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Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy

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    This is a film about
    the power of central banks.
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    Central Banks have
    the power to create
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    economic, political and
    social change.
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    This is how they do it…
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    Pearl Harbor - 7th December 1941
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    A film based on a book
    by Professor Richard Werner
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    Long live the imperial army.
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    Princes of the Yen
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    Central Banks and
    the Transformation of the Economy
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    I pledge allegiance
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    to the flag of the
    United States of America.
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    The atom bomb.
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    The American Occupation
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    LOUDSPEAKER: We will arrive at
    Yokohama at 09:30 hours,
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    debarkation priority will be
    in accordance with
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    the debarkation schedule.
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    General Douglas MacArthur arrived
    at Atsugi Naval Aerodrome,
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    near Yokohama, on August 30, 1945.
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    As he emerged from his aircraft,
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    he paused at the top of the steps,
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    stuck one hand in his hip pockets,
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    tightened his jaws around
    his corncob pipe,
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    and surveyed the conquered lands.
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    This pose was repeated several times
    from different angles,
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    so that all the press photographers
    could get a decent shot.
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    Democracy was to be instilled
    in the Japanese people,
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    as though
    they had never heard of it.
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    NEWS: Our problem’s in the brain
    inside of the Japanese head,
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    these brains like our brains
    can do good things,
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    or bad things,
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    all depending on the kind of
    ideas that are put inside.
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    Kabuki plays featuring loyal samurai
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    were banned or heavily censored,
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    as were books and films about the
    bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
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    Satirical cartoons of MacArthur
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    and mention of occupation censorship
    were strictly forbidden.
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    WAR CRIMES TRIBUNAL: The commission
    finds you guilty as charged
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    and sentences you
    to death by hanging.
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    NEWS: Yamashita thanked the commission
    for the fairness of his trial.
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    Prime Minister at the time of
    the war in the Pacific,
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    General Tojo,
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    remarked during his trial,
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    “none of those Japanese, would dare
    act against the Emperor’s will.”
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    The cross-examination
    was immediately cut short,
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    and a week later
    Tojo dutifully stated
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    that the Emperor had always loved
    and wanted peace.
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    NEWS: General Hideki Tojo,
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    who assumed official responsibility
    for the conduct of the war
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    and did everything possible
    to exonerate his emperor.
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    MacArthur would later remark
    to the U.S Senate,
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    that in terms of modern civilization
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    the Japanese were like
    a 12-year-old boy.
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    You are interested in the unknown,
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    the mysterious, the unexplainable,
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    that is why you are here.
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    When the war was over
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    bank’s loan books had deteriorated.
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    The assets the banks held
    were mainly war bonds
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    and loans to destroyed industries.
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    As such the whole banking sector
    was virtually bankrupt.
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    This problem was easily solved by
    the Bank of Japan,
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    all it had to do
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    was buy the banking sector’s
    bad papers
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    with newly created reserves.
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    Giving them good money for assets,
    which were often worthless.
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    The first two post war
    central bank governors
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    were nominated by the US occupation.
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    Eikichi Araki was appointed
    the first post-war governor
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    of the Bank of Japan.
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    But soon after taking up this post,
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    he was indicted by
    war crimes prosecutors
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    and had to resign.
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    Then in 1951,
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    after a general amnesty on suspected
    war criminals filling public offices,
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    he was made ambassador to
    the United States.
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    On returning from his post
    as ambassador in 1954,
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    Araki was again made governor
    of the central bank.
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    After the 1951 amnesty
    for war criminals,
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    much of the Japanese
    wartime bureaucracy
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    was returned
    to their wartime positions.
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    This included wartime politicians
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    and most home ministry bureaucrats
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    who had been in charge
    of the thought police,
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    a number of whom
    moved to the education ministry.
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    US ARMY: Japan is the key
    to the fate of the Far-East,
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    once again for the second time
    in the march of modern history,
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    those words have urgent reality.
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    In order to avert
    the kind of rural unrest
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    that was helping the communists
    in China,
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    the Americans initiated
    the redistribution of land
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    from big landowners to their tenants.
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    The capitalist elite in Japan,
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    known as the Zaibatsu,
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    were purged as supporters of
    a criminal war
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    and prohibited from
    further business activity.
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    The fascist policies of the 30s
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    that the reform fascist bureaucrats
    could not implement during the war,
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    the US occupation
    managed to complete,
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    like the land reform
    and the zaibatsu policy.
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    Yes it’s a very funny encounter
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    of Japanese wartime fascists
    and American new dealers.
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    The Post-Occupation Political System
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    NEWS: The Diet, home of Japan’s
    Senate and House of Representatives.
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    NEWS: In Japan,
    fanatic students and leftist groups
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    rioted for days on end
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    seeking to block the mutual
    defense treaty with America.
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    The socialist deputies
    staged a riot in the diet itself.
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    The police in restoring order,
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    also evicted the socialists.
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    NEWS: The speaker was carried to
    the platform and called to order
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    the session that approved the treaty.
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    In 1957,
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    the former Class A war crimes
    suspect, Kishi Nobusuke,
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    became prime minister of Japan.
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    He had been General Tojo’s
    minister of commerce and industry
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    during the war,
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    where his responsibilities
    had ranged
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    from munitions to slave labor.
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    While Hitlers’ war economy minister
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    was in Berlin Spandau prison,
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    Albert Speer,
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    his Japanese wartime colleague
    was prime minister of the country.
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    Although Kishi became a defender
    of democracy after the war,
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    before and during the war,
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    he had described himself
    as a national socialist.
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    With money from crime syndicates,
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    industrial corporations
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    and CIA slush funds,
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    Kishi built
    the Liberal Democratic Party
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    into a powerful political machine.
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    In Japan,
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    many of the most important post-war
    economic and political leaders
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    came from an elite group
    of wartime bureaucrats,
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    the very same people
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    who had pushed Japan
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    into the war.
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    The Liberal Democratic Party
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    stayed in power for almost 40 years.
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    NEWS: Welcome home in Japanese
    to these American soldiers.
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    After a tour of duty in Korea
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    they are returning to
    their base in Japan,
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    where once a short time before
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    they were stationed as
    occupation troops.
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    And how do they return?
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    How are they received by the
    people whose land they occupy?
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    Not as overlords,
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    not as antagonists,
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    not as men who are distrusted
    and feared and resented,
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    but as friends.
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    The War Economy System
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    In Tokyo's Central Chiyoda Ward,
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    the Ministry of Finance
    had its headquarters.
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    From here,
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    the ministry controlled most aspects
    of economic life in Japan.
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    The Ministry of Finance was
    the most powerful ministry
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    and the Bank of Japan had
    to report to the Ministry of Finance.
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    Ministry of Finance officials
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    elicited deep and hushed
    exclamations of awe and respect
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    and former ministry bureaucrats
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    obtained influential posts as heads
    of public and private institutions.
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    But in one area
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    the ministry did not have
    actual control,
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    and that was the quantity of
    credit creation and its allocation,
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    which was decided by
    the Japanese Central Bank,
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    the Bank of Japan.
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    They told the Ministry of Finance
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    and the public and the journalists;
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    “we run monetary policy
    through interest rates.”
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    And they let the Ministry of Finance
    reign
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    in their interest rate policies,
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    but the rule was done through,
    not interest rates,
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    which is the price of money,
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    it was done through
    the quantity of money.
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    Window Guidance:
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    A process by which a
    central bank imposes
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    credit growth and allocation quotas
    on commercial banks.
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    It worked this way,
    it’s called window guidance.
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    The Bank of Japan just told the banks
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    how much they will have to
    lend in the coming quarter
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    and who, which sector
    of the economy to lend to.
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    it's credit allocation,
    credit control.
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    The Bank of Japan gave quarterly
    instructions to individual banks,
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    on the value of loans
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    and which industrial sectors
    they should be allocated to.
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    All loans were broken down
    in sectors and sub-sectors,
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    and large-scale borrowers
    had to be listed by name.
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    The Bank of Japan could decide
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    which projects should be encouraged
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    and which should be discouraged,
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    by dictating to whom and for what
    banks could issue loans.
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    This was the war economy system
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    adapted to the production of
    consumer goods.
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    NEWS: The 95 million people of Japan
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    now enjoy a national income
    second only to the United States
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    and the more prosperous nations
    of Western Europe.
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    It’s not a good system for
    capitalists,
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    But for the population
    it created a lot of wealth,
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    very even income and
    wealth distribution,
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    very high growth,
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    and very rapidly raised quality
    of life and standards of living.
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    In 1959 alone,
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    the economy expanded by 17%.
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    But a result of the
    war economy system
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    was that entire industrial sectors
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    would compete not for profit,
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    but for market share.
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    Companies would fight
    until bankruptcy
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    to gain market share.
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    This phenomenon was soon recognized
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    and called “excess competition”.
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    The solution was the creation of
    explicit or implicit cartels.
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    In the banking sector,
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    window guidance acted as the
    cartel control mechanism,
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    because the Bank of Japan
    could dictate
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    the number and value of loans
    that banks issued.
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    As a result bank rankings never
    changed during the post war era,
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    except after mergers.
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    According to one banker,
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    “if it were not for window guidance,
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    we would compete until hara-kiri.”
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    The War Economy and
    International Trade
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    NEWS: The US current account deficit
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    surges to its highest level
    in 9 years,
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    the size of the increase took
    many economists by surprise.
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    While cartels controlled
    competition within Japan,
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    there were no such limits when
    it came to international markets.
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    Japanese corporations
    soon became dominant
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    in many markets in the world.
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    In America, formal congressional
    hearings were held
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    under the title
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    “Japanese productivity–lessons
    for America.”
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    Leading economic theories indicate
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    that only free markets
    can lead to success.
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    But Japan rose within decades
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    to become the second
    largest economy in the world
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    without relying only on the
    “invisible hand” of free markets.
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    Japan’s postwar economy
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    was a fully mobilized war economy,
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    with production shifted from weapons
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    to consumer goods.
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    “It is better for the Bank of Japan
    not to attract attention
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    and remain as quiet as
    the forest of a rural shrine.”
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    (Hisato Ichimada,
    18th Governor of the Bank of Japan)
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    Since the Bank of Japan presented
    itself as a champion of free markets,
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    window guidance was an embarrassment.
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    Official publications either
    failed to mention it
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    or downplayed its role
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    by calling the credit controls
    “voluntary”.
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    Whenever the Ministry of Finance
    would enquire
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    about the Bank of Japan’s credit
    creation and allocation policy,
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    Bank of Japan staff
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    would engage in complex discussions
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    full of technical jargon
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    to make the process appear
    impenetrable to non-experts.
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    In November 1965,
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    the first batch of Japanese government
    bonds came onto the market.
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    From now on,
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    when politicians
    wanted to spend more,
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    they would no longer put
    pressure on the Bank of Japan,
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    but instead exert it on
    the Ministry of Finance.
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    So the ministry
    would ultimately preside
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    over an ever-increasing
    national debt mountain.
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    Central Bankers call for reform
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    The 1980s was an era of
    financial deregulation
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    in the industrialized world.
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    Most industrialized countries
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    lifted their restrictions on the
    movement of capital.
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    In Japan,
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    Tadashi Sasaki,
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    a former governor
    of the Bank of Japan
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    called for a five-year plan
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    for the transformation and
    liberalization of the Japanese economy.
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    Then, in 1986,
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    the "Advisory Group on
    Economic Restructuring"
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    headed by the former Bank of Japan
    governor, Haruo Maekawa,
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    proposed a ten year
    economic reform plan
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    designed to make the
    living standards of Japanese
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    more comparable to those
    enjoyed in the West.
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    The proposal stated that:
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    "the time has now come
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    for Japan to make
    a historical transformation
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    in its traditional policies on
    economic management
  • 20:00 - 20:03
    and the nation’s lifestyle.
  • 20:03 - 20:06
    There can be no further
    development for Japan
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    without this transformation."
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    The report
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    read like a wish list by
    US trade negotiators.
