Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy
-
0:03 - 0:09This is a film about
the power of central banks. -
0:10 - 0:14Central Banks have
the power to create -
0:14 - 0:20economic, political and
social change. -
0:20 - 0:25This is how they do it…
-
0:29 - 0:34Pearl Harbor - 7th December 1941
-
0:51 - 0:57A film based on a book
by Professor Richard Werner -
0:59 - 1:03Long live the imperial army.
-
1:17 - 1:20Princes of the Yen
-
1:20 - 1:26Central Banks and
the Transformation of the Economy -
1:40 - 1:42I pledge allegiance
-
1:42 - 1:46to the flag of the
United States of America. -
1:53 - 1:55The atom bomb.
-
2:14 - 2:19The American Occupation
-
2:21 - 2:25LOUDSPEAKER: We will arrive at
Yokohama at 09:30 hours, -
2:26 - 2:29debarkation priority will be
in accordance with -
2:30 - 2:32the debarkation schedule.
-
2:36 - 2:40General Douglas MacArthur arrived
at Atsugi Naval Aerodrome, -
2:41 - 2:45near Yokohama, on August 30, 1945.
-
2:47 - 2:50As he emerged from his aircraft,
-
2:50 - 2:52he paused at the top of the steps,
-
2:52 - 2:55stuck one hand in his hip pockets,
-
2:55 - 2:58tightened his jaws around
his corncob pipe, -
2:58 - 3:01and surveyed the conquered lands.
-
3:03 - 3:08This pose was repeated several times
from different angles, -
3:08 - 3:13so that all the press photographers
could get a decent shot. -
3:16 - 3:20Democracy was to be instilled
in the Japanese people, -
3:20 - 3:24as though
they had never heard of it. -
3:24 - 3:28NEWS: Our problem’s in the brain
inside of the Japanese head, -
3:28 - 3:32these brains like our brains
can do good things, -
3:33 - 3:34or bad things,
-
3:35 - 3:39all depending on the kind of
ideas that are put inside. -
3:44 - 3:47Kabuki plays featuring loyal samurai
-
3:47 - 3:50were banned or heavily censored,
-
3:51 - 3:57as were books and films about the
bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. -
3:57 - 3:59Satirical cartoons of MacArthur
-
3:59 - 4:04and mention of occupation censorship
were strictly forbidden. -
4:06 - 4:09WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL: The commission
finds you guilty as charged -
4:10 - 4:13and sentences you
to death by hanging. -
4:13 - 4:19NEWS: Yamashita thanked the commission
for the fairness of his trial. -
4:19 - 4:22Prime Minister at the time of
the war in the Pacific, -
4:22 - 4:24General Tojo,
-
4:24 - 4:26remarked during his trial,
-
4:26 - 4:31“none of those Japanese, would dare
act against the Emperor’s will.” -
4:31 - 4:35The cross-examination
was immediately cut short, -
4:35 - 4:38and a week later
Tojo dutifully stated -
4:39 - 4:43that the Emperor had always loved
and wanted peace. -
4:43 - 4:45NEWS: General Hideki Tojo,
-
4:46 - 4:50who assumed official responsibility
for the conduct of the war -
4:50 - 4:53and did everything possible
to exonerate his emperor. -
4:53 - 4:57MacArthur would later remark
to the U.S Senate, -
4:57 - 5:00that in terms of modern civilization
-
5:00 - 5:04the Japanese were like
a 12-year-old boy. -
5:12 - 5:14You are interested in the unknown,
-
5:15 - 5:17the mysterious, the unexplainable,
-
5:17 - 5:20that is why you are here.
-
5:21 - 5:23When the war was over
-
5:23 - 5:27bank’s loan books had deteriorated.
-
5:27 - 5:30The assets the banks held
were mainly war bonds -
5:30 - 5:33and loans to destroyed industries.
-
5:33 - 5:38As such the whole banking sector
was virtually bankrupt. -
5:40 - 5:44This problem was easily solved by
the Bank of Japan, -
5:44 - 5:45all it had to do
-
5:46 - 5:48was buy the banking sector’s
bad papers -
5:49 - 5:51with newly created reserves.
-
5:51 - 5:56Giving them good money for assets,
which were often worthless. -
5:56 - 6:00The first two post war
central bank governors -
6:00 - 6:03were nominated by the US occupation.
-
6:04 - 6:08Eikichi Araki was appointed
the first post-war governor -
6:08 - 6:10of the Bank of Japan.
-
6:11 - 6:14But soon after taking up this post,
-
6:14 - 6:17he was indicted by
war crimes prosecutors -
6:17 - 6:19and had to resign.
-
6:20 - 6:22Then in 1951,
-
6:22 - 6:27after a general amnesty on suspected
war criminals filling public offices, -
6:28 - 6:32he was made ambassador to
the United States. -
6:32 - 6:36On returning from his post
as ambassador in 1954, -
6:36 - 6:41Araki was again made governor
of the central bank. -
6:44 - 6:48After the 1951 amnesty
for war criminals, -
6:48 - 6:50much of the Japanese
wartime bureaucracy -
6:50 - 6:53was returned
to their wartime positions. -
6:55 - 6:57This included wartime politicians
-
6:57 - 7:00and most home ministry bureaucrats
-
7:00 - 7:03who had been in charge
of the thought police, -
7:04 - 7:07a number of whom
moved to the education ministry. -
7:07 - 7:10US ARMY: Japan is the key
to the fate of the Far-East, -
7:11 - 7:15once again for the second time
in the march of modern history, -
7:15 - 7:18those words have urgent reality.
-
7:20 - 7:23In order to avert
the kind of rural unrest -
7:24 - 7:26that was helping the communists
in China, -
7:26 - 7:29the Americans initiated
the redistribution of land -
7:30 - 7:33from big landowners to their tenants.
-
7:34 - 7:36The capitalist elite in Japan,
-
7:36 - 7:38known as the Zaibatsu,
-
7:38 - 7:41were purged as supporters of
a criminal war -
7:41 - 7:45and prohibited from
further business activity. -
7:45 - 7:47The fascist policies of the 30s
-
7:48 - 7:52that the reform fascist bureaucrats
could not implement during the war, -
7:53 - 7:55the US occupation
managed to complete, -
7:55 - 7:58like the land reform
and the zaibatsu policy. -
7:58 - 8:01Yes it’s a very funny encounter
-
8:01 - 8:06of Japanese wartime fascists
and American new dealers. -
8:11 - 8:16The Post-Occupation Political System
-
8:19 - 8:25NEWS: The Diet, home of Japan’s
Senate and House of Representatives. -
8:25 - 8:28NEWS: In Japan,
fanatic students and leftist groups -
8:29 - 8:30rioted for days on end
-
8:30 - 8:34seeking to block the mutual
defense treaty with America. -
8:34 - 8:37The socialist deputies
staged a riot in the diet itself. -
8:38 - 8:40The police in restoring order,
-
8:40 - 8:42also evicted the socialists.
-
8:50 - 8:54NEWS: The speaker was carried to
the platform and called to order -
8:54 - 8:57the session that approved the treaty.
-
8:58 - 8:59In 1957,
-
9:00 - 9:04the former Class A war crimes
suspect, Kishi Nobusuke, -
9:04 - 9:06became prime minister of Japan.
-
9:09 - 9:13He had been General Tojo’s
minister of commerce and industry -
9:13 - 9:15during the war,
-
9:15 - 9:17where his responsibilities
had ranged -
9:18 - 9:20from munitions to slave labor.
-
9:21 - 9:24While Hitlers’ war economy minister
-
9:25 - 9:27was in Berlin Spandau prison,
-
9:27 - 9:28Albert Speer,
-
9:29 - 9:34his Japanese wartime colleague
was prime minister of the country. -
9:37 - 9:41Although Kishi became a defender
of democracy after the war, -
9:41 - 9:43before and during the war,
-
9:43 - 9:46he had described himself
as a national socialist. -
9:48 - 9:50With money from crime syndicates,
-
9:51 - 9:52industrial corporations
-
9:52 - 9:54and CIA slush funds,
-
9:54 - 9:57Kishi built
the Liberal Democratic Party -
9:57 - 10:00into a powerful political machine.
-
10:02 - 10:04In Japan,
-
10:04 - 10:08many of the most important post-war
economic and political leaders -
10:08 - 10:11came from an elite group
of wartime bureaucrats, -
10:12 - 10:13the very same people
-
10:13 - 10:15who had pushed Japan
-
10:15 - 10:17into the war.
-
10:17 - 10:18The Liberal Democratic Party
-
10:19 - 10:22stayed in power for almost 40 years.
-
10:26 - 10:29NEWS: Welcome home in Japanese
to these American soldiers. -
10:30 - 10:31After a tour of duty in Korea
-
10:32 - 10:34they are returning to
their base in Japan, -
10:35 - 10:37where once a short time before
-
10:37 - 10:40they were stationed as
occupation troops. -
10:40 - 10:42And how do they return?
-
10:42 - 10:46How are they received by the
people whose land they occupy? -
10:46 - 10:48Not as overlords,
-
10:48 - 10:50not as antagonists,
-
10:50 - 10:53not as men who are distrusted
and feared and resented, -
10:53 - 10:56but as friends.
-
11:05 - 11:10The War Economy System
-
11:19 - 11:22In Tokyo's Central Chiyoda Ward,
-
11:22 - 11:25the Ministry of Finance
had its headquarters. -
11:25 - 11:27From here,
-
11:27 - 11:32the ministry controlled most aspects
of economic life in Japan. -
11:32 - 11:35The Ministry of Finance was
the most powerful ministry -
11:35 - 11:40and the Bank of Japan had
to report to the Ministry of Finance. -
11:41 - 11:43Ministry of Finance officials
-
11:43 - 11:48elicited deep and hushed
exclamations of awe and respect -
11:48 - 11:50and former ministry bureaucrats
-
11:50 - 11:55obtained influential posts as heads
of public and private institutions. -
11:57 - 11:59But in one area
-
11:59 - 12:02the ministry did not have
actual control, -
12:02 - 12:06and that was the quantity of
credit creation and its allocation, -
12:06 - 12:09which was decided by
the Japanese Central Bank, -
12:09 - 12:11the Bank of Japan.
