after having kids.

A broken, defeated husk of a man.

(Laughter)

Here's the photo of the car
I thought I'd be driving as an adult.

A Porsche.

Here's what I actually drive.

A Honda Odyssey minivan.

(Laughter)

(Applause)

For the minivan.

Where there was once hope,
now there is convenient space,

and good mileage, good mileage.

Now, I just want to stress

that I'm completely aware
of the very dire threats

of global warming and climate change.

I just want to acknowledge
that choosing to have babies

is a deeply, profoundly personal choice.

And that many who want to are unable.

But just for today, let's examine
the flip side of the coin.

At how not having enough new people

is going to be a major problem
moving forward.

According to the World
Health Organization,

we need to average about
2.1 children per woman today

just so we have enough people
to replace the previous generation.

A lot of you thought overpopulation
was going to be a problem in 100 years --

yeah, it might be underpopulation.

So a question:

what happens if that number
dips below 2.1?

There's going to be a domino effect.

As all of us get older, and live longer,

there's going to be a shrinking
younger population,

which is going to lead
to rising labor shortages

in the world's biggest economies.

I'm talking about United States,
China, Japan, Germany.

Fewer younger working people
means less tax revenue.

Less tax revenue
means less money and resources

to go to safety net programs
that all of us are going to depend upon.

I'm talking about pensions
and health care.

It seems every generation
is indeed connected.

But how the heck did we get here
in the first place?

Well, in some cases, it was intentional.

Let's take the DeLorean to simpler times.

Let's stop in China.

Somewhere between the death of disco
and "Empire Strikes Back" -- 1980.

In 1980, China decided to implement
the one-child policy,

largely limiting most parents
to having just one kid

to combat overpopulation.

Check out some good old-fashioned
Chinese propaganda, lovely.

Now, fast-forward to 2019.

Even after ending
its one-child policy in 2015,

China's birth rates have largely declined.

In fact, the falling population in China

is removing one of its biggest
drivers of growth -- people.

If trends continue,

China's population
is actually going to peak in 2029,

before entering "unstoppable decline."

China's government
is so freaked out right now

that it's actually doing new propaganda --

it's begging couples
to have children for the country.

Let's take the DeLorean
and hop over to Japan,

home of my beloved Honda Odyssey minivan.

(Laughter)

Japan is now producing more
adult diapers than infant ones.

The number of kids in Japan
has fallen for the 37th straight year.

And unlike other countries,

it has not been able to replace
its population numbers

through immigrant workers.

There will be labor shortages

and not enough money to fund
the safety-net programs.

Now, Japan has introduced two solutions.

First, a financial incentive.

Some local governments in Japan
have offered couples money to have babies,

with the money increasing
with each additional child being born.

This actually worked for one year in 2014
in this town called Ama.

It actually raised the birth rate
from about 1.66 kids per woman to 1.8.

But it did not gain traction across Japan.

In 2018, a leader of Japan's
ruling party tried a new tack.

He told young people,

"You're selfish for not having babies."

Shockingly, shaming was not
a rousing aphrodisiac.

Surprise, I know, surprise.

Who would have thought?

(Laughter)

Let's take the DeLorean to Europe,

the continent of delicious cheeses
I love to eat but cannot pronounce.

The UK and much of Western Europe

has a birth rate of about
1.7 kids per woman,

which at least is better than Hungary,
where it hovers around 1.45.

Now, Hungary's prime minister Viktor Orbán

has proposed a new solution
to try to incentivize people to have kids.

He said families where the women
have four or more kids

will no longer pay income tax.

Pretty good, right, pretty good.

At least it's better
than Russia's 2007 proposal,

which once offered women
in a particular region

the opportunity of winning a fridge
if they had more kids.

(Laughter)

Yeah, it didn't work, it didn't work.

But hold on, pump the brakes.

Orbán is primarily proposing this
because he wants to limit

the population of Muslims
and people of color.

He says he doesn't think Hungary's
traditions and culture and color

has to be "mixed with those of others."

Subtle.

Unfortunately for Orbán,
and much of the EU,

the birth rates are not
high enough right now

to be replenished without immigration.