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    It started with calls for
    administrative reform
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    and the abolition of
    bureaucratic powers.
  • 20:32 - 20:34
    The goal was the transformation
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    of the entire body politic,
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    the abolition of the
    war economy system,
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    and the introduction of a
    US style free-market economy.
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    Those members of the advisory group
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    who uttered dissent,
  • 20:50 - 20:52
    were relieved of their duties.
  • 20:54 - 20:57
    Reports in the press
    were highly critical.
  • 20:58 - 21:02
    Observers recognized
    the radical nature of the plan.
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    It seemed far too ambitious.
  • 21:05 - 21:07
    It was calling
  • 21:07 - 21:09
    for a wholesale revolution
  • 21:09 - 21:11
    of all parts
  • 21:11 - 21:15
    of the Japanese economic,
    political, and social system.
  • 21:19 - 21:23
    Although the report was clear
    about what was wanted,
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    it was embarrassingly silent
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    about how these goals
    would be achieved.
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    The only clue hidden
    in the report was,
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    “in the implementation
    of these recommendations,
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    fiscal and monetary policy
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    have a significant part to play.”
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    The Bank of Japan
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    has always been on the record
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    that this Japanese system
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    should be scrapped,
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    and US style capitalism
    should be introduced.
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    Whether you agree with that or
    not is an entirely separate question.
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    Now the next question is,
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    how do you do that?
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    The Ministry of Finance
    has been legally in control
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    for most of the post-war era,
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    we have entrenched
    bureaucratic structures,
  • 22:13 - 22:16
    politicians, and all these cartels
    and so on.
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    That was the old system,
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    well history teaches a system
    only changes fundamentally
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    if there is a crisis.
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    The commission proposed
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    that monetary policy should be
    used to promote a historic crisis,
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    sufficiently large to overcome
    the vested interests of
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    the Ministry of Finance, politicians
    and corporate Japan.
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    Every system
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    has groups that benefit from it
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    and hence have no desire
    to change it.
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    There is probably no country
    in the world
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    that has changed its economic,
    social, and political system
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    in a significant way
    without a crisis.
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    It is the crisis
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    that convinces citizens and
    interest groups
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    of the need for change.
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    How can you achieve this?
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    Well you need a crisis,
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    and the best way to create it,
    is to have a bubble,
  • 23:18 - 23:21
    because that is how nobody stops you.
  • 23:23 - 23:29
    How to create a Bubble
  • 23:30 - 23:31
    The Bank of Japan
  • 23:32 - 23:36
    began to significantly increase
    window guidance loan quotas.
  • 23:36 - 23:38
    Average yearly loan growth quotas
  • 23:39 - 23:42
    were close to 15% in the late 1980’s.
  • 23:44 - 23:47
    One city banker would later remark:
  • 23:47 - 23:51
    "during the bubble, we wanted
    a certain amount of loan increases,
  • 23:51 - 23:55
    but the Bank of Japan
    wanted us to use more.
  • 23:57 - 24:00
    Young people in their 20s and 30s
  • 24:00 - 24:02
    on modest salaries
  • 24:03 - 24:05
    were able to buy
  • 24:05 - 24:07
    second and third homes.
  • 24:17 - 24:19
    The credit boom
  • 24:19 - 24:22
    caused not only a boom
    in real estate,
  • 24:22 - 24:24
    but also in the stock market.
  • 24:24 - 24:27
    Between 1985 and 1989,
  • 24:27 - 24:29
    stocks rose 240%
  • 24:29 - 24:32
    and land prices 245%.
  • 24:39 - 24:40
    By the end of the 80’s,
  • 24:41 - 24:45
    the value of the garden surrounding
    the Imperial Palace in central Tokyo
  • 24:46 - 24:50
    was worth as much as
    the entire state of California.
  • 25:06 - 25:11
    Although Japan is only 1/26th
    of the size of the United States,
  • 25:11 - 25:16
    its land was valued at four times
    of that of the United States.
  • 25:18 - 25:23
    The market value of a single
    one of Tokyo’s 23 districts,
  • 25:23 - 25:26
    the Central Chiyoda Ward,
  • 25:26 - 25:29
    exceeded the value
    of the whole of Canada.
  • 25:31 - 25:32
    Economists,
  • 25:32 - 25:35
    who are trained to believe
    in market outcomes,
  • 25:35 - 25:38
    tried to justify
    the high land prices.
  • 25:39 - 25:42
    Some thought land scarcity
    was the reason.
  • 25:43 - 25:45
    Shiny new corporate headquarters
  • 25:45 - 25:48
    rose in Tokyo’s posh
    business districts.
  • 25:49 - 25:52
    The labor market boomed so much
  • 25:52 - 25:56
    that there was a genuine fear
    of a serious labor shortage.
  • 25:57 - 26:01
    Companies started to invite
    final year university students
  • 26:01 - 26:04
    on expensive trips to holiday resorts
  • 26:05 - 26:08
    to entice them to sign up.
  • 26:12 - 26:14
    The politicians loved it,
  • 26:14 - 26:16
    the Ministry of Finance loved it,
  • 26:16 - 26:18
    tax revenues were going up.
  • 26:19 - 26:20
    The companies loved it.
  • 26:20 - 26:23
    Every day was like a festival,
  • 26:23 - 26:25
    we girls were taken out,
  • 26:25 - 26:30
    and everything was always paid for
    by guys and bosses.
  • 26:30 - 26:34
    No-one used public transport
    to get home,
  • 26:34 - 26:38
    we always got a taxi.
  • 26:40 - 26:44
    With asset and stock prices
    rising inexorably,
  • 26:44 - 26:48
    even traditional manufacturers
    could not resist the temptation
  • 26:48 - 26:52
    to try their hand
    at playing the markets.
  • 26:52 - 26:56
    Soon they expanded their
    finance and treasury divisions
  • 26:56 - 26:59
    to handle the speculation themselves.
  • 26:59 - 27:01
    These company hedge funds,
  • 27:01 - 27:03
    known as Zai Tech
  • 27:03 - 27:07
    used borrowed money to engage
    in property and share speculation.
  • 27:08 - 27:11
    The frenzy reached such proportions
  • 27:11 - 27:13
    that many leading manufacturers,
  • 27:13 - 27:15
    such as the carmaker Nissan,
  • 27:16 - 27:19
    made more money through
    speculative investments
  • 27:19 - 27:21
    than through manufacturing cars.
  • 27:24 - 27:27
    Literally thousands
    of articles were written
  • 27:27 - 27:30
    on the new Japanese miracle economy.
  • 27:30 - 27:32
    A common explanation by economists
  • 27:33 - 27:35
    was that high and rising productivity
  • 27:35 - 27:38
    explained the impressive performance
    of Japan’s economy.
  • 27:45 - 27:48
    Books on Japanese
    management techniques
  • 27:48 - 27:50
    became international bestsellers.
  • 27:51 - 27:52
    Western businessmen
  • 27:53 - 27:58
    read 17th-century tracts
    on samurai strategies.
  • 28:03 - 28:05
    In reality,
  • 28:05 - 28:08
    Japan’s stellar performance
    in the 1980s
  • 28:08 - 28:11
    had little to do with
    management techniques.
  • 28:12 - 28:16
    Instead of being used
    to limit and direct credit,
  • 28:16 - 28:20
    window guidance was used
    to create a giant bubble.
  • 28:26 - 28:32
    I conducted research interviewing
    Bank of Japan officers and bankers,
  • 28:32 - 28:34
    both sides, on tape.
  • 28:34 - 28:36
    The result was,
  • 28:36 - 28:39
    the Bank of Japan did continue
    its informal guidance,
  • 28:39 - 28:42
    in fact it was
    the Bank of Japan
  • 28:42 - 28:46
    that forced the banks to
    increase their lending so much.
  • 28:49 - 28:51
    The Bank of Japan knew
  • 28:51 - 28:55
    that the only way for banks
    to fulfill their loan quotas
  • 28:56 - 29:00
    was for them to expand
    non-productive lending.
  • 29:00 - 29:02
    In the words of one Banker:
  • 29:03 - 29:07
    "if there is no demand for credit
    from low-risk borrowers
  • 29:07 - 29:10
    and we want
    to use up the quota,
  • 29:10 - 29:12
    the risk gets worse."
  • 29:13 - 29:16
    Another banker is quoted as
    saying that
  • 29:16 - 29:20
    "a side effect of the window
    guidance rule of loan increases
  • 29:21 - 29:23
    was that banks increased lending
  • 29:23 - 29:26
    even when there was no loan demand."
  • 29:28 - 29:34
    Money Creation and the Bubble
  • 29:34 - 29:36
    Like all bubbles,
  • 29:36 - 29:37
    the Japanese bubble
  • 29:38 - 29:41
    was simply fuelled by the
    rapid creation of new money
  • 29:41 - 29:43
    by the banking system.
  • 29:45 - 29:47
    Between 1986 and 1989,
  • 29:47 - 29:51
    Toshihiko Fukui was the head of
    the Banking Department
  • 29:51 - 29:53
    at the Bank of Japan,
  • 29:54 - 29:57
    this was the department that was
    responsible for
  • 29:57 - 30:00
    the window guidance quotas.
  • 30:00 - 30:03
    When Fukui was asked by a journalist,
  • 30:03 - 30:05
    “borrowing is expanding fast,
  • 30:05 - 30:10
    don’t you have any intention of
    closing the tap on bank loans?”
  • 30:10 - 30:11
    he replied,
  • 30:12 - 30:17
    “because the consistent policy of
    monetary easing continues,
  • 30:18 - 30:22
    quantity control of bank loans
    would imply a self-contradiction.
  • 30:23 - 30:29
    Therefore we do not intend to
    implement quantitative tightening.
  • 30:29 - 30:32
    With structural adjustment
    of the economy
  • 30:32 - 30:35
    going on for quite a long period,
  • 30:35 - 30:38
    the international imbalances
    are being addressed.
  • 30:39 - 30:42
    The monetary policy supports this,
  • 30:42 - 30:47
    thus we have the responsibility to
    continue the monetary easing policy
  • 30:47 - 30:49
    as long as possible.
  • 30:50 - 30:55
    Therefore it is natural
    for bank loans to expand.”
  • 30:56 - 30:59
    Why were the banks lending so much?
  • 30:59 - 31:02
    Because they were forced to do so
  • 31:02 - 31:05
    by the orders of the Bank of Japan.
  • 31:10 - 31:11
    Normally,
  • 31:11 - 31:16
    banks choose clients from among
    a large number of loan applicants,
  • 31:16 - 31:20
    turning down
    a significant percentage.
  • 31:22 - 31:24
    But from 1987 onwards,
  • 31:24 - 31:26
    the tables had turned,
  • 31:26 - 31:28
    it was the bankers
  • 31:28 - 31:32
    who were aggressively pursuing
    potential customers.
  • 31:33 - 31:35
    Anecdotes abound
  • 31:35 - 31:39
    about how banks were soliciting
    loans at bargain interest rates,
  • 31:39 - 31:42
    pursuing clients like street peddlers.
  • 31:42 - 31:47
    The banks were encouraging
    people to borrow money.
  • 31:47 - 31:48
    For example
  • 31:49 - 31:53
    when a newly wed couple
    wanted to buy a house,
  • 31:53 - 31:56
    banks would offer them
  • 31:56 - 32:00
    double the amount they asked for.
  • 32:01 - 32:04
    Bankers made increasingly
    exaggerated assessments
  • 32:05 - 32:06
    of land value,
  • 32:06 - 32:10
    so that the actual ratio
    of land value to loan
  • 32:10 - 32:13
    often jumped to 300% or more.
  • 32:14 - 32:18
    To the public this was
    a strange phenomenon.
  • 32:18 - 32:20
    People soon dubbed it
  • 32:20 - 32:22
    "excess money".
  • 32:23 - 32:25
    Only economists,
  • 32:25 - 32:26
    analysts,
  • 32:26 - 32:29
    and those working in
    the financial markets
  • 32:29 - 32:32
    or for real estate firms
    knew better.