-
12:13 - 12:15They told the Ministry of Finance
-
12:15 - 12:17and the public and the journalists;
-
12:17 - 12:20“we run monetary policy
through interest rates.” -
12:21 - 12:23And they let the Ministry of Finance
reign -
12:23 - 12:26in their interest rate policies,
-
12:26 - 12:29but the rule was done through,
not interest rates, -
12:29 - 12:31which is the price of money,
-
12:31 - 12:34it was done through
the quantity of money. -
12:34 - 12:36Window Guidance:
-
12:36 - 12:39A process by which a
central bank imposes -
12:39 - 12:44credit growth and allocation quotas
on commercial banks. -
12:44 - 12:47It worked this way,
it’s called window guidance. -
12:48 - 12:50The Bank of Japan just told the banks
-
12:50 - 12:54how much they will have to
lend in the coming quarter -
12:55 - 12:57and who, which sector
of the economy to lend to. -
12:58 - 13:00it's credit allocation,
credit control. -
13:00 - 13:04The Bank of Japan gave quarterly
instructions to individual banks, -
13:04 - 13:06on the value of loans
-
13:06 - 13:10and which industrial sectors
they should be allocated to. -
13:10 - 13:14All loans were broken down
in sectors and sub-sectors, -
13:14 - 13:18and large-scale borrowers
had to be listed by name. -
13:22 - 13:24The Bank of Japan could decide
-
13:24 - 13:26which projects should be encouraged
-
13:27 - 13:28and which should be discouraged,
-
13:29 - 13:33by dictating to whom and for what
banks could issue loans. -
13:35 - 13:37This was the war economy system
-
13:38 - 13:42adapted to the production of
consumer goods. -
13:43 - 13:46NEWS: The 95 million people of Japan
-
13:46 - 13:51now enjoy a national income
second only to the United States -
13:51 - 13:54and the more prosperous nations
of Western Europe. -
13:55 - 13:57It’s not a good system for
capitalists, -
13:58 - 14:02But for the population
it created a lot of wealth, -
14:02 - 14:05very even income and
wealth distribution, -
14:05 - 14:07very high growth,
-
14:07 - 14:13and very rapidly raised quality
of life and standards of living. -
14:14 - 14:16In 1959 alone,
-
14:16 - 14:19the economy expanded by 17%.
-
14:22 - 14:24But a result of the
war economy system -
14:24 - 14:26was that entire industrial sectors
-
14:27 - 14:29would compete not for profit,
-
14:29 - 14:31but for market share.
-
14:33 - 14:36Companies would fight
until bankruptcy -
14:36 - 14:38to gain market share.
-
14:41 - 14:43This phenomenon was soon recognized
-
14:43 - 14:45and called “excess competition”.
-
14:46 - 14:51The solution was the creation of
explicit or implicit cartels. -
14:55 - 14:57In the banking sector,
-
14:57 - 15:01window guidance acted as the
cartel control mechanism, -
15:01 - 15:04because the Bank of Japan
could dictate -
15:04 - 15:08the number and value of loans
that banks issued. -
15:09 - 15:13As a result bank rankings never
changed during the post war era, -
15:14 - 15:16except after mergers.
-
15:17 - 15:19According to one banker,
-
15:19 - 15:22“if it were not for window guidance,
-
15:22 - 15:25we would compete until hara-kiri.”
-
15:28 - 15:34The War Economy and
International Trade -
15:35 - 15:37NEWS: The US current account deficit
-
15:37 - 15:39surges to its highest level
in 9 years, -
15:40 - 15:44the size of the increase took
many economists by surprise. -
15:47 - 15:51While cartels controlled
competition within Japan, -
15:51 - 15:56there were no such limits when
it came to international markets. -
15:58 - 16:01Japanese corporations
soon became dominant -
16:01 - 16:04in many markets in the world.
-
16:07 - 16:10In America, formal congressional
hearings were held -
16:11 - 16:12under the title
-
16:12 - 16:16“Japanese productivity–lessons
for America.” -
16:18 - 16:20Leading economic theories indicate
-
16:20 - 16:24that only free markets
can lead to success. -
16:25 - 16:27But Japan rose within decades
-
16:27 - 16:30to become the second
largest economy in the world -
16:31 - 16:35without relying only on the
“invisible hand” of free markets. -
16:38 - 16:40Japan’s postwar economy
-
16:41 - 16:43was a fully mobilized war economy,
-
16:43 - 16:46with production shifted from weapons
-
16:46 - 16:48to consumer goods.
-
16:51 - 16:56“It is better for the Bank of Japan
not to attract attention -
16:56 - 17:00and remain as quiet as
the forest of a rural shrine.” -
17:00 - 17:04(Hisato Ichimada,
18th Governor of the Bank of Japan) -
17:14 - 17:19Since the Bank of Japan presented
itself as a champion of free markets, -
17:19 - 17:23window guidance was an embarrassment.
-
17:24 - 17:27Official publications either
failed to mention it -
17:27 - 17:29or downplayed its role
-
17:29 - 17:33by calling the credit controls
“voluntary”. -
17:35 - 17:38Whenever the Ministry of Finance
would enquire -
17:38 - 17:42about the Bank of Japan’s credit
creation and allocation policy, -
17:43 - 17:44Bank of Japan staff
-
17:44 - 17:47would engage in complex discussions
-
17:47 - 17:49full of technical jargon
-
17:49 - 17:53to make the process appear
impenetrable to non-experts. -
17:57 - 17:59In November 1965,
-
17:59 - 18:04the first batch of Japanese government
bonds came onto the market. -
18:05 - 18:06From now on,
-
18:07 - 18:09when politicians
wanted to spend more, -
18:09 - 18:12they would no longer put
pressure on the Bank of Japan, -
18:13 - 18:16but instead exert it on
the Ministry of Finance. -
18:16 - 18:19So the ministry
would ultimately preside -
18:19 - 18:24over an ever-increasing
national debt mountain. -
18:32 - 18:38Central Bankers call for reform
-
18:53 - 18:57The 1980s was an era of
financial deregulation -
18:57 - 18:59in the industrialized world.
-
19:01 - 19:03Most industrialized countries
-
19:03 - 19:06lifted their restrictions on the
movement of capital. -
19:08 - 19:10In Japan,
-
19:10 - 19:11Tadashi Sasaki,
-
19:12 - 19:14a former governor
of the Bank of Japan -
19:14 - 19:17called for a five-year plan
-
19:17 - 19:22for the transformation and
liberalization of the Japanese economy. -
19:24 - 19:26Then, in 1986,
-
19:26 - 19:30the "Advisory Group on
Economic Restructuring" -
19:30 - 19:34headed by the former Bank of Japan
governor, Haruo Maekawa, -
19:34 - 19:37proposed a ten year
economic reform plan -
19:38 - 19:41designed to make the
living standards of Japanese -
19:41 - 19:45more comparable to those
enjoyed in the West. -
19:48 - 19:51The proposal stated that:
-
19:51 - 19:53"the time has now come
-
19:53 - 19:56for Japan to make
a historical transformation -
19:56 - 20:00in its traditional policies on
economic management -
20:00 - 20:03and the nation’s lifestyle.
-
20:03 - 20:06There can be no further
development for Japan -
20:06 - 20:10without this transformation."
-
20:19 - 20:20The report
-
20:21 - 20:24read like a wish list by
US trade negotiators. -
20:24 - 20:28It started with calls for
administrative reform -
20:28 - 20:31and the abolition of
bureaucratic powers. -
20:32 - 20:34The goal was the transformation
-
20:34 - 20:37of the entire body politic,
-
20:37 - 20:40the abolition of the
war economy system, -
20:40 - 20:43and the introduction of a
US style free-market economy. -
20:45 - 20:47Those members of the advisory group
-
20:48 - 20:50who uttered dissent,
-
20:50 - 20:52were relieved of their duties.
-
20:54 - 20:57Reports in the press
were highly critical. -
20:58 - 21:02Observers recognized
the radical nature of the plan. -
21:02 - 21:05It seemed far too ambitious.
-
21:05 - 21:07It was calling
-
21:07 - 21:09for a wholesale revolution
-
21:09 - 21:11of all parts
-
21:11 - 21:15of the Japanese economic,
political, and social system. -
21:19 - 21:23Although the report was clear
about what was wanted, -
21:23 - 21:25it was embarrassingly silent
-
21:26 - 21:28about how these goals
would be achieved. -
21:29 - 21:32The only clue hidden
in the report was, -
21:32 - 21:35“in the implementation
of these recommendations, -
21:35 - 21:39fiscal and monetary policy
-
21:39 - 21:42have a significant part to play.”
-
21:43 - 21:44The Bank of Japan
-
21:44 - 21:46has always been on the record
-
21:47 - 21:49that this Japanese system
-
21:49 - 21:51should be scrapped,
-
21:51 - 21:55and US style capitalism
should be introduced. -
21:55 - 21:59Whether you agree with that or
not is an entirely separate question. -
22:00 - 22:01Now the next question is,
-
22:02 - 22:04how do you do that?
-
22:04 - 22:07The Ministry of Finance
has been legally in control -
22:07 - 22:10for most of the post-war era,
-
22:10 - 22:12we have entrenched
bureaucratic structures, -
22:13 - 22:16politicians, and all these cartels
and so on. -
22:16 - 22:18That was the old system,
-
22:18 - 22:22well history teaches a system
only changes fundamentally -
22:23 - 22:25if there is a crisis.
-
22:28 - 22:29The commission proposed
-
22:30 - 22:34that monetary policy should be
used to promote a historic crisis, -
22:34 - 22:38sufficiently large to overcome
the vested interests of -
22:38 - 22:42the Ministry of Finance, politicians
and corporate Japan. -
22:46 - 22:48Every system
-
22:48 - 22:50has groups that benefit from it
-
22:50 - 22:53and hence have no desire
to change it. -
22:53 - 22:55There is probably no country
in the world -
22:56 - 22:59that has changed its economic,
social, and political system -
22:59 - 23:02in a significant way
without a crisis. -
23:02 - 23:04It is the crisis
-
23:04 - 23:07that convinces citizens and
interest groups -
23:07 - 23:09of the need for change.
-
23:10 - 23:12How can you achieve this?
-
23:12 - 23:14Well you need a crisis,
-
23:14 - 23:18and the best way to create it,
is to have a bubble, -
23:18 - 23:21because that is how nobody stops you.
-
23:23 - 23:29How to create a Bubble
-
23:30 - 23:31The Bank of Japan
-
23:32 - 23:36began to significantly increase
window guidance loan quotas. -
23:36 - 23:38Average yearly loan growth quotas
-
23:39 - 23:42were close to 15% in the late 1980’s.
-
23:44 - 23:47One city banker would later remark:
-
23:47 - 23:51"during the bubble, we wanted
a certain amount of loan increases, -
23:51 - 23:55but the Bank of Japan
wanted us to use more. -
23:57 - 24:00Young people in their 20s and 30s
-
24:00 - 24:02on modest salaries
-
24:03 - 24:05were able to buy
-
24:05 - 24:07second and third homes.
-
24:17 - 24:19The credit boom
-
24:19 - 24:22caused not only a boom
in real estate, -
24:22 - 24:24but also in the stock market.
-
24:24 - 24:27Between 1985 and 1989,
-
24:27 - 24:29stocks rose 240%
-
24:29 - 24:32and land prices 245%.
-
24:39 - 24:40By the end of the 80’s,
-
24:41 - 24:45the value of the garden surrounding
the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo -
24:46 - 24:50was worth as much as
the entire state of California. -
25:06 - 25:11Although Japan is only 1/26th
of the size of the United States, -
25:11 - 25:16its land was valued at four times
of that of the United States. -
25:18 - 25:23The market value of a single
one of Tokyo’s 23 districts, -
25:23 - 25:26the Central Chiyoda Ward,
-
25:26 - 25:29exceeded the value
of the whole of Canada. -
25:31 - 25:32Economists,
-
25:32 - 25:35who are trained to believe
in market outcomes, -
25:35 - 25:38tried to justify
the high land prices. -
25:39 - 25:42Some thought land scarcity
was the reason. -
25:43 - 25:45Shiny new corporate headquarters
-
25:45 - 25:48rose in Tokyo’s posh
business districts. -
25:49 - 25:52The labor market boomed so much
-
25:52 - 25:56that there was a genuine fear
of a serious labor shortage. -
25:57 - 26:01Companies started to invite
final year university students -
26:01 - 26:04on expensive trips to holiday resorts
-
26:05 - 26:08to entice them to sign up.