Among EU countries,
there is a demographic decline.

So it seems, in Europe, karma
is going to be brown and Muslim.

(Laughter) (Applause)

Just saying.

The question remains:

Why aren't people having enough kids?

Why is the birth rate declining
in these countries?

In some cases,

it's because women
are more literate, more educated.

They have more economic
opportunities -- applaud.

All good things, all good things, yes.

(Applause)

In India, this has been fantastic,

it has actually reduced the birth rate
but kept it above that magic 2.1 number.

Women also have
more access to birth control,

more control over
their reproductive lives,

all good things.

But in the United States, in particular,

a lot of young people
are opting out of having kids,

largely cite the same reason:

financial concerns.

Let's take the DeLorean to my motherland,
the United States of America,

where the birth rate
hit its historic low in 2017.

The United States is the most expensive
country in the world

to give birth.

If you do not have insurance,

it will cost you 32,000 dollars
to have a baby,

if everything goes perfectly.

That's like buying a brand new
Honda Odyssey minivan, OK?

So, congratulations, you just had a baby,

but the baby's economic productivity
is zero, and guess what?

The United States is the only
industrialized country in the world

that does not require employers
to offer paid parental leave.

"Mom, you just had a baby,
congratulations, that's lovely.

Get back to work
or you're fired, young mom!"

My wife and I, both working parents,

pay about 3,500 dollars a month --
a month -- in Virginia for childcare.

If you do the math,
that's 40,000 dollars a year.

That's like buying a brand new,
souped-up, Honda Odyssey minivan, OK.

I have one, I do not need 10.

So here's my bold suggestion.

Let's make it easier
for people to have babies.

It seems in order to invest in our future,
we actually have to invest in the present

and help those people
who want to become parents.

Give them affordable health care,

give them affordable childcare,

give them paid parental leave.

Among the EU states in 2017,
France reported the highest birth rates.

Why?

Largely due to its pronatal policies

that actually kept women in the workforce.

I'm talking about subsidized daycare
and paid maternal leave.

China and Japan, thank God,
are finally wisening up

and proposing such policies.

This is great.

That being said, I know
some of you have listened to me

and you still think the best investment
we can make in the future

is not having babies.

I respect that.

I get where you're coming from.

And I know many of you in this audience
want to have babies

but you are terrified about the future.

And as a parent, I feel you.

I'm scared about the future.

I wrote that last line a month ago.

But it really hit home
three days ago for me,

while I was at TED.

Three days ago, my wife calls me, crying.

I pick it up in my hotel room.

And she said, "I'm calling
from the hospital."

We had to take my baby daughter Nusayba,

who was named after a warrior princess,

to the hospital, because she found
a bump on the stomach.

We got back the results,
and there were bumps all around her liver.

Today, this morning, we found out
that she has stage IV liver cancer.

(Audience gasps)

It has been a challenging week.

It has been a challenging week.

And if I may, I just want to take a moment

to acknowledge the TED staff,
everyone, top-down,

everyone in the back, in the green room,
some of the speakers, word has spread.

On behalf of my family, my wife,

and my parents -- my Pakistani parents
said I had to say this --

thank you for just being decent
and kind this week.

So thank you.

(Applause)

These are my beloveds,
my Ibrahim and Nusayba, my babies.

I talked to my wife,

and despite the terrible news
and the fight ahead,

we both concluded that we regret nothing.

Deciding to have babies
was the best decision we ever made.

Our babies have brought us so much joy
and they've brought the world so much joy,

and having kids is a risk,
but life is a risk.

And yes, I hope you've been
paying attention,

we need to invest in babies
in developed countries

if we want to help save
our economy and pensions.

But that's not the reason you have babies.

That's not the main reason.

Babies have always represented

humanity's best, boldest,
most beautiful infinite possibilities.

And if we in developed countries,

as a whole, opt out,

and don't invest in present
and future generations,

then what the hell's the point?

What's the point of being
on this absurd journey together?

And so, for those who can
and who choose to,

for those who can
and who choose to have kids,

may you pass on
this beautiful thing called life,

with kindness, generosity,

decency and love.

Thank you.

(Applause)