  • 32:32 - 32:35
    They dismissed such
    simplistic analysis.
  • 32:37 - 32:38
    Land prices were going up
  • 32:39 - 32:41
    due to far more complicated reasons
  • 32:41 - 32:43
    than just excess money,
  • 32:43 - 32:44
    they claimed.
  • 32:45 - 32:48
    Ordinary people simply did not
    understand the intricacies
  • 32:49 - 32:52
    of advanced financial technology.
  • 32:54 - 32:59
    International Capital Flows
  • 33:08 - 33:10
    When a country creates
    too much money,
  • 33:11 - 33:13
    some of that money spills out abroad
  • 33:13 - 33:16
    in the form of investments.
  • 33:18 - 33:19
    In the 1980s
  • 33:20 - 33:22
    Japanese capital flows multiplied
  • 33:22 - 33:25
    from a net inflow of
    more than $2 billion
  • 33:25 - 33:27
    in 1980
  • 33:27 - 33:30
    to an outflow of $132 billion
  • 33:30 - 33:32
    in 1986.
  • 33:35 - 33:38
    Assets, including art objects
    and other valuables
  • 33:38 - 33:40
    all over the world
  • 33:40 - 33:42
    became targets for Japanese buyers.
  • 33:44 - 33:47
    There were high-profile purchases
  • 33:47 - 33:50
    such as the Rockefeller Centre,
    Columbia Pictures
  • 33:50 - 33:53
    and Pebble Beach Golf Course.
  • 33:55 - 33:57
    Japanese money
  • 33:57 - 34:01
    bought a staggering 75% of
    all United States treasury bonds
  • 34:01 - 34:04
    auctioned off in 1986.
  • 34:07 - 34:09
    But it is not easy
  • 34:09 - 34:11
    for a country to just print money
  • 34:11 - 34:14
    and then go on a shopping spree
    around the world.
  • 34:15 - 34:17
    Japan was able to do this
  • 34:17 - 34:21
    because the markets
    did not devalue its currency.
  • 34:22 - 34:24
    The value of individual currencies
  • 34:25 - 34:27
    is set by currency dealers,
  • 34:27 - 34:29
    If the traditional indicators
  • 34:30 - 34:32
    that the currency dealers watch
  • 34:32 - 34:36
    do not pick up the excess money
    creation in the country concerned,
  • 34:36 - 34:38
    then creating large amounts of money
  • 34:39 - 34:42
    and trying to exchange it
    for foreign currency,
  • 34:42 - 34:44
    can work.
  • 34:49 - 34:51
    Japan had pulled off the same trick
  • 34:52 - 34:54
    that the United States had used
  • 34:54 - 34:56
    in the 1950s and 1960s,
  • 34:57 - 35:00
    when US banks
    excessively created dollars.
  • 35:02 - 35:05
    Corporate America used this hot money
  • 35:05 - 35:08
    to buy up European corporations.
  • 35:10 - 35:12
    While the United States
  • 35:12 - 35:15
    had the cover of
    the dollar gold standard,
  • 35:15 - 35:19
    Japan’s cover
    was a significant trade surplus.
  • 35:24 - 35:27
    Non-GDP based loan:
  • 35:28 - 35:33
    A loan, which is not used for
    the production of goods or services.
  • 35:33 - 35:35
    An early warning indicator
  • 35:35 - 35:39
    of the buildup of systemic risk
    in the banking system
  • 35:39 - 35:43
    is the ratio of loans for
    non-GDP-based transactions
  • 35:43 - 35:45
    to total loans.
  • 35:47 - 35:50
    This ratio increases significantly
    in most countries
  • 35:51 - 35:55
    that are subsequently struck
    by a banking crisis.
  • 35:59 - 36:01
    It was this same process
  • 36:01 - 36:05
    that fueled the mortgage lending
    and house price booms
  • 36:05 - 36:08
    in the United States and
    the United Kingdom
  • 36:08 - 36:10
    in the 1980s and the 2000s.
  • 36:11 - 36:15
    The same process also created
    the golden twenties:
  • 36:15 - 36:16
    in the 1920s,
  • 36:17 - 36:20
    United States banks
    lent with stocks as collateral.
  • 36:22 - 36:24
    The principle remains the same.
  • 36:24 - 36:28
    As each bank took
    the stock price as a given,
  • 36:28 - 36:30
    it created new money.
  • 36:30 - 36:33
    With more money in the stock market,
  • 36:33 - 36:35
    stock prices had to rise.
  • 36:36 - 36:39
    Each bank thought it was safe
  • 36:39 - 36:44
    accepting a certain percentage of
    the value of the stock as collateral,
  • 36:44 - 36:46
    but the actions of all banks
    together,
  • 36:46 - 36:49
    drove up the overall market.
  • 36:52 - 36:54
    In Japan,
  • 36:54 - 36:56
    total private sector land wealth
  • 36:56 - 36:58
    rose from ¥14.2 trillion in 1969
  • 36:59 - 37:02
    to 2000 trillion yen in 1989.
  • 37:08 - 37:10
    At his first press conference
  • 37:10 - 37:13
    as the 26th governor of
    the Bank of Japan,
  • 37:14 - 37:15
    in 1989,
  • 37:15 - 37:17
    Yasushi Mieno said that,
  • 37:17 - 37:20
    “since the previous policy of
    monetary easing
  • 37:20 - 37:23
    had caused
    the land price rise problem,
  • 37:23 - 37:27
    real estate related lending
    would now be restricted.”
  • 37:28 - 37:30
    He looked around,
    looked at the bubble,
  • 37:30 - 37:34
    asset prices rising, the gap between
    rich and poor getting bigger,
  • 37:34 - 37:36
    lets stop it.
  • 37:36 - 37:39
    His name was mister Mieno,
    and he was a hero in the press,
  • 37:40 - 37:43
    because he fought against
    this silly monetary policy.
  • 37:43 - 37:46
    But he was deputy governor
    during the bubble era,
  • 37:47 - 37:50
    and he was in charge
    of creating the bubble.
  • 37:57 - 38:02
    The Crash
  • 38:17 - 38:18
    All of a sudden
  • 38:18 - 38:21
    land and asset prices stopped rising.
  • 38:22 - 38:24
    In 1990 alone,
  • 38:24 - 38:27
    the stock market dropped by 32%.
  • 38:32 - 38:34
    Then in July 1991,
  • 38:34 - 38:36
    window guidance was abolished.
  • 38:38 - 38:40
    This took
    the window guidance officers
  • 38:41 - 38:44
    at the Bank of Japan
    themselves by surprise.
  • 38:44 - 38:47
    Bankers were left almost helpless.
  • 38:47 - 38:49
    They complained
    that they did not know
  • 38:49 - 38:52
    how to make their
    lending plans anymore.
  • 38:53 - 38:55
    In the past
    when a certain branch said
  • 38:56 - 38:58
    they would like to lend more,
  • 38:58 - 39:03
    they would respond that the window
    guidance quota had been used up
  • 39:03 - 39:06
    now they couldn’t do that anymore.
  • 39:09 - 39:11
    As banks began to realize
  • 39:11 - 39:14
    that the majority of the ¥99 trillion
    in bubble loans
  • 39:15 - 39:17
    were likely to turn sour,
  • 39:17 - 39:19
    they became so fearful
  • 39:19 - 39:22
    that they not only stopped lending
    to speculators,
  • 39:23 - 39:26
    but also restricted loans
    to everyone else.
  • 39:26 - 39:29
    NEWS: Well it’s a bleak Christmas
    ahead for Japan,
  • 39:29 - 39:31
    the stock market on Monday
  • 39:31 - 39:34
    sinking to its lowest close
    in over two years.
  • 39:34 - 39:37
    Last weeks collapse of one of
    Japan’s biggest food traders
  • 39:38 - 39:40
    was the 9th time this year
  • 39:40 - 39:42
    that a listed company went under.
  • 39:44 - 39:46
    More than 5 million Japanese
    lost their jobs
  • 39:47 - 39:50
    and did not find employment
    elsewhere.
  • 39:54 - 39:57
    Suicide became
    the leading cause of death
  • 39:57 - 40:00
    for men between the ages
    of 20 and 44.
  • 40:03 - 40:05
    The papers ran stories
  • 40:05 - 40:07
    of people hanging themselves
  • 40:07 - 40:09
    or going missing
  • 40:10 - 40:12
    on an almost daily basis.
  • 40:21 - 40:23
    Between 1990 and 2003,
  • 40:24 - 40:27
    212,000 companies went bankrupt.
  • 40:29 - 40:31
    In the same period
  • 40:31 - 40:34
    the stock market dropped by 80%.
  • 40:36 - 40:38
    Land prices in the major cities
  • 40:38 - 40:40
    fell by up to 84%.
  • 40:42 - 40:44
    Some economists seemed relieved.
  • 40:44 - 40:46
    The downturn was evidence
  • 40:47 - 40:49
    that Japan’s economic system
  • 40:49 - 40:52
    was not so successful after all.
  • 40:53 - 40:54
    Meanwhile,
  • 40:55 - 40:57
    the Governor of the Bank of Japan,
  • 40:57 - 40:59
    Yasushi Mieno, said that:
  • 40:59 - 41:02
    “thanks to this recession
  • 41:02 - 41:04
    everyone is becoming
    conscious of the need
  • 41:05 - 41:08
    to implement
    economic transformation,”
  • 41:11 - 41:15
    The Failed Bailout
  • 41:16 - 41:17
    The Ministry of Finance,
  • 41:18 - 41:21
    believing that interest rates
    were the main policy tool,
  • 41:21 - 41:25
    put pressure on the Bank of Japan
    to lower interest rates,
  • 41:26 - 41:29
    until the official rate
    reached 0.1%.
  • 41:32 - 41:36
    Most economists predicted
    an economic recovery.
  • 41:41 - 41:44
    But despite frequent assertions
    in the financial press
  • 41:45 - 41:46
    and by central banks
  • 41:47 - 41:50
    that lower interest rates
    will stimulate growth
  • 41:50 - 41:52
    and higher interest rates
    will slow growth,
  • 41:53 - 41:56
    there is no empirical evidence
    for this relationship.
  • 42:03 - 42:06
    NEWS: Japanese and American
    businessmen are meeting here
  • 42:07 - 42:10
    with a plea from Japan’s companies
    for a lower yen.
  • 42:10 - 42:12
    Only 6% of Japanese exporters
  • 42:13 - 42:16
    can make profits with the dollar
    at less than a ¥100.
  • 42:16 - 42:19
    On average they need
    the American currency to rise
  • 42:19 - 42:22
    above ¥117 to break even.
  • 42:25 - 42:28
    The Ministry of Finance
    asked the Bank of Japan
  • 42:28 - 42:30
    to sell large amounts of yen
  • 42:30 - 42:32
    and buy US dollars.
  • 42:32 - 42:36
    So that the exchange rate
    of the yen would fall
  • 42:36 - 42:38
    and exports would pick up.
  • 42:40 - 42:41
    The two of them,
  • 42:42 - 42:45
    the Ministry of Finance (MOF)
    and the Bank of Japan (BOJ),
  • 42:45 - 42:47
    they just don’t get along well.
  • 42:47 - 42:50
    And what has been happening
    again this month
  • 42:50 - 42:54
    is that the Bank of Japan has been
    sterilizing its own intervention,
  • 42:55 - 42:56
    to be precise,
  • 42:56 - 42:59
    the intervention ordered
    by the Ministry of Finance.
  • 42:59 - 43:01
    The Ministry of Finance
    tells the Bank of Japan
  • 43:02 - 43:06
    to go out and buy roughly 20
    billion worth of US treasuries.
  • 43:06 - 43:08
    But, the Bank of Japan is
    sterilizing this,
  • 43:09 - 43:12
    which means it is basically taking
    the money from the economy
  • 43:12 - 43:14
    to fund this purchase.