-
26:12 - 26:14The politicians loved it,
-
26:14 - 26:16the Ministry of Finance loved it,
-
26:16 - 26:18tax revenues were going up.
-
26:19 - 26:20The companies loved it.
-
26:20 - 26:23Every day was like a festival,
-
26:23 - 26:25we girls were taken out,
-
26:25 - 26:30and everything was always paid for
by guys and bosses. -
26:30 - 26:34No-one used public transport
to get home, -
26:34 - 26:38we always got a taxi.
-
26:40 - 26:44With asset and stock prices
rising inexorably, -
26:44 - 26:48even traditional manufacturers
could not resist the temptation -
26:48 - 26:52to try their hand
at playing the markets. -
26:52 - 26:56Soon they expanded their
finance and treasury divisions -
26:56 - 26:59to handle the speculation themselves.
-
26:59 - 27:01These company hedge funds,
-
27:01 - 27:03known as Zai Tech
-
27:03 - 27:07used borrowed money to engage
in property and share speculation. -
27:08 - 27:11The frenzy reached such proportions
-
27:11 - 27:13that many leading manufacturers,
-
27:13 - 27:15such as the carmaker Nissan,
-
27:16 - 27:19made more money through
speculative investments -
27:19 - 27:21than through manufacturing cars.
-
27:24 - 27:27Literally thousands
of articles were written -
27:27 - 27:30on the new Japanese miracle economy.
-
27:30 - 27:32A common explanation by economists
-
27:33 - 27:35was that high and rising productivity
-
27:35 - 27:38explained the impressive performance
of Japan’s economy. -
27:45 - 27:48Books on Japanese
management techniques -
27:48 - 27:50became international bestsellers.
-
27:51 - 27:52Western businessmen
-
27:53 - 27:58read 17th-century tracts
on samurai strategies. -
28:03 - 28:05In reality,
-
28:05 - 28:08Japan’s stellar performance
in the 1980s -
28:08 - 28:11had little to do with
management techniques. -
28:12 - 28:16Instead of being used
to limit and direct credit, -
28:16 - 28:20window guidance was used
to create a giant bubble. -
28:26 - 28:32I conducted research interviewing
Bank of Japan officers and bankers, -
28:32 - 28:34both sides, on tape.
-
28:34 - 28:36The result was,
-
28:36 - 28:39the Bank of Japan did continue
its informal guidance, -
28:39 - 28:42in fact it was
the Bank of Japan -
28:42 - 28:46that forced the banks to
increase their lending so much. -
28:49 - 28:51The Bank of Japan knew
-
28:51 - 28:55that the only way for banks
to fulfill their loan quotas -
28:56 - 29:00was for them to expand
non-productive lending. -
29:00 - 29:02In the words of one Banker:
-
29:03 - 29:07"if there is no demand for credit
from low-risk borrowers -
29:07 - 29:10and we want
to use up the quota, -
29:10 - 29:12the risk gets worse."
-
29:13 - 29:16Another banker is quoted as
saying that -
29:16 - 29:20"a side effect of the window
guidance rule of loan increases -
29:21 - 29:23was that banks increased lending
-
29:23 - 29:26even when there was no loan demand."
-
29:28 - 29:34Money Creation and the Bubble
-
29:34 - 29:36Like all bubbles,
-
29:36 - 29:37the Japanese bubble
-
29:38 - 29:41was simply fuelled by the
rapid creation of new money -
29:41 - 29:43by the banking system.
-
29:45 - 29:47Between 1986 and 1989,
-
29:47 - 29:51Toshihiko Fukui was the head of
the Banking Department -
29:51 - 29:53at the Bank of Japan,
-
29:54 - 29:57this was the department that was
responsible for -
29:57 - 30:00the window guidance quotas.
-
30:00 - 30:03When Fukui was asked by a journalist,
-
30:03 - 30:05“borrowing is expanding fast,
-
30:05 - 30:10don’t you have any intention of
closing the tap on bank loans?” -
30:10 - 30:11he replied,
-
30:12 - 30:17“because the consistent policy of
monetary easing continues, -
30:18 - 30:22quantity control of bank loans
would imply a self-contradiction. -
30:23 - 30:29Therefore we do not intend to
implement quantitative tightening. -
30:29 - 30:32With structural adjustment
of the economy -
30:32 - 30:35going on for quite a long period,
-
30:35 - 30:38the international imbalances
are being addressed. -
30:39 - 30:42The monetary policy supports this,
-
30:42 - 30:47thus we have the responsibility to
continue the monetary easing policy -
30:47 - 30:49as long as possible.
-
30:50 - 30:55Therefore it is natural
for bank loans to expand.” -
30:56 - 30:59Why were the banks lending so much?
-
30:59 - 31:02Because they were forced to do so
-
31:02 - 31:05by the orders of the Bank of Japan.
-
31:10 - 31:11Normally,
-
31:11 - 31:16banks choose clients from among
a large number of loan applicants, -
31:16 - 31:20turning down
a significant percentage. -
31:22 - 31:24But from 1987 onwards,
-
31:24 - 31:26the tables had turned,
-
31:26 - 31:28it was the bankers
-
31:28 - 31:32who were aggressively pursuing
potential customers. -
31:33 - 31:35Anecdotes abound
-
31:35 - 31:39about how banks were soliciting
loans at bargain interest rates, -
31:39 - 31:42pursuing clients like street peddlers.
-
31:42 - 31:47The banks were encouraging
people to borrow money. -
31:47 - 31:48For example
-
31:49 - 31:53when a newly wed couple
wanted to buy a house, -
31:53 - 31:56banks would offer them
-
31:56 - 32:00double the amount they asked for.
-
32:01 - 32:04Bankers made increasingly
exaggerated assessments -
32:05 - 32:06of land value,
-
32:06 - 32:10so that the actual ratio
of land value to loan -
32:10 - 32:13often jumped to 300% or more.
-
32:14 - 32:18To the public this was
a strange phenomenon. -
32:18 - 32:20People soon dubbed it
-
32:20 - 32:22"excess money".
-
32:23 - 32:25Only economists,
-
32:25 - 32:26analysts,
-
32:26 - 32:29and those working in
the financial markets -
32:29 - 32:32or for real estate firms
knew better. -
32:32 - 32:35They dismissed such
simplistic analysis. -
32:37 - 32:38Land prices were going up
-
32:39 - 32:41due to far more complicated reasons
-
32:41 - 32:43than just excess money,
-
32:43 - 32:44they claimed.
-
32:45 - 32:48Ordinary people simply did not
understand the intricacies -
32:49 - 32:52of advanced financial technology.
-
32:54 - 32:59International Capital Flows
-
33:08 - 33:10When a country creates
too much money, -
33:11 - 33:13some of that money spills out abroad
-
33:13 - 33:16in the form of investments.
-
33:18 - 33:19In the 1980s
-
33:20 - 33:22Japanese capital flows multiplied
-
33:22 - 33:25from a net inflow of
more than $2 billion -
33:25 - 33:27in 1980
-
33:27 - 33:30to an outflow of $132 billion
-
33:30 - 33:32in 1986.
-
33:35 - 33:38Assets, including art objects
and other valuables -
33:38 - 33:40all over the world
-
33:40 - 33:42became targets for Japanese buyers.
-
33:44 - 33:47There were high-profile purchases
-
33:47 - 33:50such as the Rockefeller Centre,
Columbia Pictures -
33:50 - 33:53and Pebble Beach Golf Course.
-
33:55 - 33:57Japanese money
-
33:57 - 34:01bought a staggering 75% of
all United States treasury bonds -
34:01 - 34:04auctioned off in 1986.
-
34:07 - 34:09But it is not easy
-
34:09 - 34:11for a country to just print money
-
34:11 - 34:14and then go on a shopping spree
around the world. -
34:15 - 34:17Japan was able to do this
-
34:17 - 34:21because the markets
did not devalue its currency. -
34:22 - 34:24The value of individual currencies
-
34:25 - 34:27is set by currency dealers,
-
34:27 - 34:29If the traditional indicators
-
34:30 - 34:32that the currency dealers watch
-
34:32 - 34:36do not pick up the excess money
creation in the country concerned, -
34:36 - 34:38then creating large amounts of money
-
34:39 - 34:42and trying to exchange it
for foreign currency, -
34:42 - 34:44can work.
-
34:49 - 34:51Japan had pulled off the same trick
-
34:52 - 34:54that the United States had used
-
34:54 - 34:56in the 1950s and 1960s,
-
34:57 - 35:00when US banks
excessively created dollars. -
35:02 - 35:05Corporate America used this hot money
-
35:05 - 35:08to buy up European corporations.
-
35:10 - 35:12While the United States
-
35:12 - 35:15had the cover of
the dollar gold standard, -
35:15 - 35:19Japan’s cover
was a significant trade surplus. -
35:24 - 35:27Non-GDP based loan:
-
35:28 - 35:33A loan, which is not used for
the production of goods or services. -
35:33 - 35:35An early warning indicator
-
35:35 - 35:39of the buildup of systemic risk
in the banking system -
35:39 - 35:43is the ratio of loans for
non-GDP-based transactions -
35:43 - 35:45to total loans.
-
35:47 - 35:50This ratio increases significantly
in most countries -
35:51 - 35:55that are subsequently struck
by a banking crisis. -
35:59 - 36:01It was this same process
-
36:01 - 36:05that fueled the mortgage lending
and house price booms -
36:05 - 36:08in the United States and
the United Kingdom -
36:08 - 36:10in the 1980s and the 2000s.
-
36:11 - 36:15The same process also created
the golden twenties: -
36:15 - 36:16in the 1920s,
-
36:17 - 36:20United States banks
lent with stocks as collateral. -
36:22 - 36:24The principle remains the same.
-
36:24 - 36:28As each bank took
the stock price as a given, -
36:28 - 36:30it created new money.
-
36:30 - 36:33With more money in the stock market,
-
36:33 - 36:35stock prices had to rise.
-
36:36 - 36:39Each bank thought it was safe
-
36:39 - 36:44accepting a certain percentage of
the value of the stock as collateral, -
36:44 - 36:46but the actions of all banks
together, -
36:46 - 36:49drove up the overall market.
-
36:52 - 36:54In Japan,
-
36:54 - 36:56total private sector land wealth
-
36:56 - 36:58rose from ¥14.2 trillion in 1969
-
36:59 - 37:02to 2000 trillion yen in 1989.
-
37:08 - 37:10At his first press conference
-
37:10 - 37:13as the 26th governor of
the Bank of Japan, -
37:14 - 37:15in 1989,
-
37:15 - 37:17Yasushi Mieno said that,
-
37:17 - 37:20“since the previous policy of
monetary easing -
37:20 - 37:23had caused
the land price rise problem, -
37:23 - 37:27real estate related lending
would now be restricted.” -
37:28 - 37:30He looked around,
looked at the bubble, -
37:30 - 37:34asset prices rising, the gap between
rich and poor getting bigger, -
37:34 - 37:36lets stop it.
-
37:36 - 37:39His name was mister Mieno,
and he was a hero in the press, -
37:40 - 37:43because he fought against
this silly monetary policy. -
37:43 - 37:46But he was deputy governor
during the bubble era, -
37:47 - 37:50and he was in charge
of creating the bubble. -
37:57 - 38:02The Crash
-
38:17 - 38:18All of a sudden
-
38:18 - 38:21land and asset prices stopped rising.
-
38:22 - 38:24In 1990 alone,
-
38:24 - 38:27the stock market dropped by 32%.
-
38:32 - 38:34Then in July 1991,
-
38:34 - 38:36window guidance was abolished.
-
38:38 - 38:40This took
the window guidance officers -
38:41 - 38:44at the Bank of Japan
themselves by surprise. -
38:44 - 38:47Bankers were left almost helpless.
-
38:47 - 38:49They complained
that they did not know -
38:49 - 38:52how to make their
lending plans anymore. -
38:53 - 38:55In the past
when a certain branch said -
38:56 - 38:58they would like to lend more,
-
38:58 - 39:03they would respond that the window
guidance quota had been used up -
39:03 - 39:06now they couldn’t do that anymore.
-
39:09 - 39:11As banks began to realize
-
39:11 - 39:14that the majority of the ¥99 trillion
in bubble loans -
39:15 - 39:17were likely to turn sour,
-
39:17 - 39:19they became so fearful
-
39:19 - 39:22that they not only stopped lending
to speculators, -
39:23 - 39:26but also restricted loans
to everyone else. -
39:26 - 39:29NEWS: Well it’s a bleak Christmas
ahead for Japan, -
39:29 - 39:31the stock market on Monday
-
39:31 - 39:34sinking to its lowest close
in over two years. -
39:34 - 39:37Last weeks collapse of one of
Japan’s biggest food traders -
39:38 - 39:40was the 9th time this year
-
39:40 - 39:42that a listed company went under.
-
39:44 - 39:46More than 5 million Japanese
lost their jobs -
39:47 - 39:50and did not find employment
elsewhere. -
39:54 - 39:57Suicide became
the leading cause of death -
39:57 - 40:00for men between the ages
of 20 and 44. -
40:03 - 40:05The papers ran stories
-
40:05 - 40:07of people hanging themselves
-
40:07 - 40:09or going missing
-
40:10 - 40:12on an almost daily basis.
-
40:21 - 40:23Between 1990 and 2003,
-
40:24 - 40:27212,000 companies went bankrupt.
-
40:29 - 40:31In the same period
-
40:31 - 40:34the stock market dropped by 80%.
-
40:36 - 40:38Land prices in the major cities
-
40:38 - 40:40fell by up to 84%.
-
40:42 - 40:44Some economists seemed relieved.
-
40:44 - 40:46The downturn was evidence
-
40:47 - 40:49that Japan’s economic system
-
40:49 - 40:52was not so successful after all.
-
40:53 - 40:54Meanwhile,
-
40:55 - 40:57the Governor of the Bank of Japan,
-
40:57 - 40:59Yasushi Mieno, said that:
-
40:59 - 41:02“thanks to this recession
-
41:02 - 41:04everyone is becoming
conscious of the need -
41:05 - 41:08to implement
economic transformation,” -
41:11 - 41:15The Failed Bailout
-
41:16 - 41:17The Ministry of Finance,
-
41:18 - 41:21believing that interest rates
were the main policy tool, -
41:21 - 41:25put pressure on the Bank of Japan
to lower interest rates, -
41:26 - 41:29until the official rate
reached 0.1%. -
41:32 - 41:36Most economists predicted
an economic recovery. -
41:41 - 41:44But despite frequent assertions
in the financial press -
41:45 - 41:46and by central banks
-
41:47 - 41:50that lower interest rates
will stimulate growth -
41:50 - 41:52and higher interest rates
will slow growth, -
41:53 - 41:56there is no empirical evidence
for this relationship. -
42:03 - 42:06NEWS: Japanese and American
businessmen are meeting here -
42:07 - 42:10with a plea from Japan’s companies
for a lower yen. -
42:10 - 42:12Only 6% of Japanese exporters
-
42:13 - 42:16can make profits with the dollar
at less than a ¥100. -
42:16 - 42:19On average they need
the American currency to rise -
42:19 - 42:22above ¥117 to break even.
-
42:25 - 42:28The Ministry of Finance
asked the Bank of Japan -
42:28 - 42:30to sell large amounts of yen
-
42:30 - 42:32and buy US dollars.
-
42:32 - 42:36So that the exchange rate
of the yen would fall -
42:36 - 42:38and exports would pick up.
-
42:40 - 42:41The two of them,
-
42:42 - 42:45the Ministry of Finance (MOF)
and the Bank of Japan (BOJ), -
42:45 - 42:47they just don’t get along well.
-
42:47 - 42:50And what has been happening
again this month -
42:50 - 42:54is that the Bank of Japan has been
sterilizing its own intervention, -
42:55 - 42:56to be precise,
-
42:56 - 42:59the intervention ordered
by the Ministry of Finance. -
42:59 - 43:01The Ministry of Finance
tells the Bank of Japan -
43:02 - 43:06to go out and buy roughly 20
billion worth of US treasuries. -
43:06 - 43:08But, the Bank of Japan is
sterilizing this, -
43:09 - 43:12which means it is basically taking
the money from the economy -
43:12 - 43:14to fund this purchase.
-
43:14 - 43:16Most researchers agree,
-
43:16 - 43:19sterilized forex intervention
doesn’t work. -
43:19 - 43:21The BOJ is again sterilizing,
-
43:21 - 43:23that’s why it doesn’t work,
-
43:23 - 43:26that’s why the yen
has remained strong. -
43:30 - 43:33A central bank can withdraw money
from the economy -
43:33 - 43:35by selling its assets.
-
43:36 - 43:39Just as it can inject money
into the economy -
43:39 - 43:41by buying assets.
-
43:43 - 43:46When central banks
buy and sell assets, -
43:47 - 43:52they increase or decrease the amount
of money circulating in the economy. -
43:53 - 43:56Officials at the Bank of japan
ignored this, -
43:56 - 43:58and instead claimed that,
-
43:59 - 44:02“this structural transformation
or reform -
44:02 - 44:06may produce deflationary forces
in the short run, -
44:06 - 44:11but will generate a much more
efficient economy after a while.” -
44:18 - 44:20Independent observers suggested that
-
44:20 - 44:25domestic demand had to be boosted
by government spending, -
44:25 - 44:28and then loan demand would also rise.
-
44:30 - 44:31For a decade,
-
44:32 - 44:34the government followed
their advice, -
44:34 - 44:37boosting government debt
to historic levels. -
44:37 - 44:39Between 1992 and 2002,
-
44:40 - 44:4410 stimulation packages worth
¥146 trillion were issued. -
44:48 - 44:49NEWS: Mr Richard Werner
-
44:49 - 44:52is chief economist at Jardine
Fleming Securities in Tokyo, -
44:52 - 44:54he joins us now
to share his views on -
44:54 - 44:57where the Japanese
economy is heading. -
44:58 - 45:00The government was spending
with the right hand, -
45:00 - 45:01putting money into the economy,
-
45:02 - 45:04but the fundraising was done
through the bond market, -
45:04 - 45:07and therefore it took the same money
out of the economy with the left hand. -
45:07 - 45:10There was no increase in
total purchasing power -
45:10 - 45:13and that’s why the government
spending couldn’t have an impact. -
45:13 - 45:18By 2011 Japan’s government debt
would reach 230% of GDP, -
45:18 - 45:20the highest in the world.
-
45:27 - 45:30The Ministry of Finance
was running out of options, -
45:32 - 45:36observers began to blame
the ministry for the recession, -
45:36 - 45:38and started to listen to the voices
-
45:38 - 45:43that argued that the recession was
due to Japan’s economic system. -
45:46 - 45:48But how difficult would it have been
-
45:48 - 45:51to solve the problems of bad debt
in the banking sector, -
45:52 - 45:53and deflation?
-
45:54 - 45:58It turns out that this would not
have been so difficult after all. -
45:58 - 46:00The financial system always looks
like Catch 22, -
46:00 - 46:02there’s no loan growth,
so there’s no economic growth, -
46:03 - 46:06so there’s no loan growth,
so there’s no economic growth. -
46:06 - 46:10Well, there is one thing that can
break through this circular argument, -
46:10 - 46:12that’s the central bank.
-
46:12 - 46:16The job of the central bank in
this situation is to print money. -
46:18 - 46:22The Power of Central Banks
-
46:22 - 46:26What we need now
is more radical measures, -
46:26 - 46:28and there are some painful ones,
-
46:28 - 46:30but there are also painless ones.
-
46:30 - 46:34The central bank could for example
just buy all bad debts at face value, -
46:34 - 46:37Japan would have the strongest
banks in the world. -
46:38 - 46:40To bail out the banking sector
-
46:40 - 46:43a central bank can buy up
the bank's bad financial assets -
46:44 - 46:45with newly created money,
-
46:46 - 46:48giving them face value for assets,
-
46:48 - 46:50which are often worth
significantly less. -
46:53 - 46:56This is what the Bank
of Japan did after the war. -
46:59 - 47:02Alternatively, money could be
transferred to the banks -
47:03 - 47:06by helping them make
sizeable profits. -
47:06 - 47:08One way this can be achieved
-
47:08 - 47:11is for the central bank
to corner a market -
47:11 - 47:14– in effect creating a mini bubble
in a certain market -
47:14 - 47:16in which banks invest heavily,
-
47:16 - 47:18providing large profits for them.
-
47:20 - 47:23This turns out to be
a relatively common technique -
47:23 - 47:25by central banks
-
47:25 - 47:28to help their banking systems.
-
47:32 - 47:34Other proposals include,
-
47:34 - 47:37measures to introduce zero risk
borrowers to banks -
47:37 - 47:41or introducing accounting changes
that help their balance sheets. -
47:48 - 47:51In Japan, the authorities and
the Bank of Japan argued, -
47:52 - 47:55as did the Western powers
almost two decades later, -
47:55 - 47:58that the taxpayer
should foot the bill. -
48:01 - 48:02In March last year,
-
48:03 - 48:07the government injected
a large amount of money into -
48:07 - 48:11some 15 major
Japanese financial institutions. -
48:14 - 48:16And we were one of them.
-
48:17 - 48:20That helped us write off bad debts,
-
48:20 - 48:23and also to beef up our capital base
-
48:23 - 48:26so that we would be prepared to lend.
-
48:29 - 48:32Tax money has been used
to recapitalize banks. -
48:33 - 48:37However, there is no evidence that
taxpayers have been responsible -
48:37 - 48:39for the bank’s problems,
-
48:39 - 48:41therefore, such policies
-
48:41 - 48:43have likely created a moral hazard.
-
48:48 - 48:49The money supply
-
48:49 - 48:52is determined by the net increase
in money creation -
48:52 - 48:55by banks and the central bank.
-
48:55 - 48:57If moral hazard dictates that
-
48:57 - 49:00the banking sector should
not be bailed out, -
49:00 - 49:05deflation and recession can still
be avoided by the central bank. -
49:05 - 49:07To do this,
-
49:07 - 49:10the central bank can
increase the money supply. -
49:11 - 49:14A central bank can increase
the amount of money -
49:14 - 49:16in an economy at any time,
-
49:17 - 49:18without limit,
-
49:18 - 49:21by simply buying assets
from the private sector -
49:22 - 49:24and paying with
newly created credit. -
49:25 - 49:27The Bank of Japan could for instance
-
49:27 - 49:29have bought real estate
-
49:29 - 49:31and converted it into public parks.