  • 43:14 - 43:16
    Most researchers agree,
  • 43:16 - 43:19
    sterilized forex intervention
    doesn’t work.
  • 43:19 - 43:21
    The BOJ is again sterilizing,
  • 43:21 - 43:23
    that’s why it doesn’t work,
  • 43:23 - 43:26
    that’s why the yen
    has remained strong.
  • 43:30 - 43:33
    A central bank can withdraw money
    from the economy
  • 43:33 - 43:35
    by selling its assets.
  • 43:36 - 43:39
    Just as it can inject money
    into the economy
  • 43:39 - 43:41
    by buying assets.
  • 43:43 - 43:46
    When central banks
    buy and sell assets,
  • 43:47 - 43:52
    they increase or decrease the amount
    of money circulating in the economy.
  • 43:53 - 43:56
    Officials at the Bank of japan
    ignored this,
  • 43:56 - 43:58
    and instead claimed that,
  • 43:59 - 44:02
    “this structural transformation
    or reform
  • 44:02 - 44:06
    may produce deflationary forces
    in the short run,
  • 44:06 - 44:11
    but will generate a much more
    efficient economy after a while.”
  • 44:18 - 44:20
    Independent observers suggested that
  • 44:20 - 44:25
    domestic demand had to be boosted
    by government spending,
  • 44:25 - 44:28
    and then loan demand would also rise.
  • 44:30 - 44:31
    For a decade,
  • 44:32 - 44:34
    the government followed
    their advice,
  • 44:34 - 44:37
    boosting government debt
    to historic levels.
  • 44:37 - 44:39
    Between 1992 and 2002,
  • 44:40 - 44:44
    10 stimulation packages worth
    ¥146 trillion were issued.
  • 44:48 - 44:49
    NEWS: Mr Richard Werner
  • 44:49 - 44:52
    is chief economist at Jardine
    Fleming Securities in Tokyo,
  • 44:52 - 44:54
    he joins us now
    to share his views on
  • 44:54 - 44:57
    where the Japanese
    economy is heading.
  • 44:58 - 45:00
    The government was spending
    with the right hand,
  • 45:00 - 45:01
    putting money into the economy,
  • 45:02 - 45:04
    but the fundraising was done
    through the bond market,
  • 45:04 - 45:07
    and therefore it took the same money
    out of the economy with the left hand.
  • 45:07 - 45:10
    There was no increase in
    total purchasing power
  • 45:10 - 45:13
    and that’s why the government
    spending couldn’t have an impact.
  • 45:13 - 45:18
    By 2011 Japan’s government debt
    would reach 230% of GDP,
  • 45:18 - 45:20
    the highest in the world.
  • 45:27 - 45:30
    The Ministry of Finance
    was running out of options,
  • 45:32 - 45:36
    observers began to blame
    the ministry for the recession,
  • 45:36 - 45:38
    and started to listen to the voices
  • 45:38 - 45:43
    that argued that the recession was
    due to Japan’s economic system.
  • 45:46 - 45:48
    But how difficult would it have been
  • 45:48 - 45:51
    to solve the problems of bad debt
    in the banking sector,
  • 45:52 - 45:53
    and deflation?
  • 45:54 - 45:58
    It turns out that this would not
    have been so difficult after all.
  • 45:58 - 46:00
    The financial system always looks
    like Catch 22,
  • 46:00 - 46:02
    there’s no loan growth,
    so there’s no economic growth,
  • 46:03 - 46:06
    so there’s no loan growth,
    so there’s no economic growth.
  • 46:06 - 46:10
    Well, there is one thing that can
    break through this circular argument,
  • 46:10 - 46:12
    that’s the central bank.
  • 46:12 - 46:16
    The job of the central bank in
    this situation is to print money.
  • 46:18 - 46:22
    The Power of Central Banks
  • 46:22 - 46:26
    What we need now
    is more radical measures,
  • 46:26 - 46:28
    and there are some painful ones,
  • 46:28 - 46:30
    but there are also painless ones.
  • 46:30 - 46:34
    The central bank could for example
    just buy all bad debts at face value,
  • 46:34 - 46:37
    Japan would have the strongest
    banks in the world.
  • 46:38 - 46:40
    To bail out the banking sector
  • 46:40 - 46:43
    a central bank can buy up
    the bank's bad financial assets
  • 46:44 - 46:45
    with newly created money,
  • 46:46 - 46:48
    giving them face value for assets,
  • 46:48 - 46:50
    which are often worth
    significantly less.
  • 46:53 - 46:56
    This is what the Bank
    of Japan did after the war.
  • 46:59 - 47:02
    Alternatively, money could be
    transferred to the banks
  • 47:03 - 47:06
    by helping them make
    sizeable profits.
  • 47:06 - 47:08
    One way this can be achieved
  • 47:08 - 47:11
    is for the central bank
    to corner a market
  • 47:11 - 47:14
    – in effect creating a mini bubble
    in a certain market
  • 47:14 - 47:16
    in which banks invest heavily,
  • 47:16 - 47:18
    providing large profits for them.
  • 47:20 - 47:23
    This turns out to be
    a relatively common technique
  • 47:23 - 47:25
    by central banks
  • 47:25 - 47:28
    to help their banking systems.
  • 47:32 - 47:34
    Other proposals include,
  • 47:34 - 47:37
    measures to introduce zero risk
    borrowers to banks
  • 47:37 - 47:41
    or introducing accounting changes
    that help their balance sheets.
  • 47:48 - 47:51
    In Japan, the authorities and
    the Bank of Japan argued,
  • 47:52 - 47:55
    as did the Western powers
    almost two decades later,
  • 47:55 - 47:58
    that the taxpayer
    should foot the bill.
  • 48:01 - 48:02
    In March last year,
  • 48:03 - 48:07
    the government injected
    a large amount of money into
  • 48:07 - 48:11
    some 15 major
    Japanese financial institutions.
  • 48:14 - 48:16
    And we were one of them.
  • 48:17 - 48:20
    That helped us write off bad debts,
  • 48:20 - 48:23
    and also to beef up our capital base
  • 48:23 - 48:26
    so that we would be prepared to lend.
  • 48:29 - 48:32
    Tax money has been used
    to recapitalize banks.
  • 48:33 - 48:37
    However, there is no evidence that
    taxpayers have been responsible
  • 48:37 - 48:39
    for the bank’s problems,
  • 48:39 - 48:41
    therefore, such policies
  • 48:41 - 48:43
    have likely created a moral hazard.
  • 48:48 - 48:49
    The money supply
  • 48:49 - 48:52
    is determined by the net increase
    in money creation
  • 48:52 - 48:55
    by banks and the central bank.
  • 48:55 - 48:57
    If moral hazard dictates that
  • 48:57 - 49:00
    the banking sector should
    not be bailed out,
  • 49:00 - 49:05
    deflation and recession can still
    be avoided by the central bank.
  • 49:05 - 49:07
    To do this,
  • 49:07 - 49:10
    the central bank can
    increase the money supply.
  • 49:11 - 49:14
    A central bank can increase
    the amount of money
  • 49:14 - 49:16
    in an economy at any time,
  • 49:17 - 49:18
    without limit,
  • 49:18 - 49:21
    by simply buying assets
    from the private sector
  • 49:22 - 49:24
    and paying with
    newly created credit.
  • 49:25 - 49:27
    The Bank of Japan could for instance
  • 49:27 - 49:29
    have bought real estate
  • 49:29 - 49:31
    and converted it into public parks.
  • 49:31 - 49:35
    And there is an opportunity here to
    solve three problems in one stroke.
  • 49:36 - 49:38
    The economy needs money creation,
  • 49:38 - 49:40
    the banks need to get rid of
    their bad debt
  • 49:41 - 49:44
    and the real estate sector
    needs some transactions.
  • 49:44 - 49:48
    What you can do is just have
    the central bank print money,
  • 49:48 - 49:50
    buy the land from the banks,
  • 49:50 - 49:52
    turn it into parks,
  • 49:52 - 49:54
    and you solve another problem,
  • 49:54 - 49:56
    quality of life in Japan.
  • 49:57 - 50:00
    Even if the Bank of Japan
    would have later sold these parks
  • 50:01 - 50:03
    at a fraction of the cost,
  • 50:03 - 50:05
    it would still have made money,
  • 50:05 - 50:07
    because it costs
    a central bank nothing
  • 50:08 - 50:11
    to create the money
    in the first place.
  • 50:12 - 50:16
    Another option for injecting
    money into the economy
  • 50:16 - 50:18
    is quantitative easing.
  • 50:19 - 50:21
    Despite having all these options
    available,
  • 50:22 - 50:26
    the Bank of Japan at every stage
    refused to implement policies
  • 50:26 - 50:29
    that would have resolved the crises.
  • 50:30 - 50:33
    When I was at the Bank of Japan
    in 1992-1993,
  • 50:33 - 50:35
    as a visiting researcher,
  • 50:35 - 50:39
    I was convinced that this recession
    was going to get really bad.
  • 50:39 - 50:43
    So I would ask any Bank of Japan
    person who would talk to me,
  • 50:43 - 50:45
    why aren’t you printing more money.
  • 50:45 - 50:48
    I met one individual who
    was quite open about this
  • 50:49 - 50:50
    and he said:
  • 50:50 - 50:53
    “Richard, sure we could have
    printed more money,
  • 50:54 - 50:56
    we could have created a recovery,
  • 50:56 - 50:58
    but then nothing would have changed,
  • 50:58 - 51:01
    Japans economic structure
    would not have changed.”
  • 51:01 - 51:04
    Now at that time I still
    wasn’t ready to believe
  • 51:04 - 51:07
    that the Bank of Japan was
    prolonging the recession
  • 51:07 - 51:09
    in order to get structural changes
  • 51:09 - 51:12
    that just seemed a bit too wild.
  • 51:13 - 51:17
    Finance Minister Masajuro Shiokawa
    has turned to the Bank of Japan
  • 51:17 - 51:21
    asking it to help stop deflation,
    or fight deflation at least.
  • 51:21 - 51:24
    The Bank of Japan consistently
    defied calls by the government,
  • 51:25 - 51:27
    finance minister and prime minister
  • 51:27 - 51:30
    to create more money
    to stimulate the economy
  • 51:30 - 51:32
    and end the long recession.
  • 51:33 - 51:35
    At times the Bank of Japan
  • 51:35 - 51:40
    even actively reduced the amount
    of money circulating in the economy,
  • 51:40 - 51:42
    which worsened the recession.
  • 51:48 - 51:52
    The Bank of Japan’s arguments
    always came to the same conclusion,
  • 51:53 - 51:54
    namely, that the blame lay
  • 51:55 - 51:57
    with Japan’s economic structure.
  • 52:00 - 52:02
    Central bank staff even argued
  • 52:02 - 52:04
    that significant monetary easing
  • 52:04 - 52:06
    “could cause harm”
  • 52:06 - 52:11
    by inducing “a further delay in the
    progress of structural adjustment”.
  • 52:18 - 52:20
    The early postwar Japanese leaders
  • 52:20 - 52:23
    knew that they were
    running a war economy,
  • 52:23 - 52:26
    but they chose not to talk
    for political reasons.
  • 52:28 - 52:30
    The cold war propaganda message
  • 52:30 - 52:32
    was that post-war Japan
  • 52:32 - 52:37
    had adopted a US style
    political and economic system.
  • 52:40 - 52:41
    Unwilling to tell the truth,
  • 52:41 - 52:43
    the early post-war leaders,
  • 52:44 - 52:45
    took their intimate knowledge
  • 52:46 - 52:48
    about the origins of Japan’s
    miracle economy
  • 52:48 - 52:51
    with them to their grave.
  • 52:52 - 52:55
    A generation of
    bureaucrats and politicians
  • 52:55 - 52:57
    reigned in the 1980s and 1990s,
  • 52:58 - 52:59
    who did not understand
  • 52:59 - 53:01
    the true character and purpose
  • 53:01 - 53:03
    of their own country’s economy.
  • 53:05 - 53:08
    A whole generation
    of Japan’s economists
  • 53:08 - 53:10
    had been sent to the United States
  • 53:10 - 53:14
    to receive Ph.Ds and MBAs
    in US style economics.
  • 53:19 - 53:21
    Since neoclassical economics assumes
  • 53:22 - 53:25
    that there is only one type
    of economic system,
  • 53:25 - 53:27
    namely, unmitigated free markets,
  • 53:27 - 53:30
    where shareholders and
    central bankers rule supreme,
  • 53:31 - 53:34
    many Japanese economists
    quickly came to regurgitate
  • 53:34 - 53:38
    the arguments of US economists.
  • 53:44 - 53:50
    Dismantling The Ministry Of Finance
  • 53:50 - 53:54
    NEWS: The US and Japan closed two
    days of insurance talks on Tuesday.
  • 53:55 - 53:57
    Primary sector deregulation
  • 53:57 - 54:00
    is needed to overcome
    the entrenched interests
  • 54:00 - 54:05
    of large insurance companies,
    life and non-life,
  • 54:05 - 54:09
    and the Ministry of Finance
    bureaucracy.
  • 54:12 - 54:14
    They need to reach an agreement
    before December the 15th,
  • 54:15 - 54:18
    after that date the US has
    threatened to impose trade sanctions.
  • 54:18 - 54:23
    A key move analysts are expecting
    is the securitization of real estate.
  • 54:23 - 54:25
    For more we are talking to
    Richard Werner.
  • 54:25 - 54:28
    To have meaningful securitization,
    we need deregulation,
  • 54:29 - 54:31
    and that’s already the
    answer to your question,
  • 54:32 - 54:35
    to get deregulation you have to
    reduce the power
  • 54:35 - 54:37
    of the Ministry of Finance,
  • 54:37 - 54:40
    and obviously the ministry
    was resisting that.
  • 54:41 - 54:42
    In the 1980s,
  • 54:42 - 54:45
    persons who could introduce
    themselves with a business card
  • 54:45 - 54:48
    from the renowned finance ministry,
  • 54:48 - 54:52
    elicited deep and hushed
    exclamations of awe and respect.
  • 54:54 - 54:57
    But by the mid 1990's
    attitudes had changed,
  • 54:57 - 54:59
    there now seemed little doubt
  • 54:59 - 55:01
    to most observers,
  • 55:01 - 55:04
    that the Ministry of Finance
    had caused the recession.
  • 55:07 - 55:11
    Frequent demonstrations were held
    outside the ministry’s doors,
  • 55:11 - 55:14
    by citizens disgusted by
    the bureaucrat’s actions.
  • 55:17 - 55:19
    In early 1998
  • 55:19 - 55:22
    public prosecutors
    for the first time raided
  • 55:23 - 55:26
    the most powerful
    of Japan’s ministries.
  • 55:26 - 55:28
    Both banks and their regulators
  • 55:28 - 55:31
    were heavily criticized
    for their actions.
  • 55:31 - 55:35
    Scandals highlighted some
    of the informal links
  • 55:35 - 55:39
    that existed between Ministry of
    Finance officials and bankers.
  • 55:40 - 55:42
    Many bank staff,
  • 55:42 - 55:44
    and even some ministry officials,
  • 55:44 - 55:46
    were arrested and imprisoned,
  • 55:46 - 55:48
    and several committed suicide.
  • 55:54 - 55:57
    As central banker
    Masaaki Shirakawa had explained:
  • 55:57 - 56:02
    “it is not easy to change
    the institutional framework
  • 56:02 - 56:05
    and promote structural reform
  • 56:05 - 56:08
    since it necessarily involves
    the vested interests
  • 56:09 - 56:13
    of all the related
    individual economic agents.”
  • 56:15 - 56:19
    While Yutaka Yamaguchi, a deputy
    governor of the Bank of Japan,
  • 56:19 - 56:21
    had said that,
  • 56:21 - 56:24
    "the Bank of Japan
    had faced the big dilemma
  • 56:25 - 56:29
    that monetary easing would produce
    the mitigation of immediate risks,
  • 56:30 - 56:32
    which in turn would result
  • 56:32 - 56:36
    in a delaying of adopting
    ultimate solutions."
  • 56:49 - 56:51
    From the mid 1990’s onwards
  • 56:51 - 56:55
    the Government began to dismantle
    much of the power structure
  • 56:55 - 56:57
    of the Ministry of Finance.
  • 56:58 - 57:00
    The Bank of Japan on the other hand,
  • 57:00 - 57:03
    saw its influence
    grow significantly.
  • 57:03 - 57:05
    NEWS: You have written
    just recently,
  • 57:06 - 57:08
    “there is no doubt in your mind,
  • 57:08 - 57:11
    the Bank of Japan will be cut loose
    from the Ministry of Finance
  • 57:11 - 57:13
    and become independent,
  • 57:13 - 57:16
    putting it on a footing
    with other central banks.”
  • 57:16 - 57:18
    Why are you so sure?
  • 57:18 - 57:20
    The Ministry of Finance which
    had been controlling
  • 57:21 - 57:23
    legally at least the Bank of Japan,
  • 57:23 - 57:25
    has lost all credibility.
  • 57:25 - 57:27
    The Ministry of Finance
    is being blamed
  • 57:28 - 57:30
    for the creation of the bubble,
  • 57:30 - 57:32
    for the long recession and
  • 57:32 - 57:36
    for many other problems,
    which we’ve had recently in Japan.
  • 57:36 - 57:38
    Whereas the Bank of Japan
  • 57:38 - 57:41
    has been out of the spotlight
    of public criticism
  • 57:41 - 57:44
    and it’s using that now to say,
  • 57:44 - 57:46
    well, the MOF has been bad
  • 57:46 - 57:48
    we need independence now.
  • 57:48 - 57:50
    Richard, thanks very much.
  • 57:50 - 57:52
    I have been speaking to
    Richard Werner
  • 57:52 - 57:55
    chief economist at
    Jardine Fleming Securities in Tokyo.
  • 57:58 - 58:00
    Soon after his retirement
  • 58:00 - 58:02
    from the position of governor
    of the Bank of Japan
  • 58:02 - 58:04
    in 1994,
  • 58:04 - 58:07
    Mieno embarked on a campaign
    giving speeches
  • 58:07 - 58:10
    to various associations
    and interest groups;
  • 58:12 - 58:15
    He lobbied for a change
    in the Bank of Japan law.
  • 58:15 - 58:18
    His line of argument
    was to subtly suggest
  • 58:18 - 58:22
    that the Ministry of Finance
    had pushed the Bank of Japan
  • 58:22 - 58:24
    into the wrong policies.
  • 58:26 - 58:28
    To avoid such problems in the future,
  • 58:29 - 58:33
    the Bank of Japan needed to be
    given full legal independence.
  • 58:36 - 58:38
    According to Mieno,
  • 58:38 - 58:40
    making central banks independent
  • 58:40 - 58:45
    reflected the human wisdom
    that had been nurtured by history.
  • 58:47 - 58:50
    In 1998 monetary policy
    was put into the hands
  • 58:51 - 58:53
    of the newly independent
    Bank of Japan.
  • 58:56 - 58:59
    So you’re saying that
    politicians as well as economists
  • 58:59 - 59:02
    should be putting more pressure
    on the Bank of Japan
  • 59:02 - 59:04
    to create more money.
  • 59:04 - 59:07
    A lot of critics are going
    to say that that
  • 59:07 - 59:10
    is intervening in the
    central banks independence.
  • 59:10 - 59:12
    What do you make of that?
  • 59:12 - 59:14
    That’s exactly right,
  • 59:14 - 59:16
    that is intervening in the
    central banks independence,
  • 59:17 - 59:18
    and that’s exactly what we need.
  • 59:22 - 59:27
    The Transformation Of
    The Political System
  • 59:28 - 59:32
    The numerous scandals that followed
    the bursting of the bubble
  • 59:32 - 59:36
    also brought down the 1955 system
    of one-party rule
  • 59:36 - 59:38
    by the Liberal Democratic Party.
  • 59:40 - 59:42
    In the old system,
  • 59:43 - 59:46
    politicians did not compete
    by proposing different policies.
  • 59:47 - 59:49
    Policy was made by the bureaucrats,
  • 59:50 - 59:54
    and politicians merely focused on
    appeasing local constituencies
  • 59:54 - 59:56
    with public works projects.
  • 59:59 - 60:01
    In October 1997,
  • 60:01 - 60:04
    for the first time
    in post-war history,
  • 60:04 - 60:07
    all policy initiatives
    to stimulate the economy
  • 60:07 - 60:10
    originated from politicians,
    not bureaucrats.
  • 60:15 - 60:17
    Then in early 2001
  • 60:18 - 60:21
    a new type of politician
    was swept to power.
  • 60:22 - 60:25
    NEWS: Japanese Government bonds
    staged their biggest rally this month
  • 60:25 - 60:28
    as Junichiro Koizumi emerged
    as the hot favorite
  • 60:29 - 60:31
    to become the country’s
    next prime minister.
  • 60:31 - 60:34
    Junichiro Koizumi
    became prime minister.
  • 60:35 - 60:38
    In terms of his popularity
    and his policies
  • 60:38 - 60:41
    he is often compared to
    Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan.
  • 60:42 - 60:44
    His message was simple,
  • 60:44 - 60:47
    no recovery
    without structural reform.
  • 60:54 - 60:57
    At the Geneva summit in
    July 2001 he said:
  • 60:57 - 61:01
    “Some say recovery comes first,
    without reforms.
  • 61:01 - 61:03
    But if the economy recovers,
  • 61:04 - 61:06
    the will to reform will disappear.
  • 61:08 - 61:10
    Therefore, after the elections
  • 61:10 - 61:12
    I will continue with the plan
  • 61:13 - 61:16
    of no growth without
    structural reform.”
  • 61:19 - 61:20
    During 2001
  • 61:20 - 61:24
    the message of no economic
    growth without structural reform
  • 61:24 - 61:27
    had been broadcast
    on an almost daily basis
  • 61:27 - 61:29
    on the nations TV screens.
  • 61:30 - 61:33
    NEWS: The countries at the G7 summit
  • 61:33 - 61:36
    are putting pressure on Japan
    to implement structural reform.
  • 61:37 - 61:39
    In Korea there were riots,
  • 61:39 - 61:43
    but then the government decided
    to break up large conglomerates,
  • 61:43 - 61:45
    now their economy is recovering.
  • 61:46 - 61:48
    Now is the time for Japan
  • 61:48 - 61:50
    to implement structural reform.
  • 61:55 - 61:58
    Now everyone believes
    we need structural changes,
  • 61:58 - 62:01
    we need to scrap
    Japanese style capitalism
  • 62:01 - 62:03
    to get a recovery,
    why?
  • 62:03 - 62:05
    It seems we tried all the policies,
  • 62:06 - 62:07
    nothing worked,
  • 62:07 - 62:11
    so the Japanese style
    economic system must be to blame,
  • 62:11 - 62:13
    so we better get rid of it.
  • 62:13 - 62:18
    The Transformation
    Of The Economy
  • 62:18 - 62:20
    Japan was shifting
    its economic system
  • 62:21 - 62:23
    to a US style market economy,
  • 62:23 - 62:25
    and that also meant
  • 62:25 - 62:27
    that the center of the economy
  • 62:27 - 62:30
    was being moved from
    banks to stock markets.
  • 62:32 - 62:35
    To entice depositors to pull
    their money out of banks
  • 62:36 - 62:38
    and into the risky stock market,
  • 62:38 - 62:42
    reformers withdrew the guarantee
    on all bank deposits,
  • 62:42 - 62:45
    while creating tax incentives
    for stock Investments.
  • 62:48 - 62:51
    As US style shareholder capitalism
    spread
  • 62:51 - 62:53
    unemployment rose significantly,
  • 62:54 - 62:56
    income and wealth disparities rose
  • 62:57 - 63:00
    as did suicides and
    incidents of violent crime.