-
49:31 - 49:35And there is an opportunity here to
solve three problems in one stroke. -
49:36 - 49:38The economy needs money creation,
-
49:38 - 49:40the banks need to get rid of
their bad debt -
49:41 - 49:44and the real estate sector
needs some transactions. -
49:44 - 49:48What you can do is just have
the central bank print money, -
49:48 - 49:50buy the land from the banks,
-
49:50 - 49:52turn it into parks,
-
49:52 - 49:54and you solve another problem,
-
49:54 - 49:56quality of life in Japan.
-
49:57 - 50:00Even if the Bank of Japan
would have later sold these parks -
50:01 - 50:03at a fraction of the cost,
-
50:03 - 50:05it would still have made money,
-
50:05 - 50:07because it costs
a central bank nothing -
50:08 - 50:11to create the money
in the first place. -
50:12 - 50:16Another option for injecting
money into the economy -
50:16 - 50:18is quantitative easing.
-
50:19 - 50:21Despite having all these options
available, -
50:22 - 50:26the Bank of Japan at every stage
refused to implement policies -
50:26 - 50:29that would have resolved the crises.
-
50:30 - 50:33When I was at the Bank of Japan
in 1992-1993, -
50:33 - 50:35as a visiting researcher,
-
50:35 - 50:39I was convinced that this recession
was going to get really bad. -
50:39 - 50:43So I would ask any Bank of Japan
person who would talk to me, -
50:43 - 50:45why aren’t you printing more money.
-
50:45 - 50:48I met one individual who
was quite open about this -
50:49 - 50:50and he said:
-
50:50 - 50:53“Richard, sure we could have
printed more money, -
50:54 - 50:56we could have created a recovery,
-
50:56 - 50:58but then nothing would have changed,
-
50:58 - 51:01Japans economic structure
would not have changed.” -
51:01 - 51:04Now at that time I still
wasn’t ready to believe -
51:04 - 51:07that the Bank of Japan was
prolonging the recession -
51:07 - 51:09in order to get structural changes
-
51:09 - 51:12that just seemed a bit too wild.
-
51:13 - 51:17Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa
has turned to the Bank of Japan -
51:17 - 51:21asking it to help stop deflation,
or fight deflation at least. -
51:21 - 51:24The Bank of Japan consistently
defied calls by the government, -
51:25 - 51:27finance minister and prime minister
-
51:27 - 51:30to create more money
to stimulate the economy -
51:30 - 51:32and end the long recession.
-
51:33 - 51:35At times the Bank of Japan
-
51:35 - 51:40even actively reduced the amount
of money circulating in the economy, -
51:40 - 51:42which worsened the recession.
-
51:48 - 51:52The Bank of Japan’s arguments
always came to the same conclusion, -
51:53 - 51:54namely, that the blame lay
-
51:55 - 51:57with Japan’s economic structure.
-
52:00 - 52:02Central bank staff even argued
-
52:02 - 52:04that significant monetary easing
-
52:04 - 52:06“could cause harm”
-
52:06 - 52:11by inducing “a further delay in the
progress of structural adjustment”. -
52:18 - 52:20The early postwar Japanese leaders
-
52:20 - 52:23knew that they were
running a war economy, -
52:23 - 52:26but they chose not to talk
for political reasons. -
52:28 - 52:30The cold war propaganda message
-
52:30 - 52:32was that post-war Japan
-
52:32 - 52:37had adopted a US style
political and economic system. -
52:40 - 52:41Unwilling to tell the truth,
-
52:41 - 52:43the early post-war leaders,
-
52:44 - 52:45took their intimate knowledge
-
52:46 - 52:48about the origins of Japan’s
miracle economy -
52:48 - 52:51with them to their grave.
-
52:52 - 52:55A generation of
bureaucrats and politicians -
52:55 - 52:57reigned in the 1980s and 1990s,
-
52:58 - 52:59who did not understand
-
52:59 - 53:01the true character and purpose
-
53:01 - 53:03of their own country’s economy.
-
53:05 - 53:08A whole generation
of Japan’s economists -
53:08 - 53:10had been sent to the United States
-
53:10 - 53:14to receive Ph.Ds and MBAs
in US style economics. -
53:19 - 53:21Since neoclassical economics assumes
-
53:22 - 53:25that there is only one type
of economic system, -
53:25 - 53:27namely, unmitigated free markets,
-
53:27 - 53:30where shareholders and
central bankers rule supreme, -
53:31 - 53:34many Japanese economists
quickly came to regurgitate -
53:34 - 53:38the arguments of US economists.
-
53:44 - 53:50Dismantling The Ministry Of Finance
-
53:50 - 53:54NEWS: The US and Japan closed two
days of insurance talks on Tuesday. -
53:55 - 53:57Primary sector deregulation
-
53:57 - 54:00is needed to overcome
the entrenched interests -
54:00 - 54:05of large insurance companies,
life and non-life, -
54:05 - 54:09and the Ministry of Finance
bureaucracy. -
54:12 - 54:14They need to reach an agreement
before December the 15th, -
54:15 - 54:18after that date the US has
threatened to impose trade sanctions. -
54:18 - 54:23A key move analysts are expecting
is the securitization of real estate. -
54:23 - 54:25For more we are talking to
Richard Werner. -
54:25 - 54:28To have meaningful securitization,
we need deregulation, -
54:29 - 54:31and that’s already the
answer to your question, -
54:32 - 54:35to get deregulation you have to
reduce the power -
54:35 - 54:37of the Ministry of Finance,
-
54:37 - 54:40and obviously the ministry
was resisting that. -
54:41 - 54:42In the 1980s,
-
54:42 - 54:45persons who could introduce
themselves with a business card -
54:45 - 54:48from the renowned finance ministry,
-
54:48 - 54:52elicited deep and hushed
exclamations of awe and respect. -
54:54 - 54:57But by the mid 1990's
attitudes had changed, -
54:57 - 54:59there now seemed little doubt
-
54:59 - 55:01to most observers,
-
55:01 - 55:04that the Ministry of Finance
had caused the recession. -
55:07 - 55:11Frequent demonstrations were held
outside the ministry’s doors, -
55:11 - 55:14by citizens disgusted by
the bureaucrat’s actions. -
55:17 - 55:19In early 1998
-
55:19 - 55:22public prosecutors
for the first time raided -
55:23 - 55:26the most powerful
of Japan’s ministries. -
55:26 - 55:28Both banks and their regulators
-
55:28 - 55:31were heavily criticized
for their actions. -
55:31 - 55:35Scandals highlighted some
of the informal links -
55:35 - 55:39that existed between Ministry of
Finance officials and bankers. -
55:40 - 55:42Many bank staff,
-
55:42 - 55:44and even some ministry officials,
-
55:44 - 55:46were arrested and imprisoned,
-
55:46 - 55:48and several committed suicide.
-
55:54 - 55:57As central banker
Masaaki Shirakawa had explained: -
55:57 - 56:02“it is not easy to change
the institutional framework -
56:02 - 56:05and promote structural reform
-
56:05 - 56:08since it necessarily involves
the vested interests -
56:09 - 56:13of all the related
individual economic agents.” -
56:15 - 56:19While Yutaka Yamaguchi, a deputy
governor of the Bank of Japan, -
56:19 - 56:21had said that,
-
56:21 - 56:24"the Bank of Japan
had faced the big dilemma -
56:25 - 56:29that monetary easing would produce
the mitigation of immediate risks, -
56:30 - 56:32which in turn would result
-
56:32 - 56:36in a delaying of adopting
ultimate solutions." -
56:49 - 56:51From the mid 1990’s onwards
-
56:51 - 56:55the Government began to dismantle
much of the power structure -
56:55 - 56:57of the Ministry of Finance.
-
56:58 - 57:00The Bank of Japan on the other hand,
-
57:00 - 57:03saw its influence
grow significantly. -
57:03 - 57:05NEWS: You have written
just recently, -
57:06 - 57:08“there is no doubt in your mind,
-
57:08 - 57:11the Bank of Japan will be cut loose
from the Ministry of Finance -
57:11 - 57:13and become independent,
-
57:13 - 57:16putting it on a footing
with other central banks.” -
57:16 - 57:18Why are you so sure?
-
57:18 - 57:20The Ministry of Finance which
had been controlling -
57:21 - 57:23legally at least the Bank of Japan,
-
57:23 - 57:25has lost all credibility.
-
57:25 - 57:27The Ministry of Finance
is being blamed -
57:28 - 57:30for the creation of the bubble,
-
57:30 - 57:32for the long recession and
-
57:32 - 57:36for many other problems,
which we’ve had recently in Japan. -
57:36 - 57:38Whereas the Bank of Japan
-
57:38 - 57:41has been out of the spotlight
of public criticism -
57:41 - 57:44and it’s using that now to say,
-
57:44 - 57:46well, the MOF has been bad
-
57:46 - 57:48we need independence now.
-
57:48 - 57:50Richard, thanks very much.
-
57:50 - 57:52I have been speaking to
Richard Werner -
57:52 - 57:55chief economist at
Jardine Fleming Securities in Tokyo. -
57:58 - 58:00Soon after his retirement
-
58:00 - 58:02from the position of governor
of the Bank of Japan -
58:02 - 58:04in 1994,
-
58:04 - 58:07Mieno embarked on a campaign
giving speeches -
58:07 - 58:10to various associations
and interest groups; -
58:12 - 58:15He lobbied for a change
in the Bank of Japan law. -
58:15 - 58:18His line of argument
was to subtly suggest -
58:18 - 58:22that the Ministry of Finance
had pushed the Bank of Japan -
58:22 - 58:24into the wrong policies.
-
58:26 - 58:28To avoid such problems in the future,
-
58:29 - 58:33the Bank of Japan needed to be
given full legal independence. -
58:36 - 58:38According to Mieno,
-
58:38 - 58:40making central banks independent
-
58:40 - 58:45reflected the human wisdom
that had been nurtured by history. -
58:47 - 58:50In 1998 monetary policy
was put into the hands -
58:51 - 58:53of the newly independent
Bank of Japan. -
58:56 - 58:59So you’re saying that
politicians as well as economists -
58:59 - 59:02should be putting more pressure
on the Bank of Japan -
59:02 - 59:04to create more money.
-
59:04 - 59:07A lot of critics are going
to say that that -
59:07 - 59:10is intervening in the
central banks independence. -
59:10 - 59:12What do you make of that?
-
59:12 - 59:14That’s exactly right,
-
59:14 - 59:16that is intervening in the
central banks independence, -
59:17 - 59:18and that’s exactly what we need.
-
59:22 - 59:27The Transformation Of
The Political System -
59:28 - 59:32The numerous scandals that followed
the bursting of the bubble -
59:32 - 59:36also brought down the 1955 system
of one-party rule -
59:36 - 59:38by the Liberal Democratic Party.
-
59:40 - 59:42In the old system,
-
59:43 - 59:46politicians did not compete
by proposing different policies. -
59:47 - 59:49Policy was made by the bureaucrats,
-
59:50 - 59:54and politicians merely focused on
appeasing local constituencies -
59:54 - 59:56with public works projects.
-
59:59 - 60:01In October 1997,
-
60:01 - 60:04for the first time
in post-war history, -
60:04 - 60:07all policy initiatives
to stimulate the economy -
60:07 - 60:10originated from politicians,
not bureaucrats. -
60:15 - 60:17Then in early 2001
-
60:18 - 60:21a new type of politician
was swept to power. -
60:22 - 60:25NEWS: Japanese Government bonds
staged their biggest rally this month -
60:25 - 60:28as Junichiro Koizumi emerged
as the hot favorite -
60:29 - 60:31to become the country’s
next prime minister. -
60:31 - 60:34Junichiro Koizumi
became prime minister. -
60:35 - 60:38In terms of his popularity
and his policies -
60:38 - 60:41he is often compared to
Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan. -
60:42 - 60:44His message was simple,
-
60:44 - 60:47no recovery
without structural reform. -
60:54 - 60:57At the Geneva summit in
July 2001 he said: -
60:57 - 61:01“Some say recovery comes first,
without reforms. -
61:01 - 61:03But if the economy recovers,
-
61:04 - 61:06the will to reform will disappear.
-
61:08 - 61:10Therefore, after the elections
-
61:10 - 61:12I will continue with the plan
-
61:13 - 61:16of no growth without
structural reform.” -
61:19 - 61:20During 2001
-
61:20 - 61:24the message of no economic
growth without structural reform -
61:24 - 61:27had been broadcast
on an almost daily basis -
61:27 - 61:29on the nations TV screens.
-
61:30 - 61:33NEWS: The countries at the G7 summit
-
61:33 - 61:36are putting pressure on Japan
to implement structural reform. -
61:37 - 61:39In Korea there were riots,
-
61:39 - 61:43but then the government decided
to break up large conglomerates, -
61:43 - 61:45now their economy is recovering.
-
61:46 - 61:48Now is the time for Japan
-
61:48 - 61:50to implement structural reform.
-
61:55 - 61:58Now everyone believes
we need structural changes, -
61:58 - 62:01we need to scrap
Japanese style capitalism -
62:01 - 62:03to get a recovery,
why? -
62:03 - 62:05It seems we tried all the policies,
-
62:06 - 62:07nothing worked,
-
62:07 - 62:11so the Japanese style
economic system must be to blame, -
62:11 - 62:13so we better get rid of it.
-
62:13 - 62:18The Transformation
Of The Economy -
62:18 - 62:20Japan was shifting
its economic system -
62:21 - 62:23to a US style market economy,
-
62:23 - 62:25and that also meant
-
62:25 - 62:27that the center of the economy
-
62:27 - 62:30was being moved from
banks to stock markets. -
62:32 - 62:35To entice depositors to pull
their money out of banks -
62:36 - 62:38and into the risky stock market,
-
62:38 - 62:42reformers withdrew the guarantee
on all bank deposits, -
62:42 - 62:45while creating tax incentives
for stock Investments. -
62:48 - 62:51As US style shareholder capitalism
spread -
62:51 - 62:53unemployment rose significantly,
-
62:54 - 62:56income and wealth disparities rose
-
62:57 - 63:00as did suicides and
incidents of violent crime. -
63:03 - 63:05Then, in 2002
-
63:05 - 63:10the Bank of Japan strengthened its
efforts to worsen bank balance sheets -
63:10 - 63:13and force banks
to foreclose on their borrowers. -
63:13 - 63:15Until then, Hakuo Yanagisawa,
-
63:15 - 63:17minister for financial services,
-
63:17 - 63:21had resisted
the Bank of Japan inspired proposal -
63:21 - 63:24to inject tax money into banks,
-
63:24 - 63:26effectively nationalizing them,
-
63:26 - 63:28taking over their management
-
63:29 - 63:33and using this power
to call in loans from companies, -
63:33 - 63:36thus triggering many bankruptcies
of large firms. -
63:40 - 63:44Mr. Yanagisawa was duly sacked
by the prime minister -
63:45 - 63:47and replaced with Heizo Takenaka,
-
63:47 - 63:51Takenaka was a supporter of
the Bank of Japan’s plan -
63:51 - 63:54to increase
foreclosures of borrowers. -
63:54 - 63:57Minister Takenaka was trying
to implement a policy -
63:57 - 64:01to dramatically weaken
the balance sheets of the banks, -
64:01 - 64:05in order to allow him
to nationalize them. -
64:07 - 64:09Takenaka appointed a task force
-
64:09 - 64:11to oversee the banking policies,
-
64:12 - 64:15which included
two former Bank of Japan staff. -
64:15 - 64:17One of them, Takeshi Kimura,
-
64:17 - 64:21immediately demanded that
accounting changes be implemented -
64:21 - 64:24which would worsen
bank balance sheets -
64:24 - 64:27and render nationalization
unavoidable. -
64:28 - 64:31Takuro Morinaga,
a well-known economist in Tokyo, -
64:31 - 64:36argued forcefully that the Bank of
Japan inspired proposal by Takenaka -
64:36 - 64:39would not have
many indigenous beneficiaries, -
64:39 - 64:41but instead
-
64:41 - 64:44would mainly benefit
US vulture funds -
64:44 - 64:47specializing in the purchase
of distressed assets. -
64:50 - 64:53These vulture funds
had faced the difficulty -
64:53 - 64:55that despite over
200,000 bankruptcies, -
64:56 - 65:00few firms sufficiently large for
the vulture funds to be interested -
65:00 - 65:02were bankrupted.
-
65:08 - 65:13When Kimura’s and Fukui’s support
for the bankruptcy plan was voiced, -
65:13 - 65:16the former operated
a private company -
65:16 - 65:20that advised on the securitization
of distressed assets -
65:20 - 65:22and the latter was an adviser
-
65:22 - 65:25of the Wall Street investment firm
Goldman Sachs -
65:25 - 65:29one of the largest operators
of vulture funds in the world. -
65:30 - 65:31Mister Fukui,
-
65:31 - 65:35also his mentor Mister Mieno,
and his mentor Mister Maekawa, -
65:35 - 65:37and you’ve guessed it,
-
65:37 - 65:40these are some of the Princes of
the Yen that the book is all about. -
65:41 - 65:44They have said on the record
in the 80s and the 90s, -
65:44 - 65:46what is the goal of monetary policy?
-
65:46 - 65:48It is to change the
economic structure. -
65:48 - 65:51Now, how do you do that?
Well, you need a crisis. -
65:51 - 65:53And that’s really
what they have done, -
65:53 - 65:56Richard, we’re out of time
I have to cut you off. -
65:56 - 65:58WHISTLEBLOWER: I work for one of
the big city banks. -
65:59 - 66:03I used to be in charge of liasing
with the bank of Japan. -
66:03 - 66:05During the bubble era
-
66:05 - 66:09we were told every three months
by the Bank of Japan, -
66:09 - 66:12how much loans had to be
increased by. -
66:12 - 66:17The Bank of Japan window guidance
allocation was an order. -
66:18 - 66:21The cause of the bubble was
the window guidance, -
66:21 - 66:25and it was done on the order
of the Bank of Japan. -
66:26 - 66:28The department responsible
-
66:28 - 66:31for the window guidance quotas
at the Bank of Japan, -
66:31 - 66:33was called the Banking Department.
-
66:33 - 66:35And who was in charge of this?
-
66:35 - 66:37The man at the head
of this Banking Department -
66:38 - 66:40during the bubble from 86-89
-
66:40 - 66:42was Toshihiko Fukui.
-
66:42 - 66:44Mister Fukui, the current governor
of the Bank of Japan, -
66:45 - 66:48he’s the man who created the bubble.
-
66:49 - 66:52When Fukui had become
governor of the Bank of Japan, -
66:52 - 66:54he would say:
-
66:54 - 66:57“while destroying the
high-growth model, -
66:57 - 67:00I am building a model
that suits the new era.” -
67:04 - 67:07They have succeeded on all counts.
-
67:07 - 67:10If you look at the list
of their goals. -
67:10 - 67:13They’ve reached all those goals,
-
67:13 - 67:16destroy the Ministry of Finance,
break it up, -
67:16 - 67:19get an independent
supervisory agency, -
67:20 - 67:23reach independence for
the Bank of Japan itself -
67:23 - 67:26by changing the Bank of Japan law
-
67:26 - 67:30and engineer deep structural changes
in the economy -
67:30 - 67:34by shifting from
manufacturing to services, -
67:34 - 67:36opening up, deregulating,
-
67:36 - 67:38liberalizing, privatizing,
-
67:38 - 67:41the whole lot.
-
67:41 - 67:43In the 1920s,
-
67:43 - 67:47Japan’s economy in many ways
resembled today’s U.S economy -
67:47 - 67:50– with fierce competition,
aggressive hiring and firing, -
67:50 - 67:52takeover battles
between large corporations, -
67:53 - 67:54few bureaucratic controls,
-
67:55 - 67:57strong shareholders that
demanded high dividends, -
67:57 - 68:00and corporate funding from
the markets, not banks. -
68:01 - 68:03Yet throughout the postwar era,
-
68:03 - 68:06Japan’s economy
had been the opposite: -
68:07 - 68:10highly regulated,
with cartels limiting competition, -
68:10 - 68:13bank financing and cross shareholdings
-
68:13 - 68:16reducing shareholder power,
-
68:16 - 68:19no takeovers,
and a frozen labor market -
68:20 - 68:23with lifetime employment
and seniority pay. -
68:26 - 68:31It was claimed that to end the
recession and improve performance, -
68:31 - 68:33Japan must shift from
welfare capitalism -
68:34 - 68:36back to shareholder capitalism.
-
68:36 - 68:38Yet it remains unclear
-
68:38 - 68:41why a country that had run
a consistent and significant -
68:41 - 68:43balance of trade surplus
-
68:43 - 68:47would need to change
its economic system -
68:47 - 68:50to become more competitive.
-
68:51 - 68:57The Southeast Asian Crisis
-
69:04 - 69:08Japan was not the only
high-performance economy in Asia -
69:08 - 69:10that in the 1990s
-
69:10 - 69:15found itself in the deepest
recession since the great depression. -
69:20 - 69:24In 1997, the currencies of the
Southeast Asian Tiger Economies -
69:24 - 69:29could not maintain a fixed
exchange rate with the US dollar. -
69:29 - 69:34They collapsed by between
60 and 80% within a year. -
69:38 - 69:42The causes for this crash
went as far back as 1993. -
69:43 - 69:44In that year,
-
69:44 - 69:49the Asian Tiger Economies,
South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia -
69:49 - 69:53implemented a policy of aggressive
deregulation of the capital account -
69:53 - 69:57and the establishment of
international banking facilities -
69:57 - 70:00which enabled the corporate
and banking sectors -
70:00 - 70:03to borrow liberally from abroad
-
70:03 - 70:06–the first time in the post-war era
-
70:06 - 70:08that borrowers could do so.
-
70:15 - 70:19In reality, there was no need
for the Asian Tiger Economies -
70:19 - 70:21to borrow money from abroad.
-
70:22 - 70:24All the money necessary
for domestic investment -
70:25 - 70:27could be created at home.
-
70:28 - 70:31Indeed, the pressure
to liberalize capital flows -
70:31 - 70:33came from outside.