  • 63:03 - 63:05
    Then, in 2002
  • 63:05 - 63:10
    the Bank of Japan strengthened its
    efforts to worsen bank balance sheets
  • 63:10 - 63:13
    and force banks
    to foreclose on their borrowers.
  • 63:13 - 63:15
    Until then, Hakuo Yanagisawa,
  • 63:15 - 63:17
    minister for financial services,
  • 63:17 - 63:21
    had resisted
    the Bank of Japan inspired proposal
  • 63:21 - 63:24
    to inject tax money into banks,
  • 63:24 - 63:26
    effectively nationalizing them,
  • 63:26 - 63:28
    taking over their management
  • 63:29 - 63:33
    and using this power
    to call in loans from companies,
  • 63:33 - 63:36
    thus triggering many bankruptcies
    of large firms.
  • 63:40 - 63:44
    Mr. Yanagisawa was duly sacked
    by the prime minister
  • 63:45 - 63:47
    and replaced with Heizo Takenaka,
  • 63:47 - 63:51
    Takenaka was a supporter of
    the Bank of Japan’s plan
  • 63:51 - 63:54
    to increase
    foreclosures of borrowers.
  • 63:54 - 63:57
    Minister Takenaka was trying
    to implement a policy
  • 63:57 - 64:01
    to dramatically weaken
    the balance sheets of the banks,
  • 64:01 - 64:05
    in order to allow him
    to nationalize them.
  • 64:07 - 64:09
    Takenaka appointed a task force
  • 64:09 - 64:11
    to oversee the banking policies,
  • 64:12 - 64:15
    which included
    two former Bank of Japan staff.
  • 64:15 - 64:17
    One of them, Takeshi Kimura,
  • 64:17 - 64:21
    immediately demanded that
    accounting changes be implemented
  • 64:21 - 64:24
    which would worsen
    bank balance sheets
  • 64:24 - 64:27
    and render nationalization
    unavoidable.
  • 64:28 - 64:31
    Takuro Morinaga,
    a well-known economist in Tokyo,
  • 64:31 - 64:36
    argued forcefully that the Bank of
    Japan inspired proposal by Takenaka
  • 64:36 - 64:39
    would not have
    many indigenous beneficiaries,
  • 64:39 - 64:41
    but instead
  • 64:41 - 64:44
    would mainly benefit
    US vulture funds
  • 64:44 - 64:47
    specializing in the purchase
    of distressed assets.
  • 64:50 - 64:53
    These vulture funds
    had faced the difficulty
  • 64:53 - 64:55
    that despite over
    200,000 bankruptcies,
  • 64:56 - 65:00
    few firms sufficiently large for
    the vulture funds to be interested
  • 65:00 - 65:02
    were bankrupted.
  • 65:08 - 65:13
    When Kimura’s and Fukui’s support
    for the bankruptcy plan was voiced,
  • 65:13 - 65:16
    the former operated
    a private company
  • 65:16 - 65:20
    that advised on the securitization
    of distressed assets
  • 65:20 - 65:22
    and the latter was an adviser
  • 65:22 - 65:25
    of the Wall Street investment firm
    Goldman Sachs
  • 65:25 - 65:29
    one of the largest operators
    of vulture funds in the world.
  • 65:30 - 65:31
    Mister Fukui,
  • 65:31 - 65:35
    also his mentor Mister Mieno,
    and his mentor Mister Maekawa,
  • 65:35 - 65:37
    and you’ve guessed it,
  • 65:37 - 65:40
    these are some of the Princes of
    the Yen that the book is all about.
  • 65:41 - 65:44
    They have said on the record
    in the 80s and the 90s,
  • 65:44 - 65:46
    what is the goal of monetary policy?
  • 65:46 - 65:48
    It is to change the
    economic structure.
  • 65:48 - 65:51
    Now, how do you do that?
    Well, you need a crisis.
  • 65:51 - 65:53
    And that’s really
    what they have done,
  • 65:53 - 65:56
    Richard, we’re out of time
    I have to cut you off.
  • 65:56 - 65:58
    WHISTLEBLOWER: I work for one of
    the big city banks.
  • 65:59 - 66:03
    I used to be in charge of liasing
    with the bank of Japan.
  • 66:03 - 66:05
    During the bubble era
  • 66:05 - 66:09
    we were told every three months
    by the Bank of Japan,
  • 66:09 - 66:12
    how much loans had to be
    increased by.
  • 66:12 - 66:17
    The Bank of Japan window guidance
    allocation was an order.
  • 66:18 - 66:21
    The cause of the bubble was
    the window guidance,
  • 66:21 - 66:25
    and it was done on the order
    of the Bank of Japan.
  • 66:26 - 66:28
    The department responsible
  • 66:28 - 66:31
    for the window guidance quotas
    at the Bank of Japan,
  • 66:31 - 66:33
    was called the Banking Department.
  • 66:33 - 66:35
    And who was in charge of this?
  • 66:35 - 66:37
    The man at the head
    of this Banking Department
  • 66:38 - 66:40
    during the bubble from 86-89
  • 66:40 - 66:42
    was Toshihiko Fukui.
  • 66:42 - 66:44
    Mister Fukui, the current governor
    of the Bank of Japan,
  • 66:45 - 66:48
    he’s the man who created the bubble.
  • 66:49 - 66:52
    When Fukui had become
    governor of the Bank of Japan,
  • 66:52 - 66:54
    he would say:
  • 66:54 - 66:57
    “while destroying the
    high-growth model,
  • 66:57 - 67:00
    I am building a model
    that suits the new era.”
  • 67:04 - 67:07
    They have succeeded on all counts.
  • 67:07 - 67:10
    If you look at the list
    of their goals.
  • 67:10 - 67:13
    They’ve reached all those goals,
  • 67:13 - 67:16
    destroy the Ministry of Finance,
    break it up,
  • 67:16 - 67:19
    get an independent
    supervisory agency,
  • 67:20 - 67:23
    reach independence for
    the Bank of Japan itself
  • 67:23 - 67:26
    by changing the Bank of Japan law
  • 67:26 - 67:30
    and engineer deep structural changes
    in the economy
  • 67:30 - 67:34
    by shifting from
    manufacturing to services,
  • 67:34 - 67:36
    opening up, deregulating,
  • 67:36 - 67:38
    liberalizing, privatizing,
  • 67:38 - 67:41
    the whole lot.
  • 67:41 - 67:43
    In the 1920s,
  • 67:43 - 67:47
    Japan’s economy in many ways
    resembled today’s U.S economy
  • 67:47 - 67:50
    – with fierce competition,
    aggressive hiring and firing,
  • 67:50 - 67:52
    takeover battles
    between large corporations,
  • 67:53 - 67:54
    few bureaucratic controls,
  • 67:55 - 67:57
    strong shareholders that
    demanded high dividends,
  • 67:57 - 68:00
    and corporate funding from
    the markets, not banks.
  • 68:01 - 68:03
    Yet throughout the postwar era,
  • 68:03 - 68:06
    Japan’s economy
    had been the opposite:
  • 68:07 - 68:10
    highly regulated,
    with cartels limiting competition,
  • 68:10 - 68:13
    bank financing and cross shareholdings
  • 68:13 - 68:16
    reducing shareholder power,
  • 68:16 - 68:19
    no takeovers,
    and a frozen labor market
  • 68:20 - 68:23
    with lifetime employment
    and seniority pay.
  • 68:26 - 68:31
    It was claimed that to end the
    recession and improve performance,
  • 68:31 - 68:33
    Japan must shift from
    welfare capitalism
  • 68:34 - 68:36
    back to shareholder capitalism.
  • 68:36 - 68:38
    Yet it remains unclear
  • 68:38 - 68:41
    why a country that had run
    a consistent and significant
  • 68:41 - 68:43
    balance of trade surplus
  • 68:43 - 68:47
    would need to change
    its economic system
  • 68:47 - 68:50
    to become more competitive.
  • 68:51 - 68:57
    The Southeast Asian Crisis
  • 69:04 - 69:08
    Japan was not the only
    high-performance economy in Asia
  • 69:08 - 69:10
    that in the 1990s
  • 69:10 - 69:15
    found itself in the deepest
    recession since the great depression.
  • 69:20 - 69:24
    In 1997, the currencies of the
    Southeast Asian Tiger Economies
  • 69:24 - 69:29
    could not maintain a fixed
    exchange rate with the US dollar.
  • 69:29 - 69:34
    They collapsed by between
    60 and 80% within a year.
  • 69:38 - 69:42
    The causes for this crash
    went as far back as 1993.
  • 69:43 - 69:44
    In that year,
  • 69:44 - 69:49
    the Asian Tiger Economies,
    South Korea, Thailand and Indonesia
  • 69:49 - 69:53
    implemented a policy of aggressive
    deregulation of the capital account
  • 69:53 - 69:57
    and the establishment of
    international banking facilities
  • 69:57 - 70:00
    which enabled the corporate
    and banking sectors
  • 70:00 - 70:03
    to borrow liberally from abroad
  • 70:03 - 70:06
    –the first time in the post-war era
  • 70:06 - 70:08
    that borrowers could do so.
  • 70:15 - 70:19
    In reality, there was no need
    for the Asian Tiger Economies
  • 70:19 - 70:21
    to borrow money from abroad.
  • 70:22 - 70:24
    All the money necessary
    for domestic investment
  • 70:25 - 70:27
    could be created at home.
  • 70:28 - 70:31
    Indeed, the pressure
    to liberalize capital flows
  • 70:31 - 70:33
    came from outside.
  • 70:36 - 70:38
    Since the early 1990s,
  • 70:38 - 70:42
    the IMF, the World Trade
    Organization, and the US Treasury
  • 70:42 - 70:44
    had been lobbying these countries,
  • 70:44 - 70:48
    to allow domestic firms
    to borrow from abroad.
  • 70:49 - 70:52
    They argued that
    neoclassical economics had proven
  • 70:53 - 70:56
    that free markets and
    free capital movement
  • 70:56 - 70:58
    increased economic growth.
  • 71:01 - 71:04
    Once the capital accounts
    had been deregulated,
  • 71:05 - 71:08
    the central banks set about
    creating irresistible incentives
  • 71:08 - 71:10
    for domestic firms
    to borrow from abroad.
  • 71:11 - 71:14
    By making it more expensive to borrow
  • 71:14 - 71:16
    in their own domestic currencies
  • 71:16 - 71:19
    than it was to borrow in US dollars.
  • 71:20 - 71:24
    The domestic local interest rates
  • 71:24 - 71:28
    were higher than
    the US dollar interest rate,
  • 71:28 - 71:32
    and the exchange rate
    was virtually fixed.
  • 71:33 - 71:36
    It was the government
    and the central bank
  • 71:36 - 71:39
    that said we will
    maintain the exchange rate.
  • 71:39 - 71:42
    That’s right, central banks
    of Thailand
  • 71:42 - 71:44
    and other East-Asian countries
  • 71:44 - 71:47
    resisted exchange rate adjustment
  • 71:47 - 71:50
    and they tried to send a signal
  • 71:50 - 71:54
    that they would protect
    the exchange rate.
  • 71:58 - 72:01
    The central banks emphasized
    in their public statements
  • 72:01 - 72:06
    that they would maintain fixed
    exchange rates with the US dollar.
  • 72:07 - 72:10
    So that borrowers
    did not have to worry about
  • 72:10 - 72:13
    paying back more
    in their domestic currencies
  • 72:13 - 72:16
    than they had originally borrowed.
  • 72:17 - 72:19
    When I was in Thailand.
  • 72:19 - 72:22
    I went straight to the
    Bank of Thailand and asked them:
  • 72:23 - 72:26
    “were there any informal
    credit guidance schemes?”
  • 72:26 - 72:29
    And they were surprised
    that I asked this question.
  • 72:29 - 72:31
    Because of my study in Japan,
  • 72:31 - 72:34
    I thought perhaps
    there was something similar.
  • 72:35 - 72:36
    And they told me,
  • 72:37 - 72:38
    it was a young staff
  • 72:38 - 72:41
    who perhaps wasn’t aware
    of the politics involved,
  • 72:41 - 72:44
    he said: “yes, yes, we have
    this credit planning scheme.”
  • 72:45 - 72:48
    Banks were ordered
    to increase lending.
  • 72:48 - 72:51
    But they were faced
    with less loan demand
  • 72:51 - 72:54
    from the productive sectors
    of the economy,
  • 72:54 - 72:57
    because these firms had
    been given incentives
  • 72:58 - 73:00
    to borrow from abroad instead.
  • 73:00 - 73:03
    They therefore had to resort
  • 73:03 - 73:07
    to increasing their lending
    to higher risk borrowers.
  • 73:10 - 73:12
    Imports began to shrink,
  • 73:12 - 73:15
    because the central banks had agreed
  • 73:15 - 73:18
    to peg their currencies
    to the US dollar,
  • 73:18 - 73:21
    the economies became
    less competitive,
  • 73:21 - 73:24
    but their current account balance
    was maintained
  • 73:25 - 73:27
    due to the foreign issued loans,
  • 73:28 - 73:32
    which count as exports in the
    balance of payments statistics.
  • 73:37 - 73:39
    When speculators began to sell
  • 73:39 - 73:42
    the Thai baht, the Korean won,
    and the Indonesian rupee,
  • 73:42 - 73:45
    the respective central banks
  • 73:45 - 73:48
    responded with futile attempts
    to maintain the peg
  • 73:49 - 73:52
    until they had squandered
    virtually all
  • 73:52 - 73:54
    of their foreign exchange reserves.
  • 73:55 - 73:58
    This gave foreign lenders
    ample opportunity
  • 73:58 - 74:02
    to withdraw their money at
    the overvalued exchange rates.
  • 74:04 - 74:06
    The central banks knew
  • 74:06 - 74:10
    that if the countries ran out
    of foreign exchange reserves,
  • 74:11 - 74:14
    they would have to call in
    the IMF to avoid default.
  • 74:14 - 74:16
    And once the IMF came in,
  • 74:16 - 74:18
    the central banks knew
  • 74:18 - 74:21
    what this Washington-based
    institution would demand
  • 74:21 - 74:24
    –for its demands in such cases
    have been the same
  • 74:25 - 74:27
    for the previous three decades.
  • 74:27 - 74:31
    The central banks
    would be made independent.
  • 74:33 - 74:35
    On the 16th of July
  • 74:35 - 74:38
    the Thai finance minister
    took a plane to Tokyo
  • 74:39 - 74:41
    to ask Japan for a bailout.
  • 74:46 - 74:51
    At the time Japan had US$213
    billion in foreign exchange reserves
  • 74:51 - 74:54
    –more than the total resources
    of the IMF.
  • 74:56 - 74:58
    They were willing to help.
  • 74:58 - 75:02
    But Washington stopped
    Japan’s initiative,
  • 75:02 - 75:05
    any solution to the
    emerging Asian crisis
  • 75:05 - 75:09
    had to come from Washington
    via the IMF.
  • 75:13 - 75:16
    NEWS: After 2 months of
    speculative attacks,
  • 75:16 - 75:19
    the Thai government floated the baht.
  • 75:25 - 75:28
    The IMF to the rescue
  • 75:28 - 75:30
    The IMF to date
  • 75:30 - 75:32
    has promised almost $120 billion
  • 75:33 - 75:35
    to the embattled economies of
  • 75:35 - 75:37
    Thailand, Indonesia and South Korea.
  • 75:37 - 75:41
    Immediately after arrival
    in the crisis stricken countries,
  • 75:41 - 75:45
    the IMF teams set up offices
    inside the central banks,
  • 75:45 - 75:50
    from where they dictated
    what amounted to terms of surrender.
  • 75:53 - 75:56
    The IMF demanded
    a string of policies,
  • 75:56 - 76:00
    including curbs on central bank
    and bank credit creation,
  • 76:01 - 76:03
    major legal changes
  • 76:03 - 76:05
    and sharp rises in interest rates.
  • 76:08 - 76:10
    As interest rates rose,
  • 76:11 - 76:14
    high-risk borrowers began
    to default on their loans.
  • 76:17 - 76:20
    Burdened with large amounts
    of bad debts,
  • 76:20 - 76:23
    the banking systems of
    Thailand, Korea, and Indonesia
  • 76:23 - 76:25
    were virtually bankrupt.
  • 76:26 - 76:28
    Even otherwise healthy firms
  • 76:29 - 76:32
    started to suffer from
    the widening credit crunch.
  • 76:32 - 76:34
    Corporate bankruptcies soared.
  • 76:34 - 76:39
    Unemployment rose to the
    highest levels since the 1930s.
  • 76:44 - 76:48
    The role of the fund in coming
    to the rescue of ailing nations
  • 76:48 - 76:50
    has been fiercely debated,
  • 76:50 - 76:52
    some have even accused the IMF
  • 76:52 - 76:54
    of making Asia’s
    economic crisis worse.
  • 76:54 - 76:57
    Even if they have to
    subvert our economy
  • 76:57 - 77:00
    they will do so just to prove
    that they are right,
  • 77:00 - 77:03
    the IMF has not been very helpful.
  • 77:03 - 77:05
    The IMF knew well
  • 77:05 - 77:08
    what the consequences
    of its policies would be.
  • 77:08 - 77:10
    In the Korean case,
  • 77:10 - 77:14
    they even had detailed
    but undisclosed studies prepared
  • 77:14 - 77:16
    that had calculated
  • 77:16 - 77:19
    just how many Korean companies
    would go bankrupt
  • 77:19 - 77:23
    if interest rates were to rise
    by five percentage points.
  • 77:24 - 77:27
    The IMF’s first agreement with Korea
  • 77:27 - 77:32
    demanded a rise of exactly five
    percentage points in interest rates.
  • 77:35 - 77:38
    The IMF policies
    are clearly not aimed
  • 77:38 - 77:41
    at creating economic recoveries
    in the Asian countries,
  • 77:41 - 77:44
    they pursue
    quite a different agenda,
  • 77:44 - 77:48
    and that is to change the economic,
    political and social systems
  • 77:48 - 77:49
    in those countries.
  • 77:50 - 77:53
    In fact, the IMF deals prevent
    the countries concerned,
  • 77:53 - 77:55
    like Korea, Thailand, to reflate.
  • 77:56 - 77:59
    Hmmm, interesting, you are saying
    it’s making the crises worse
  • 77:59 - 78:02
    and you’re suggesting that
    the IMF has a hidden agenda.
  • 78:02 - 78:04
    It’s not very hidden this agenda,
  • 78:04 - 78:06
    because the IMF clearly demands
  • 78:06 - 78:09
    that the Asian countries concerned
    have to change the laws
  • 78:09 - 78:13
    so that foreign interests can buy
    anything from banks to land.
  • 78:13 - 78:17
    And in fact, the banking systems
    can only be recapitalized,
  • 78:17 - 78:19
    according to the IMF deals,
  • 78:19 - 78:22
    by using foreign money.
  • 78:22 - 78:24
    Which is not necessary at all,
  • 78:24 - 78:27
    because as long as these countries
    have central banks,
  • 78:28 - 78:31
    they could just print money and
    recapitalize the banking systems,
  • 78:32 - 78:34
    you don’t need
    foreign money for that.
  • 78:34 - 78:39
    So the agenda is clearly to crack
    open Asia for foreign interests.
  • 78:40 - 78:45
    The IMF demanded that troubled
    banks would not be bailed out,
  • 78:45 - 78:49
    but instead closed down and sold
    off cheaply as distressed assets,
  • 78:50 - 78:52
    often to large
    US investment banks.
  • 78:53 - 78:56
    NEWS: One positive
    coming out of Thailand
  • 78:56 - 78:59
    is that they will be
    auctioning off some major assets
  • 78:59 - 79:01
    from 56 finance companies,
  • 79:02 - 79:04
    in your view should eehm,
  • 79:05 - 79:08
    some of the owners
    of the 56 finance companies
  • 79:08 - 79:10
    be allowed to buy back their assets?
  • 79:12 - 79:13
    In most cases,
  • 79:13 - 79:16
    the IMF dictated letters of intent
  • 79:16 - 79:18
    explicitly stated that the banks
  • 79:18 - 79:21
    had to be sold to foreign investors.
  • 79:24 - 79:26
    And let me emphasize
    in that respect,
  • 79:27 - 79:30
    these reform programs are the key,
    the absolute key
  • 79:30 - 79:32
    to restoring financial stability.
  • 79:32 - 79:34
    NEWS: For the first time ever,
  • 79:35 - 79:37
    South Korea closed five banks
  • 79:37 - 79:40
    in a major step towards meeting
    its IMF mandate.
  • 79:41 - 79:44
    The number of commercial banks
    has declined,
  • 79:44 - 79:47
    has been reduced
    as a result of closures,
  • 79:47 - 79:50
    mergers and acquisitions,
  • 79:50 - 79:53
    and foreign strategic investors
    are now in,
  • 79:53 - 79:56
    which is a remarkable change.
  • 80:03 - 80:06
    In Asia,
    government organized bailouts
  • 80:06 - 80:09
    to keep ailing
    financial institutions alive
  • 80:09 - 80:11
    were not allowed.
  • 80:11 - 80:13
    But when a similar crisis
  • 80:14 - 80:16
    struck back home
    in America a year later,
  • 80:17 - 80:20
    the very same institutions
    reacted differently.
  • 80:21 - 80:27
    The Bailout of
    Long Term Capital Management
  • 80:28 - 80:30
    The Connecticut-based hedge fund
  • 80:30 - 80:32
    Long-Term Capital Management,
  • 80:33 - 80:34
    which accepted as clients
  • 80:35 - 80:39
    only high net worth individual
    investors and institutions,
  • 80:39 - 80:42
    had leveraged its $5 billion
    in client capital
  • 80:43 - 80:45
    by more than 25 times,
  • 80:46 - 80:48
    borrowing more than $100 billion
  • 80:48 - 80:51
    from the world’s banks.
  • 80:54 - 80:56
    When its losses
    threatened to undermine
  • 80:57 - 80:59
    the banks that had lent to it,
  • 80:59 - 81:02
    with the possibility of
    a systemic banking crisis
  • 81:02 - 81:05
    that would endanger the
    US financial system and economy,
  • 81:06 - 81:09
    the Federal Reserve
    organized a cartel like bailout
  • 81:09 - 81:12
    by leaning on Wall Street
    and international banks
  • 81:12 - 81:14
    to contribute funds
  • 81:14 - 81:16
    so that it could avoid default.
  • 81:19 - 81:22
    You’re right, the views from
    Washington and New York
  • 81:22 - 81:24
    certainly seemed quite flexible,
  • 81:25 - 81:28
    because soon after they told
    all the Asian countries
  • 81:28 - 81:30
    “no bailouts for
    financial institutions,”
  • 81:31 - 81:33
    when Long Term Capital Management,
  • 81:33 - 81:36
    a hedge fund in New York
    almost went bust,
  • 81:36 - 81:38
    suddenly a bailout was organized,
  • 81:38 - 81:42
    contradicting what they had
    just said to the Asian countries.
  • 81:42 - 81:46
    But they said that no public
    money was used for LTCM
  • 81:46 - 81:51
    But the meeting was held famously
    inside the Federal Reserve.
  • 81:52 - 81:56
    Why would the United States
    make demands on foreign nations
  • 81:56 - 81:58
    in the name of the free market,
  • 81:58 - 82:00
    when it has no intention
  • 82:01 - 82:04
    of enforcing the same rules
    within its own borders?
  • 82:06 - 82:08
    The examples of the
    Japanese and Asian crises
  • 82:09 - 82:12
    illustrate how crises
    can be engineered
  • 82:12 - 82:16
    to facilitate the redistribution
    of economic ownership,
  • 82:16 - 82:20
    and to implement legal,
    structural and political change.
  • 82:22 - 82:24
    Today similar events are at work
  • 82:25 - 82:26
    in the Eurozone area.
  • 82:27 - 82:32
    The European Debt Crisis.
  • 82:32 - 82:35
    Countries within
    the Euro currency bloc
  • 82:36 - 82:39
    have forfeited their right
    to a national currency
  • 82:39 - 82:42
    and handed this power to
    the European Central Bank.
  • 82:42 - 82:45
    NEWS: With me here in the studio
    is Richard Werner,
  • 82:45 - 82:48
    he is a professor at
    Southampton University,
  • 82:48 - 82:51
    What’s your advice to the ECB,
  • 82:51 - 82:55
    they’re meeting tomorrow,
    what would you be telling them?
  • 82:56 - 83:00
    Well, again, they have to focus on
    the quantity of credit creation
  • 83:00 - 83:02
    more than interest rates.
  • 83:03 - 83:06
    The ECB has a lot to learn
    from its past mistakes,
  • 83:07 - 83:09
    because I don’t think
    it really watched
  • 83:10 - 83:12
    credit creation carefully enough.
  • 83:12 - 83:15
    In Spain, Ireland,
    we had massive credit expansion
  • 83:15 - 83:18
    under the watch of the ECB,
  • 83:18 - 83:22
    interest rates of course
    are the same in the Eurozone,
  • 83:22 - 83:25
    but the quantity of credit cycle
    is very different.
  • 83:25 - 83:28
    There’s one interest rate
    for the whole euro area,
  • 83:28 - 83:31
    but in 2002 the ECB told the
    Bundesbank
  • 83:32 - 83:35
    to reduce its credit creation
    by the biggest amount in its history
  • 83:36 - 83:38
    and told the Irish central bank
    to print money
  • 83:39 - 83:40
    as if there was no tomorrow.
  • 83:41 - 83:43
    What is going to happen?
    Same interest rate,
  • 83:44 - 83:46
    is it the same growth? No.
  • 83:46 - 83:48
    Recession in Germany,
    boom in Ireland.
  • 83:50 - 83:52
    From 2004, under the ECB’s watch,
  • 83:53 - 83:56
    bank credit growth in Ireland,
    Greece, Portugal and Spain
  • 83:56 - 83:59
    increased by over 20% per annum
  • 83:59 - 84:02
    and property prices sky rocketed.
  • 84:06 - 84:08
    When bank credit fell,
  • 84:08 - 84:10
    property prices collapsed,
  • 84:10 - 84:12
    developers went bankrupt,
  • 84:13 - 84:14
    and the banking systems
  • 84:15 - 84:18
    of Ireland, Portugal, Spain and
    Greece became insolvent.
  • 84:19 - 84:22
    The ECB could have
    prevented these bubbles,
  • 84:22 - 84:27
    just as it could have ended the
    ensuing banking and economic crises.
  • 84:27 - 84:29
    But it refused to do so
  • 84:29 - 84:33
    until major political concessions
    had been made,
  • 84:33 - 84:37
    such as the transfer of fiscal
    and budgeting powers
  • 84:37 - 84:41
    from each sovereign state
    to the European Union.
  • 84:42 - 84:44
    In both Spain and Greece
  • 84:44 - 84:48
    youth unemployment
    has been pushed up to 50%,
  • 84:48 - 84:51
    forcing many youths
    to seek employment abroad.
  • 84:52 - 84:56
    Greek doctors for whose education
    Greek taxpayers have paid
  • 84:56 - 84:58
    now work in Germany.
  • 85:01 - 85:05
    The deliberations of the ECB's
    decision-making bodies are secret.
  • 85:06 - 85:08
    The mere attempt
    at influencing the ECB
  • 85:09 - 85:12
    –for instance through
    democratic debate and discussion–
  • 85:12 - 85:16
    is forbidden according to
    the Maastricht Treaty.
  • 85:18 - 85:20
    The ECB is an
    international organization
  • 85:21 - 85:24
    that is above and outside
    the laws and jurisdictions
  • 85:25 - 85:27
    of any individual nation.
  • 85:27 - 85:30
    Its senior staff
    carry diplomatic passports
  • 85:30 - 85:34
    and the files and documents inside
    the European Central Bank
  • 85:35 - 85:37
    cannot be searched or impounded
  • 85:37 - 85:40
    by any police force or
    public prosecutor.
  • 85:44 - 85:46
    The ECB is well known
    among economists
  • 85:47 - 85:49
    as one of the world’s most powerful
  • 85:50 - 85:52
    and least transparent central banks,
  • 85:53 - 85:54
    yet its former president
  • 85:55 - 85:56
    Jean-Claude Trichet
  • 85:57 - 85:58
    dealt with this problem
  • 85:59 - 86:02
    by merely asserting that
    there was no problem:
  • 86:04 - 86:07
    ”the ECB is one of the
    most transparent
  • 86:07 - 86:09
    central banks in the world
  • 86:09 - 86:11
    and has helped define
  • 86:12 - 86:15
    the state-of-the-art
    of central banking
  • 86:15 - 86:18
    in this domain,” he claimed.
  • 86:18 - 86:22
    World Economic Forum
    - Davos, Switzerland.
  • 86:22 - 86:24
    My name is Richard Werner
    I am an economist,
  • 86:25 - 86:27
    my question is for monsieur Trichet,
  • 86:27 - 86:29
    The question is,
  • 86:29 - 86:32
    where in the Maastricht treaty
    or ECB statutes
  • 86:32 - 86:35
    does it say that it is the job
    of the ECB
  • 86:35 - 86:39
    to back structural reform or
    any other political agenda.
  • 86:40 - 86:43
    I said very, very clearly, and we
    have always said very, very clearly,
  • 86:43 - 86:46
    that we had no responsibility
    in this domain.
  • 86:46 - 86:50
    We have a voice,
    and we say what we think.
  • 86:50 - 86:54
    And perhaps if we can help
    in explaining from our side
  • 86:54 - 86:57
    to the general people that
    they would be better off,
  • 86:57 - 87:01
    perhaps it would help
    Europe embarking
  • 87:01 - 87:04
    in this implementation of
    structural reforms,
  • 87:05 - 87:07
    which is so important,
  • 87:07 - 87:09
    and there is a consensus on that,
  • 87:10 - 87:12
    the diagnosis again, is ehh ehh ehh
  • 87:12 - 87:15
    a very very very large consensus
  • 87:15 - 87:18
    on this eh, on this point.
  • 87:25 - 87:27
    The European Commission,
  • 87:27 - 87:28
    an unelected group
  • 87:29 - 87:32
    whose aim is to build a
    United States of Europe
  • 87:32 - 87:34
    with all the trappings
    of a unified state,
  • 87:35 - 87:38
    has an interest in
    weakening individual governments
  • 87:38 - 87:42
    and the influence of the
    democratic parliaments of Europe.
  • 87:45 - 87:48
    It turns out that the evidence
    for central-bank independence
  • 87:49 - 87:52
    that was relied upon
    in the Maastricht Treaty
  • 87:52 - 87:56
    derived from a single study
    that was commissioned
  • 87:56 - 87:59
    by none other than
    the European Commission itself,
  • 87:59 - 88:03
    published in 1992 under the
    name “ one market, one money”
  • 88:03 - 88:05
    the study purported to demonstrate
  • 88:06 - 88:09
    that central bank independence
    led to low inflation.
  • 88:09 - 88:12
    James Forder, an Oxford academic,
  • 88:12 - 88:14
    has since demonstrated
  • 88:14 - 88:17
    that this study was manipulated
  • 88:17 - 88:19
    to obtain the desired result.
  • 88:22 - 88:25
    The story we’re being told
    by the central banks
  • 88:25 - 88:27
    does not add up,
  • 88:27 - 88:30
    and there is evidence that
    central banks work differently
  • 88:31 - 88:35
    from what they would like us
    to believe as to how they work.
  • 88:36 - 88:37
    The world over,
  • 88:38 - 88:41
    central banks hold significant,
    yet little understood powers.
  • 88:42 - 88:45
    Often independent,
    unaccountable and obscure,
  • 88:46 - 88:48
    central banks operate in the shadows,
  • 88:49 - 88:51
    yet their actions affect us all.
  • 88:53 - 88:56
    Central banks in almost
    all countries worldwide,
  • 88:56 - 89:00
    and the IMF has helped
    a lot in achieving this,
  • 89:00 - 89:02
    they have become totally independent
  • 89:02 - 89:04
    and in practice not accountable
  • 89:05 - 89:07
    to any democratic institution.
  • 89:07 - 89:09
    And accountability to parliament
  • 89:09 - 89:12
    is usually minor and
    in practice meaningless.
  • 89:12 - 89:14
    Whether it is the Bank of Japan,
  • 89:14 - 89:17
    the Federal Reserve,
    the Bank of England
  • 89:17 - 89:19
    or the European Central Bank,
  • 89:19 - 89:22
    examples of central bank deception
    abound.
  • 89:24 - 89:26
    In the United States in the 1920s,
  • 89:26 - 89:29
    banks were encouraged
    to create money
  • 89:29 - 89:31
    and give it to speculators,
  • 89:32 - 89:34
    the resulting depression
  • 89:34 - 89:36
    persuaded
    the freedom loving Americans
  • 89:37 - 89:39
    that a decentralized federal system
  • 89:39 - 89:41
    without strong national controls,
  • 89:41 - 89:43
    could not work.
  • 89:46 - 89:49
    In the 1990s
    the Japanese were persuaded
  • 89:49 - 89:51
    that their economic system
  • 89:51 - 89:55
    which had brought considerable
    prosperity and equality,
  • 89:55 - 89:57
    needed to be changed into
  • 89:57 - 90:00
    a so-called free market system.
  • 90:00 - 90:04
    And while Japan's transformation
    was not yet complete
  • 90:05 - 90:07
    the central bankers struck again,
  • 90:07 - 90:11
    with an IMF led raid
    on the Asian Tiger economies.
  • 90:16 - 90:18
    The present European debt crises
  • 90:19 - 90:22
    is yet another example
    of central bank deception.
  • 90:24 - 90:26
    To create a public consensus
  • 90:26 - 90:29
    for the need for structural reform
  • 90:29 - 90:31
    by purposefully creating a recession
  • 90:31 - 90:33
    and then needlessly prolonging it,
  • 90:34 - 90:36
    must constitute an abuse of power.
  • 90:40 - 90:43
    Do citizens really
    want to be manipulated
  • 90:43 - 90:46
    in such a costly and
    dishonest manner?
  • 91:13 - 91:15
    The End
Title:
Princes of the Yen: Central Banks and the Transformation of the Economy
Description:

"Only power that is hidden, is power that endures."

Central Banks are some of the most secretive and misunderstood institutions in the world. What powers do they wield? Who’s interests do they serve? How do their actions affect our everyday lives?

Set in 20th Century Japan, the documentary explores the role and power of Central Banks, and how they can be used to change a country's economic, political and social structures.

A documentary based on a book by Professor Richard Werner.

“Mastery of filmmaking. An engaging and dynamic narrative supported by visual aesthetics”

Simeon Roberts - Film Critic, http://filmgods.co.uk/

"Essential viewing if you've any interest at all in economics or politics" - Steve Morrissey
Film Reviwer & Critic, http://www.moviesteve.com/review-princes-of-the-yen-2014/

“Blows open the widely held consensus that ‘independent’ central banks are a force for economic good." Josh Ryan-Collins - New Economics Foundation and co-author of “Where Does Money Come From?"

"A fascinating look at the need for better public understanding of just how much money can affect the world we live in.” Ben Dyson - Founder Positive Money & co-author of ‘Modernising Money’

Website: http://princesoftheyen.com/

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Video Language:
English, British
Duration:
01:32:39

English subtitles

Revisions