-
70:36 - 70:38Since the early 1990s,
-
70:38 - 70:42the IMF, the World Trade
Organization, and the US Treasury -
70:42 - 70:44had been lobbying these countries,
-
70:44 - 70:48to allow domestic firms
to borrow from abroad. -
70:49 - 70:52They argued that
neoclassical economics had proven -
70:53 - 70:56that free markets and
free capital movement -
70:56 - 70:58increased economic growth.
-
71:01 - 71:04Once the capital accounts
had been deregulated, -
71:05 - 71:08the central banks set about
creating irresistible incentives -
71:08 - 71:10for domestic firms
to borrow from abroad. -
71:11 - 71:14By making it more expensive to borrow
-
71:14 - 71:16in their own domestic currencies
-
71:16 - 71:19than it was to borrow in US dollars.
-
71:20 - 71:24The domestic local interest rates
-
71:24 - 71:28were higher than
the US dollar interest rate, -
71:28 - 71:32and the exchange rate
was virtually fixed. -
71:33 - 71:36It was the government
and the central bank -
71:36 - 71:39that said we will
maintain the exchange rate. -
71:39 - 71:42That’s right, central banks
of Thailand -
71:42 - 71:44and other East-Asian countries
-
71:44 - 71:47resisted exchange rate adjustment
-
71:47 - 71:50and they tried to send a signal
-
71:50 - 71:54that they would protect
the exchange rate. -
71:58 - 72:01The central banks emphasized
in their public statements -
72:01 - 72:06that they would maintain fixed
exchange rates with the US dollar. -
72:07 - 72:10So that borrowers
did not have to worry about -
72:10 - 72:13paying back more
in their domestic currencies -
72:13 - 72:16than they had originally borrowed.
-
72:17 - 72:19When I was in Thailand.
-
72:19 - 72:22I went straight to the
Bank of Thailand and asked them: -
72:23 - 72:26“were there any informal
credit guidance schemes?” -
72:26 - 72:29And they were surprised
that I asked this question. -
72:29 - 72:31Because of my study in Japan,
-
72:31 - 72:34I thought perhaps
there was something similar. -
72:35 - 72:36And they told me,
-
72:37 - 72:38it was a young staff
-
72:38 - 72:41who perhaps wasn’t aware
of the politics involved, -
72:41 - 72:44he said: “yes, yes, we have
this credit planning scheme.” -
72:45 - 72:48Banks were ordered
to increase lending. -
72:48 - 72:51But they were faced
with less loan demand -
72:51 - 72:54from the productive sectors
of the economy, -
72:54 - 72:57because these firms had
been given incentives -
72:58 - 73:00to borrow from abroad instead.
-
73:00 - 73:03They therefore had to resort
-
73:03 - 73:07to increasing their lending
to higher risk borrowers. -
73:10 - 73:12Imports began to shrink,
-
73:12 - 73:15because the central banks had agreed
-
73:15 - 73:18to peg their currencies
to the US dollar, -
73:18 - 73:21the economies became
less competitive, -
73:21 - 73:24but their current account balance
was maintained -
73:25 - 73:27due to the foreign issued loans,
-
73:28 - 73:32which count as exports in the
balance of payments statistics. -
73:37 - 73:39When speculators began to sell
-
73:39 - 73:42the Thai baht, the Korean won,
and the Indonesian rupee, -
73:42 - 73:45the respective central banks
-
73:45 - 73:48responded with futile attempts
to maintain the peg -
73:49 - 73:52until they had squandered
virtually all -
73:52 - 73:54of their foreign exchange reserves.
-
73:55 - 73:58This gave foreign lenders
ample opportunity -
73:58 - 74:02to withdraw their money at
the overvalued exchange rates. -
74:04 - 74:06The central banks knew
-
74:06 - 74:10that if the countries ran out
of foreign exchange reserves, -
74:11 - 74:14they would have to call in
the IMF to avoid default. -
74:14 - 74:16And once the IMF came in,
-
74:16 - 74:18the central banks knew
-
74:18 - 74:21what this Washington-based
institution would demand -
74:21 - 74:24–for its demands in such cases
have been the same -
74:25 - 74:27for the previous three decades.
-
74:27 - 74:31The central banks
would be made independent. -
74:33 - 74:35On the 16th of July
-
74:35 - 74:38the Thai finance minister
took a plane to Tokyo -
74:39 - 74:41to ask Japan for a bailout.
-
74:46 - 74:51At the time Japan had US$213
billion in foreign exchange reserves -
74:51 - 74:54–more than the total resources
of the IMF. -
74:56 - 74:58They were willing to help.
-
74:58 - 75:02But Washington stopped
Japan’s initiative, -
75:02 - 75:05any solution to the
emerging Asian crisis -
75:05 - 75:09had to come from Washington
via the IMF. -
75:13 - 75:16NEWS: After 2 months of
speculative attacks, -
75:16 - 75:19the Thai government floated the baht.
-
75:25 - 75:28The IMF to the rescue
-
75:28 - 75:30The IMF to date
-
75:30 - 75:32has promised almost $120 billion
-
75:33 - 75:35to the embattled economies of
-
75:35 - 75:37Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea.
-
75:37 - 75:41Immediately after arrival
in the crisis stricken countries, -
75:41 - 75:45the IMF teams set up offices
inside the central banks, -
75:45 - 75:50from where they dictated
what amounted to terms of surrender. -
75:53 - 75:56The IMF demanded
a string of policies, -
75:56 - 76:00including curbs on central bank
and bank credit creation, -
76:01 - 76:03major legal changes
-
76:03 - 76:05and sharp rises in interest rates.
-
76:08 - 76:10As interest rates rose,
-
76:11 - 76:14high-risk borrowers began
to default on their loans. -
76:17 - 76:20Burdened with large amounts
of bad debts, -
76:20 - 76:23the banking systems of
Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia -
76:23 - 76:25were virtually bankrupt.
-
76:26 - 76:28Even otherwise healthy firms
-
76:29 - 76:32started to suffer from
the widening credit crunch. -
76:32 - 76:34Corporate bankruptcies soared.
-
76:34 - 76:39Unemployment rose to the
highest levels since the 1930s. -
76:44 - 76:48The role of the fund in coming
to the rescue of ailing nations -
76:48 - 76:50has been fiercely debated,
-
76:50 - 76:52some have even accused the IMF
-
76:52 - 76:54of making Asia’s
economic crisis worse. -
76:54 - 76:57Even if they have to
subvert our economy -
76:57 - 77:00they will do so just to prove
that they are right, -
77:00 - 77:03the IMF has not been very helpful.
-
77:03 - 77:05The IMF knew well
-
77:05 - 77:08what the consequences
of its policies would be. -
77:08 - 77:10In the Korean case,
-
77:10 - 77:14they even had detailed
but undisclosed studies prepared -
77:14 - 77:16that had calculated
-
77:16 - 77:19just how many Korean companies
would go bankrupt -
77:19 - 77:23if interest rates were to rise
by five percentage points. -
77:24 - 77:27The IMF’s first agreement with Korea
-
77:27 - 77:32demanded a rise of exactly five
percentage points in interest rates. -
77:35 - 77:38The IMF policies
are clearly not aimed -
77:38 - 77:41at creating economic recoveries
in the Asian countries, -
77:41 - 77:44they pursue
quite a different agenda, -
77:44 - 77:48and that is to change the economic,
political and social systems -
77:48 - 77:49in those countries.
-
77:50 - 77:53In fact, the IMF deals prevent
the countries concerned, -
77:53 - 77:55like Korea, Thailand, to reflate.
-
77:56 - 77:59Hmmm, interesting, you are saying
it’s making the crises worse -
77:59 - 78:02and you’re suggesting that
the IMF has a hidden agenda. -
78:02 - 78:04It’s not very hidden this agenda,
-
78:04 - 78:06because the IMF clearly demands
-
78:06 - 78:09that the Asian countries concerned
have to change the laws -
78:09 - 78:13so that foreign interests can buy
anything from banks to land. -
78:13 - 78:17And in fact, the banking systems
can only be recapitalized, -
78:17 - 78:19according to the IMF deals,
-
78:19 - 78:22by using foreign money.
-
78:22 - 78:24Which is not necessary at all,
-
78:24 - 78:27because as long as these countries
have central banks, -
78:28 - 78:31they could just print money and
recapitalize the banking systems, -
78:32 - 78:34you don’t need
foreign money for that. -
78:34 - 78:39So the agenda is clearly to crack
open Asia for foreign interests. -
78:40 - 78:45The IMF demanded that troubled
banks would not be bailed out, -
78:45 - 78:49but instead closed down and sold
off cheaply as distressed assets, -
78:50 - 78:52often to large
US investment banks. -
78:53 - 78:56NEWS: One positive
coming out of Thailand -
78:56 - 78:59is that they will be
auctioning off some major assets -
78:59 - 79:01from 56 finance companies,
-
79:02 - 79:04in your view should eehm,
-
79:05 - 79:08some of the owners
of the 56 finance companies -
79:08 - 79:10be allowed to buy back their assets?
-
79:12 - 79:13In most cases,
-
79:13 - 79:16the IMF dictated letters of intent
-
79:16 - 79:18explicitly stated that the banks
-
79:18 - 79:21had to be sold to foreign investors.
-
79:24 - 79:26And let me emphasize
in that respect, -
79:27 - 79:30these reform programs are the key,
the absolute key -
79:30 - 79:32to restoring financial stability.
-
79:32 - 79:34NEWS: For the first time ever,
-
79:35 - 79:37South Korea closed five banks
-
79:37 - 79:40in a major step towards meeting
its IMF mandate. -
79:41 - 79:44The number of commercial banks
has declined, -
79:44 - 79:47has been reduced
as a result of closures, -
79:47 - 79:50mergers and acquisitions,
-
79:50 - 79:53and foreign strategic investors
are now in, -
79:53 - 79:56which is a remarkable change.
-
80:03 - 80:06In Asia,
government organized bailouts -
80:06 - 80:09to keep ailing
financial institutions alive -
80:09 - 80:11were not allowed.
-
80:11 - 80:13But when a similar crisis
-
80:14 - 80:16struck back home
in America a year later, -
80:17 - 80:20the very same institutions
reacted differently. -
80:21 - 80:27The Bailout of
Long Term Capital Management -
80:28 - 80:30The Connecticut-based hedge fund
-
80:30 - 80:32Long-Term Capital Management,
-
80:33 - 80:34which accepted as clients
-
80:35 - 80:39only high net worth individual
investors and institutions, -
80:39 - 80:42had leveraged its $5 billion
in client capital -
80:43 - 80:45by more than 25 times,
-
80:46 - 80:48borrowing more than $100 billion
-
80:48 - 80:51from the world’s banks.
-
80:54 - 80:56When its losses
threatened to undermine -
80:57 - 80:59the banks that had lent to it,
-
80:59 - 81:02with the possibility of
a systemic banking crisis -
81:02 - 81:05that would endanger the
US financial system and economy, -
81:06 - 81:09the Federal Reserve
organized a cartel like bailout -
81:09 - 81:12by leaning on Wall Street
and international banks -
81:12 - 81:14to contribute funds
-
81:14 - 81:16so that it could avoid default.
-
81:19 - 81:22You’re right, the views from
Washington and New York -
81:22 - 81:24certainly seemed quite flexible,
-
81:25 - 81:28because soon after they told
all the Asian countries -
81:28 - 81:30“no bailouts for
financial institutions,” -
81:31 - 81:33when Long Term Capital Management,
-
81:33 - 81:36a hedge fund in New York
almost went bust, -
81:36 - 81:38suddenly a bailout was organized,
-
81:38 - 81:42contradicting what they had
just said to the Asian countries. -
81:42 - 81:46But they said that no public
money was used for LTCM -
81:46 - 81:51But the meeting was held famously
inside the Federal Reserve. -
81:52 - 81:56Why would the United States
make demands on foreign nations -
81:56 - 81:58in the name of the free market,
-
81:58 - 82:00when it has no intention
-
82:01 - 82:04of enforcing the same rules
within its own borders? -
82:06 - 82:08The examples of the
Japanese and Asian crises -
82:09 - 82:12illustrate how crises
can be engineered -
82:12 - 82:16to facilitate the redistribution
of economic ownership, -
82:16 - 82:20and to implement legal,
structural and political change. -
82:22 - 82:24Today similar events are at work
-
82:25 - 82:26in the Eurozone area.
-
82:27 - 82:32The European Debt Crisis.
-
82:32 - 82:35Countries within
the Euro currency bloc -
82:36 - 82:39have forfeited their right
to a national currency -
82:39 - 82:42and handed this power to
the European Central Bank. -
82:42 - 82:45NEWS: With me here in the studio
is Richard Werner, -
82:45 - 82:48he is a professor at
Southampton University, -
82:48 - 82:51What’s your advice to the ECB,
-
82:51 - 82:55they’re meeting tomorrow,
what would you be telling them? -
82:56 - 83:00Well, again, they have to focus on
the quantity of credit creation -
83:00 - 83:02more than interest rates.
-
83:03 - 83:06The ECB has a lot to learn
from its past mistakes, -
83:07 - 83:09because I don’t think
it really watched -
83:10 - 83:12credit creation carefully enough.
-
83:12 - 83:15In Spain, Ireland,
we had massive credit expansion -
83:15 - 83:18under the watch of the ECB,
-
83:18 - 83:22interest rates of course
are the same in the Eurozone, -
83:22 - 83:25but the quantity of credit cycle
is very different. -
83:25 - 83:28There’s one interest rate
for the whole euro area, -
83:28 - 83:31but in 2002 the ECB told the
Bundesbank -
83:32 - 83:35to reduce its credit creation
by the biggest amount in its history -
83:36 - 83:38and told the Irish central bank
to print money -
83:39 - 83:40as if there was no tomorrow.
-
83:41 - 83:43What is going to happen?
Same interest rate, -
83:44 - 83:46is it the same growth? No.
-
83:46 - 83:48Recession in Germany,
boom in Ireland. -
83:50 - 83:52From 2004, under the ECB’s watch,
-
83:53 - 83:56bank credit growth in Ireland,
Greece, Portugal and Spain -
83:56 - 83:59increased by over 20% per annum
-
83:59 - 84:02and property prices sky rocketed.
-
84:06 - 84:08When bank credit fell,
-
84:08 - 84:10property prices collapsed,
-
84:10 - 84:12developers went bankrupt,
-
84:13 - 84:14and the banking systems
-
84:15 - 84:18of Ireland, Portugal, Spain and
Greece became insolvent. -
84:19 - 84:22The ECB could have
prevented these bubbles, -
84:22 - 84:27just as it could have ended the
ensuing banking and economic crises. -
84:27 - 84:29But it refused to do so
-
84:29 - 84:33until major political concessions
had been made, -
84:33 - 84:37such as the transfer of fiscal
and budgeting powers -
84:37 - 84:41from each sovereign state
to the European Union. -
84:42 - 84:44In both Spain and Greece
-
84:44 - 84:48youth unemployment
has been pushed up to 50%, -
84:48 - 84:51forcing many youths
to seek employment abroad. -
84:52 - 84:56Greek doctors for whose education
Greek taxpayers have paid -
84:56 - 84:58now work in Germany.
-
85:01 - 85:05The deliberations of the ECB's
decision-making bodies are secret. -
85:06 - 85:08The mere attempt
at influencing the ECB -
85:09 - 85:12–for instance through
democratic debate and discussion– -
85:12 - 85:16is forbidden according to
the Maastricht Treaty. -
85:18 - 85:20The ECB is an
international organization -
85:21 - 85:24that is above and outside
the laws and jurisdictions -
85:25 - 85:27of any individual nation.
-
85:27 - 85:30Its senior staff
carry diplomatic passports -
85:30 - 85:34and the files and documents inside
the European Central Bank -
85:35 - 85:37cannot be searched or impounded
-
85:37 - 85:40by any police force or
public prosecutor. -
85:44 - 85:46The ECB is well known
among economists -
85:47 - 85:49as one of the world’s most powerful
-
85:50 - 85:52and least transparent central banks,
-
85:53 - 85:54yet its former president
-
85:55 - 85:56Jean-Claude Trichet
-
85:57 - 85:58dealt with this problem
-
85:59 - 86:02by merely asserting that
there was no problem: -
86:04 - 86:07”the ECB is one of the
most transparent -
86:07 - 86:09central banks in the world
-
86:09 - 86:11and has helped define
-
86:12 - 86:15the state-of-the-art
of central banking -
86:15 - 86:18in this domain,” he claimed.
-
86:18 - 86:22World Economic Forum
- Davos, Switzerland. -
86:22 - 86:24My name is Richard Werner
I am an economist, -
86:25 - 86:27my question is for monsieur Trichet,
-
86:27 - 86:29The question is,
-
86:29 - 86:32where in the Maastricht treaty
or ECB statutes -
86:32 - 86:35does it say that it is the job
of the ECB -
86:35 - 86:39to back structural reform or
any other political agenda. -
86:40 - 86:43I said very, very clearly, and we
have always said very, very clearly, -
86:43 - 86:46that we had no responsibility
in this domain. -
86:46 - 86:50We have a voice,
and we say what we think. -
86:50 - 86:54And perhaps if we can help
in explaining from our side -
86:54 - 86:57to the general people that
they would be better off, -
86:57 - 87:01perhaps it would help
Europe embarking -
87:01 - 87:04in this implementation of
structural reforms, -
87:05 - 87:07which is so important,
-
87:07 - 87:09and there is a consensus on that,
-
87:10 - 87:12the diagnosis again, is ehh ehh ehh
-
87:12 - 87:15a very very very large consensus
-
87:15 - 87:18on this eh, on this point.
-
87:25 - 87:27The European Commission,
-
87:27 - 87:28an unelected group
-
87:29 - 87:32whose aim is to build a
United States of Europe -
87:32 - 87:34with all the trappings
of a unified state, -
87:35 - 87:38has an interest in
weakening individual governments -
87:38 - 87:42and the influence of the
democratic parliaments of Europe. -
87:45 - 87:48It turns out that the evidence
for central-bank independence -
87:49 - 87:52that was relied upon
in the Maastricht Treaty -
87:52 - 87:56derived from a single study
that was commissioned -
87:56 - 87:59by none other than
the European Commission itself, -
87:59 - 88:03published in 1992 under the
name “ one market, one money” -
88:03 - 88:05the study purported to demonstrate
-
88:06 - 88:09that central bank independence
led to low inflation. -
88:09 - 88:12James Forder, an Oxford academic,
-
88:12 - 88:14has since demonstrated
-
88:14 - 88:17that this study was manipulated
-
88:17 - 88:19to obtain the desired result.
-
88:22 - 88:25The story we’re being told
by the central banks -
88:25 - 88:27does not add up,
-
88:27 - 88:30and there is evidence that
central banks work differently -
88:31 - 88:35from what they would like us
to believe as to how they work. -
88:36 - 88:37The world over,
-
88:38 - 88:41central banks hold significant,
yet little understood powers. -
88:42 - 88:45Often independent,
unaccountable and obscure, -
88:46 - 88:48central banks operate in the shadows,
-
88:49 - 88:51yet their actions affect us all.
-
88:53 - 88:56Central banks in almost
all countries worldwide, -
88:56 - 89:00and the IMF has helped
a lot in achieving this, -
89:00 - 89:02they have become totally independent
-
89:02 - 89:04and in practice not accountable
-
89:05 - 89:07to any democratic institution.
-
89:07 - 89:09And accountability to parliament
-
89:09 - 89:12is usually minor and
in practice meaningless. -
89:12 - 89:14Whether it is the Bank of Japan,
-
89:14 - 89:17the Federal Reserve,
the Bank of England -
89:17 - 89:19or the European Central Bank,
-
89:19 - 89:22examples of central bank deception
abound. -
89:24 - 89:26In the United States in the 1920s,
-
89:26 - 89:29banks were encouraged
to create money -
89:29 - 89:31and give it to speculators,
-
89:32 - 89:34the resulting depression
-
89:34 - 89:36persuaded
the freedom loving Americans -
89:37 - 89:39that a decentralized federal system
-
89:39 - 89:41without strong national controls,
-
89:41 - 89:43could not work.
-
89:46 - 89:49In the 1990s
the Japanese were persuaded -
89:49 - 89:51that their economic system
-
89:51 - 89:55which had brought considerable
prosperity and equality, -
89:55 - 89:57needed to be changed into
-
89:57 - 90:00a so-called free market system.
-
90:00 - 90:04And while Japan's transformation
was not yet complete -
90:05 - 90:07the central bankers struck again,
-
90:07 - 90:11with an IMF led raid
on the Asian Tiger economies. -
90:16 - 90:18The present European debt crises
-
90:19 - 90:22is yet another example
of central bank deception. -
90:24 - 90:26To create a public consensus
-
90:26 - 90:29for the need for structural reform
-
90:29 - 90:31by purposefully creating a recession
-
90:31 - 90:33and then needlessly prolonging it,
-
90:34 - 90:36must constitute an abuse of power.
-
90:40 - 90:43Do citizens really
want to be manipulated -
90:43 - 90:46in such a costly and
dishonest manner? -
91:13 - 91:15The End
- Title:
- Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy
- Description:
-
"Only power that is hidden, is power that endures."
Central Banks are some of the most secretive and misunderstood institutions in the world. What powers do they wield? Who’s interests do they serve? How do their actions affect our everyday lives?
Set in 20th Century Japan, the documentary explores the role and power of Central Banks, and how they can be used to change a country's economic, political and social structures.
A documentary based on a book by Professor Richard Werner.
“Mastery of filmmaking. An engaging and dynamic narrative supported by visual aesthetics”
Simeon Roberts - Film Critic, http://filmgods.co.uk/
"Essential viewing if you've any interest at all in economics or politics" - Steve Morrissey
Film Reviwer & Critic, http://www.moviesteve.com/review-princes-of-the-yen-2014/“Blows open the widely held consensus that ‘independent’ central banks are a force for economic good." Josh Ryan-Collins - New Economics Foundation and co-author of “Where Does Money Come From?"
"A fascinating look at the need for better public understanding of just how much money can affect the world we live in.” Ben Dyson - Founder Positive Money & co-author of ‘Modernising Money’
Website: http://princesoftheyen.com/
- Video Language:
- English, British
- Duration:
- 01:32:39
Mike Horwath edited English subtitles for Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy | ||
Mike Horwath edited English subtitles for Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy |